MLB Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions (Sunday, July 26): Braves vs. Mets

Braves vs. Mets Odds, Prediction, Pick

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New York Mets fans are cursing Edwin Diaz's name yet again as he blew his eighth save as a Met giving up a game-tying home run to Marcell Ozuna.

The Braves then went on to plate three runs in the top of the 10th inning and held on for a 5-3 win. With the National League East being a gauntlet this season, Sunday night's matchup is crucial, especially in a 60 game sprint.

Braves

Projected Lineup (via FantasyLabs)

The Braves offense looked stagnant for the first 17 innings of their season until Ozuna hit a game-tying home run in the top of ninth inning Saturday. Atlanta then blew open the doors in the top of 10th to win 5-3.

The addition of Ozuna to their already lethal offense over the offseason, puts the Braves in contention coming into the 2020 season. Atlanta had a top-10 offense a year ago in terms of wRC+ and wOBA, so Ozuna should only bolster that offense.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

Braves Probable Starter

Sean Newcomb, LHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (Via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Sean Newcomb is predominantly a fastball pitcher, but has a sick curveball and slider as complimentary pitches. He has decent velocity on his fastball, but it's average at best, yielding a .340 wOBA in 2019.

However, both his curveball and slider are almost untouchable. In 2019, opponents were hitting under .200 against both of those pitches and his curveball produced a 43.3% whiff rate. As you can see it has some nasty break on it.

Mets

Projected Lineup (via FantasyLabs)

The Mets offense has relatively been held in check, only producing four runs on 15 hits through their first two games. However, Newcomb is a step down from Soroka and Fried, it should provide them with a much better opportunity since they ranked 6th in MLB in wRC+ versus lefties a season ago.

Mets Probable Starter

Rick Porcello, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (Via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Rick Porcello is primarily a fastball/sinker guy. He uses the the two interchangeably, along with a slider to keep hitters off balance. He joins the Mets after tumultuous run in Boston that ended with a 5+ xFIP in 2019. When Porcello is at his best, he has high ground ball rate, which is ideal for most guys who throw sinkers.

In 2019, he struggled to keep the ball down in the zone, posting the worst ground ball rate of his career, which led to second highest HR/9 and Hard Hit Rate of his career. He'll get a boost from playing at Citi Field, which is pitchers park, but he'll have to improve on his control or he could find himself out of the Mets rotation.

Bullpens

Even though Diaz blew the save yesterday, the Mets project out as the best bullpen in baseball in my model. With the addition of Dellin Betances, they now have an elite bullpen that is capable of shutting down any offense from the sixth inning on.

As you can see from the table above, they have the advantage over the Braves bullpen in this matchup.

Braves vs. Mets Projections and Pick

As the current line stands I don't see any value on this game. However, at the time of writing this 79% of the money is on the Mets (per the Action Network App), so if the Braves line moves to +106 or better I would bet it.

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