All 30 teams square off on Tuesday night in a jam-packed slate.
Among the most highly anticipated matchups is out in Atlanta as the Mets and Braves begin a three-game series. New York was most recently swept by the Blue Jays and looks to bounce back against its NL East rival. The best pitching matchup is out in San Diego where Logan Gilbert and Joe Musgrove square off in Mariners vs. Padres.
Here's how I'm betting Tuesday's slate.
Red Sox vs. Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
James Paxton vs. Shane Bieber
Happy Shane Bieber Day!
I’ve written at length about Bieber’s fall from greatness over the last four seasons as the right-hander has begun his descent to mediocrity. Bieber’s velocity now sits in the low 90s and he’s seen his strikeout rate drop from 41.1% in his Cy Young-winning season in 2020 to 16.1% this year.
Bieber ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in hard-hit rate and xBA, and his whiff rate has nearly been cut by three. It’s clear he just isn’t the same pitcher he once was with career lows across the board.
The Red Sox offense, on the other hand, ranks inside the top 10 in wRC+ and isolated power against right-handed pitching. Expect a lefty-heavy lineup against Bieber, who has been skating the majority of the season. His xERA (4.89) remains a run higher than actual.
Rather than trusting the Red Sox in the full game — their bullpen ranks 25th in xFIP vs. the Guardians just outside the top 10 — I’m backing James Paxton over the first five innings (-104).
He should be the favorite here despite throwing on the road. I didn’t expect him to have close to the success he’s had since returning to the bigs after an injury-plagued couple of years. His fastball, which he throws nearly 60% of the time, grades out above average and his strikeout rate has jumped to 33.8%.
Paxton is an interesting case. He still gives up a lot of barrels but opponents have just a .233 xBA against him. His high whiff rate and ability to induce softer contact than Bieber is why I like him as a slight underdog here. The Guardians' offense, though pesky and hard to strikeout, has been extremely ineffective. They are 28th in wRC+ vs. LHP.
I’m going to continue to fade Bieber, who just isn’t the same pitcher he once was.
Mets vs. Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET
Carlos Carrasco vs. Bryce Elder
Another player I’ve discussed at length is Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder, who is tabbed with the start on Tuesday night. The right-hander has an xERA (4.16) over 2.5 runs higher than actual (1.92) and has been long overdue for negative regression.
Elder relies on generating chases. He only throws 37.7% of all pitches inside the zone but attacks the edges and corners tirelessly. The Mets are a hard team to beat in that regard — they’re third in BB/K vs. RHP — and if Elder isn’t getting close calls, he’ll have to attack the zone.
The end result? He ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in hard-hit rate and has an xBA of .262. He is able to limit barrels, but the Mets' offense isn’t a power-hitting lineup. A lot of their players are tough to beat at the plate and force the defense in front of them to make plays.
Good at-bats against Elder will lead to plenty of scoring opportunities. The Mets are a patient and strong enough offense to get to Elder, who has given up two runs or fewer in every May start.
Opposite him is Carlos Carrasco, who has turned in back-to-back quality starts for New York. But the right-hander has plenty of issues that leave him prone to being crushed.
His velocity sits in the low 90s and he relies on pitching to contact and forcing ground balls at a high rate. The issue has been Carrasco’s control (9.5 BB%) and career-worst xBA (.265).
His pitches don’t have the same effectiveness and most opponents have taken advantage. His xSLG sits at .472 and his hard-hit rate remains near 40%. He’s a mid-5s pitcher both actual and expected ERA wise and that’s exactly what Carrasco is: a below-average arm.
Though the Braves' offense ranks 13th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, they are third in isolated power.
The Mets also enter with a bottom-10 bullpen according to xFIP, and aside from David Robertson, it has plenty of glaring issues.
Both offenses should find plenty of success on Tuesday night and force an early night for Elder and Carrasco. I’d bet the over 9.5 (-120) to 10 (-110).
Orioles vs. Brewers, 7:40 p.m. ET
Kyle Gibson vs. Freddy Peralta
You can find my full thoughts on this game here, but this is a perfect spot to buy low on Freddy Peralta and sell high on Kyle Gibson.
Peralta has long been a steady arm for Milwaukee, and despite an increase in velocity and Stuff+ rating to his fastball and slider, the right-hander has struggled to begin the season. His barrel rate has jumped to a career-worst 9.7% and expected indicators slate Peralta in the mid-4s.
Even with a dip in strikeouts, I expect Peralta to find his rhythm in June. His pitch-mix remains strong and he’s still generating a whiff rate that ranks in the 70th percentile. The success just hasn’t come.
Opposite him is Gibson, who has below-average numbers across the board, yet has posted his lowest ERA since 2018. His strikeout rate has dropped to 15.9% and he’s not generating swings and misses or chases.
Despite an increase in xBA, xSLG and hard-hit% from last year — he had a 5.05 ERA — Gibson’s ERA sits below 4. I would expect that to negatively regress and Tuesday is a perfect opportunity.
Especially with Cedric Mullins’ injury and Gunnar Henderson entering the week with a back injury, the price on the Brewers is too cheap for me to pass up. They have a significant starting pitcher edge in my mind with a strong back end of a bullpen.
I would back the Brewers on the moneyline (-120) up to (-130).
Mariners vs. Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET
Logan Gilbert vs. Joe Musgrove
A first-inning blowup from Logan Gilbert against the Yankees his last time out set the stage for a tough outing. But the right-hander has been pitching much better than last season — when he had a 3.20 ERA — even if the baseline numbers don’t indicate as such.
Gilbert ranks in the top 10% of all pitchers in chase rate, and his walk rate is a mere 4.3%. His strikeouts have taken a drastic jump forward while he’s shored up across the board on hard-hit rate, xBA and xSLG.
He still runs into occasional barrel issues, but his xERA (3.03) is over a run lower than actual (4.08), indicating positive regression is on the horizon. He has an unsustainable 61.8 LOB%, nearly 10% lower than his career average.
He matches up with another pitcher I am extremely high on, and that’s Joe Musgrove. After a shaky start to the season, Musgrove has been dialed in. The right-hander has posted back-to-back quality starts, giving up just two runs across 12 1/3 innings.
Musgrove has actually improved on his xBA (.221) and hard-hit rate (32.1%) from last year despite a decrease in strikeouts. His command remains above average, and Musgrove ranks inside the top 15% of all pitchers in chase rate.
Musgrove is also due for positive regression. His xERA is 3.46 while actual sits over a run higher at 4.71. His LOB% is also down nearly 10% from the last two seasons when he took a step forward under the Padres pitching staff.
I am extremely high on both starts tonight and like the under 7.5 (-105). Both bullpens are in the top half of MLB and Seattle has the No. 1 xFIP.
