Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, April 21.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Odds Today 4/21
  |   |   |   |
Padres vs. Tigers
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +120 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -145 |
Randy Vasquez (SD) vs. Keider Montero (DET)
The Padres' Luis Arraez will almost certainly miss Monday's contest in Detroit — if not additional time — following an ugly collision on Sunday night in Houston.
Any extended absence is a potentially significant loss for a Padres lineup already missing fellow lefties Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth and Jason Heyward.
I'd project a fully healthy Padres lineup for a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. However, I have Monday's expected lineup projected for a 102 wRC+, which is still above league average, but with four below-average bats against a righty rather than one (their catcher spot).
The pitching matchup between Keider Montero (projected FIP range of 4.36 to 4.65) and Randy Vasquez (projected range of 4.49 to 5.00) doesn't point towards run suppression.
Still, Montero has a nice sinker/slider combination (110 and 104 Stuff+ respectively), while Vasquez features a pair of above-average breaking balls (116 Stuff+ slider, 106 curveball for his career). Both have the potential to improve closer to league-average arms.
Vasquez has more significant issues with command with a career 8.9% walk rate compared to Montero's 7.3%. Conversely, Montero has surrendered a higher number of homers (1.92 HR/9 vs. 1.09 for Vasquez) even though they have a similar batted-ball profile.
Still, Comerica Park is a pitcher-friendly venue (roughly -6% run scoring vs. the MLB average). And conditions should be slightly more pitcher friendly on Monday with a 15-20 mph cross-breeze blowing from first to third base, lowering the real-feel significantly from 64 degrees at first pitch down to 52.
Moreover, the Padres are in a difficult spot, traveling from Houston to Detroit overnight following Sunday Night Baseball, while the Tigers played on Sunday afternoon at home.
There is a potentially quantifiable "hangover effect" for offenses traveling overnight following the Sunday night game.
I found 121 instances in the past 15 seasons (overnight travel to a new city following Sunday Night Baseball) — those teams scored an average of 0.42 runs below their season-long average.
I projected this total at 7.58 runs and would bet the Under to 8 (-105).
Pick: Under 8.5 (bet to 8, -105)
| | | |
Phillies vs. Mets
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8 -102o / -118u | +105 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 8 -102o / -118u | -125 |
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs. Tylor Megill (NYM)
Aaron Nola has struggled to start the 2025 season (0-4, 6.65 ERA). But while he's pitching at reduced velocity (91.2 mph, vs. 92.5 last season), his underlying indicators (4.01 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, 16% K-BB, 104 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+) show that he's mostly the same pitcher as recent years (3.34 xFIP, 20.4% K-BB%, 111 Stuff+, 112 Pitching+).
The Mets have seen Nola a ton, however, and the current Mets hitters own an .833 OPS against him in 312 career plate appearances (24% K%, 12.1% BB%, 14 HR). Pete Alonso (six HR, 1.117 OPS in 57 PA) and the newly-acquired Juan Soto (three HR, 15 BB, 1.051 OPS in 53 PA) have done most of that damage.
Tylor Megill (3.49 xERA, 3.40 xFIP, 15.1% K-BB%, 115 Stuff+, 111 Pitching+, 3.07 botERA) has been far more successful in a more limited sample (94 PA) against the Phillies, limiting them to a .545 OPS (24.4% K%, 8.5% BB%). J.T. Realmuto has registered two of the five extra-base hits against him.
And as I've discussed a number of times in this space, Megill has shown a different pitch mix this season, incorporating his sinker (114 Stuff+) and slider (104) more than ever before (combined 45% usage vs. 23% last season), after changing the shape of his slider and modifying his release point:
Tylor Megill, Wicked 86mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/6wdvZ2mOAo
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 29, 2025
The Mets have had one of the top bullpens in baseball thus far (4th in xFIP, 7th in K-BB%), but the Phillies project as the better unit, holding the top-ranked spots in pitch modeling metrics (108 Stuff+, 111 Pitching+, 3.07 botERA).
Despite winds blowing out to left field (9-10 mph), Citi Field will see chilly temperatures for late April on Monday — 54 degrees at first pitch, with a real feel of 45.
I set the total at 7.43 runs on Monday in Queens; bet Under 8 to -110.
Pick: Under 8 (bet to -110)
| | | |
Blue Jays vs. Astros
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +118 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -140 |
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs. Hunter Brown (HOU)
I highlighted Kevin Gausman before his start on Tuesday, noting his improved velocity (half a tick on his fastball and 1.5 mph on his slider), pitch modeling metrics (102 Stuff+ and 2.63 botERA vs. 95 and 3.81 in 2024) and results in 2025 (3.37 xERA, 3.92 xFIP, 18.7% K-BB%), relative to 2024 (4.71 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, 14% K-BB%), which now looks like the outlier campaign during the peak of his career (3.69 xFIP, 17.8% K-BB%)
Gausman used a sinker last year about 5% of the time, but the pitch was hit hard (.288 xBA, .490 xSLG) — so he stopped using it.
Conversely, Hunter Brown's sinker helped him transform into one of the best pitchers in baseball, posting a 2.37 ERA and 3.29 xFIP across 28 starts and 171 innings since incorporating the pitch (124 Stuff+).
Brown's velocity has also increased this season (fastball up 1.2 mph, sinker up one mph, slider up 1.7 mph, curveball up 1.3 mph), and his Stuff+ rating has improved from 105 to 115, and his botERA has gone from 4.21 to 3.28.
Brown projects (projected FIP range of 3.49 to 3.79) as a significantly better pitcher than Gausman (projected range of 3.82 to 4.43) going forward — and I'm incredibly high on Brown.
That said, I don't project as big of a delta between them given Gasuman's seeming return to All-Star form.
