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The first day of the 2022 MLB postseason is finally here. With the new format and expanded field, we are treated to four Game 1s in this newfound Wild Card Round.
The action gets started with Rays vs. Guardians around noon ET, and goes throughout the afternoon with Phillies vs. Cardinals and Mariners vs. Blue Jays. The night wraps up with Padres vs. Mets.
We're focused on the afternoon slate here, and our analysts have picks on all three games. We have moneyline picks, first five innings, as well as a player prop that has value.
Here are our best bets from Friday's Major League Baseball postseason slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Rays vs. Guardians
Charlie DiSturco: This line has been quickly hammered down and for good reason. The Tampa Bay Rays should be favored here and hold a significant edge on the mound.
Shane McClanahan was in the AL Cy Young race for the entirety of the regular season and has taken drastic strides in his second season. The lefty has cut his hard-hit rate by over 13% and his xSLG by over .100.
McClanahan has a 2.79 xERA in 28 games and opponents have a .207 xBA. His strikeout rate is also an elite 30.3%, which ranks in the 94th percentile of all pitchers.
He is also even more effective on the road, where he has a 2.08 ERA in 10 starts.
Opposite McClanahan is Shane Bieber, who has some alarming advanced metrics despite a 2.88 ERA. For starters, his hard-hit rate is 43% and his xERA is 3.51.
Opponents have a .245 xBA against the right-hander, which ranks in the bottom 15% of all pitchers. Bieber has a 2.65 ERA on the road, but that jumps to 3.22 at Progressive Field.
The Rays’ offense ranks one slot higher than the Guardians in wRC+ and while the bullpen is worse — 15th to Cleveland’s No. 2 spot — the backend is dominant.
Pete Fairbanks has a 1.13 ERA across 24 innings and setup man Jason Adams has a 1.56 ERA over 61 1/3 innings. Even lefty specialist Brooks Raley boasts a 2.68 ERA.
All this to say I am not worried if the game comes down to the wire against the Guardians. I expect McClanahan to exit with a safe lead as the Rays get to Bieber and shock the Guardians at home.
Jules Posner: In a playoff Shane showdown, the Rays' Shane McClanahan gets the start against the Guardians' Shane Bieber. However, neither Shane has experienced much success in their playoff careers.
This matchup may prove to be a real pitcher's duel, but McClanahan and the Rays' bounty of left-handed relief options may have the edge in Game 1. The Guardians' offense has been in the bottom-third of MLB in terms of wRC+ at home against lefties.
The Guardians' biggest power bat — Jose Ramirez — has struggled mightily at home against lefties this season and it will be up to the supporting cast to manufacture runs against a tough Rays' pitching staff.
The Rays have had offensive struggles of their own on the road against right-handers, but Randy Arozarena and Wander Franco are returning for the playoffs and they could kick things into high gear starting Friday.
The Rays come in as underdogs in the series and in Game 1, but the moneyline for Game 1 sits right at +100. This game may be closer to a coin flip, but the Rays seem to have an edge considering their experience and track record of playoff success. Play their moneyline to -110.
Phillies vs. Cardinals
Anthony Dabbundo: Zack Wheeler has pitched 15 innings since returning from the injured list and has 15 strikeouts,. He's also allowed just one run and issued one walk. The Phillies right-hander faces a Cardinals lineup that is in its worst offensive split against righties. He's seen them twice this season and allowed no runs and struck out 10 over 14 innings.
Wheeler is the better pitcher than his counterpart José Quintana, and it's not particularly close. Quintana's 3.86 xERA is solid this season, but he's primarily dependent on weak contact with a 20% strikeout rate. Wheeler is much better by Pitching+ and K-BB% and his xERA is just 3.10.
The Phillies are also in their superior offensive split facing a lefty. Even though the lineup will have four lefties in it with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh, the Phillies have a 115 wRC+ against lefties this season and a 123 wRC+ since the trade deadline. That post-deadline number is third best in baseball.
The Phillies' bullpen could get exposed, but while Wheeler is in the game, the Phillies should be bigger favorites than they are, even on the road.
Kenny Ducey: Jose Quintana is an unserious Game 1 starter in any playoff series, let alone a three-game set where the opening game means a heck of a lot. And, while you may fear the home team here, remember that the Cardinals went 1-3 at home against the Nationals and Braves in the 2019 postseason.
I’m going to roll with the better pitcher in a landslide, and that’s Zack Wheeler. The right-hander sat around the top quarter of the league in strikeout rate all season long and should deaden the dangerous power bats of St. Louis with his .343 xSLG, which comes in more than 60 points better than league average.
The right-hander gave up just 13 home runs all season in 153 innings, and was exceptional against St. Louis this year.
In two starts — one in Philly and one at Busch Stadium — Wheeler held the Cardinals scoreless through 14 innings, sitting down 10 against a team which really doesn’t strike out all that often.
He should come up with the goods here, and while Quintana’s number look shiny on the other side of this matchup, it’s important to remember that Philly is also a top-6 offense in wRC+ over the second half, and ranks sixth in wRC+ against lefties this year.
Quintana got away with plenty this year, pitching to a 3.86 xERA, and we have years and years worth of data to tell us he’s not very good. Roll with the better arm and the offense that’s equally as good, at worst.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays
Nicholas Martin: Alek Manoah has shined down the stretch for the Blue Jays, pitching to a spectacular ERA of 1.01 since August 21st. HE has thrived in a number of very important spots during that span, such as games against the Yankees and Rays, which held heavy playoff implications. By every indication Manoah has ever shown us in the majors, he is built for this spot.
He and Mariners starter Luis Castillo hold nearly identical marks with regards to xERA, xSLG and xBA this season, yet Manoah has gotten to those marks with some steady progression in form down the stretch. Castillo has taken a slight step backwards with the Mariners in the AL, if anything, and I believe that is a positive note for the Jays.
Toronto has offensively been the third-best team in the league by wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, and has been the best team in the AL altogether by wRC+ since the start of September.
Therefore, Manoah could certainly be leaving with a lead if he performs the way I am expecting, considering the chances that Toronto's high-powered offense can get something off of Castillo.
At that point, the Jays would just need to pitch out 6-8 outs, which is doable. Jordan Romano has been one of the best closers in baseball, and Yimi Garcia, Zach Pop, Anthony Bass and others offer some strong options behind that.
Manoah has 25 wins in 51 career starts, and I do not think it's as unlikely he records another one here as a number of +220 suggests (31.3% implied probability). Backing Manoah to record a win at +220 is my favorite play on this contest.
