Paul Skenes makes his second start of the season on Friday as he squares off against a familiar foe in the Chicago Cubs.
The Pittsburgh Pirates ultimately prevailed on Saturday despite a fifth-inning bullpen implosion in Skenes' debut — the right-hander finished with four-plus innings of three-run ball with seven strikeouts.
Instead of a Skenes vs. Justin Steele Friday matinee rematch, 34-year-old Kyle Hendricks takes the mound opposite the rookie. It's an early island game on Friday, so you know it's time to have some fun with a Pirates vs. same game parlay. I want to see some offense while enjoying Skenes' stardom in the process, so I broke down three hitters who I think hold an advantage.
If you want to take it a step further, pick your favorite to hit a home run. That'll really juice the odds on this same game parlay. Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long-shot parlay for a reason.
Here's my Pirates vs. Cubs Same Game Parlay.
Pirates vs. Cubs Same Game Parlay (+1400; bet365)
- Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Christopher Morel Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Total Bases
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases
Against a soft tosser like Kyle Hendricks, there’s a lot to love in backing the free-swinging Oneil Cruz.
Cruz is in the 100th percentile in bat speed and ranks inside the top 5% of all hitters in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He faced Hendricks just a few days ago and took him deep to right field.
His recent at-bats show a lot of promise, too. From a pure balls-in-play perspective, Cruz has seen his hard-hit rate skyrocket over the last couple of weeks. With it, his isolated power has jumped. Over the last two weeks, Cruz is batting .333 with four home runs and a 60% extra-base hit rate.
Obviously there are always strikeout concerns with Cruz because of his free-swinging nature, but this is also Hendricks we are talking about. He is in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in whiff rate (16.1%) and strikes out just shy of 17% of batters faced.
Hendricks is very hittable. He relies on inducing soft contact and keeping the ball on the ground. While most of the time he’s able to do so, he remains in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in xBA. He has also allowed at least one home run in every start this season, and two-plus in 50% of his starts.
It depends how crazy you want to get here, but I think Cruz is the perfect candidate to take advantage for the second straight time against Hendricks. He won’t look to walk, rather attack and swing out of his cleats. And when he makes contact, oh boy will it carry.
Christopher Morel Over 1.5 Total Bases
We just talked about the recent success Cruz had, so let’s keep the ball rolling with a Cub.
When Paul Skenes made his MLB debut against Chicago, it was Morel who took him to the warning track in deep center — just short of a home run.
Morel may not have the results to back up how well he’s been hitting the ball of late, but it’s only a matter of time before he turns it around. The third-year pro is hitting just .208 this season, but his xBA is all the way up at .273. He also has posted a career-best .521 xSLG through the first month and a half, inside the top 8% of all hitters.
You can tell from this graph, too, that Morel has been crushing the ball of late. He is well above league average and it makes sense given his elite bat speed (98th percentile).
There’s a lot to love about Morel offensively. He’s even improved his strikeout rate by 10% and is walking more as he adjusts to everyday play.
Skenes has elite stuff, there’s no denying that. He flashed just how high his ceiling can be, and if it weren’t for a complete two-out implosion from the Bucs bullpen, Skenes would’ve left his debut with an impressive stat line.
But the fire-throwing righty was hit pretty hard when the Cubs were able to get the ball in play — which makes sense, considering the speed at which Skenes throws. He was barreled on 20% of balls and had an xSLG of .581.
A player like Morel can take advantage of the heater, like he nearly did in the first inning of Skenes’ debut. I’m willing to back Morel given the underlying metrics showing positive regression and familiarity surrounding Skenes, given he just saw him less than a week ago.
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Total Bases
I’m going to continue to pick on Kyle Hendricks. There’s a reason why he is in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in xBA (.302), and despite Pittsburgh’s struggles against right-handed pitching, seeing him for the second time in a week should bring familiarity and a sense of comfortability.
That brings me to Bryan Reynolds, who has been extremely quiet to begin the season. He is hitting just .249, but he has finally started seeing the ball better in May. Over the last week — thanks in large part to a five-hit performance on Monday — Reynolds is hitting .308 with a 50% extra-basehit rate.
He also seems to like hitting away from PNC Park as his home/road splits are stark. Reynolds is hitting .287 on the road with a .457 slugging percentage. At home? Those numbers drop to .205 and .359, respectively.
In fact, Reynolds is due for some positive regression based on plate appearances alone. While his barrel rate has dropped from last season, it remains at a healthy 9%. His plate discipline is elite and he is one of the toughest outs in the Pirates lineup.
While Reynolds is better against left-handed pitching, he still poses as an extra-base threat against the Hendricks. Of Reynolds' six hits against the 34-year-old, four (75)% have gone for extra bases.
Last year, Reynolds had a 118 wRC+ against right-handed pitching — a number that I expect him to end around this season. I'm just not fazed by his slow start to the season and love the matchup against Hendricks.
