The Blue Jays totally dominated the first two games of their series against the Angels, but I'm making this same-game parlay Angels-based. While neither team is vying for playoff positioning, both are trying to see what they have for next season.
We'll see a pair of veteran pitchers — Tyler Anderson for the Angels and Jose Berrios for the Blue Jays — in this series finale.
Sean Paul's Blue Jays vs Angels MLB Parlay Picks for Wednesday
- Angels ML (-108)
- Tyler Anderson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-106)
- Mickey Moniak 2+ Total Bases (+150)
Parlay Odds: +587 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
My SGP Pick #1: Los Angeles Angels
Moneyline -108
I've been eagerly awaiting Anderson's regression, but what if it doesn't happen? That's where I'm starting to lean.
Anderson made the All-Star team and found new career life with his elite changeup, which has led to his 88th-percentile average exit velocity and 90th-percentile hard-hit rate.
The L.A. starter owns a 2.99 ERA And 4.39 FIP, which is a pretty jarring disparity. However, the veteran southpaw has allowed three or fewer runs in four consecutive games and just held the Yankees to one run in six innings.
The Blue Jays also struggle to hit lefties, ranking 24th in MLB with a wRC+ of 90 this year.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is Toronto's only truly scary hitter, so Anderson likely will navigate around him. No other lineup regular typically hits lefties, as George Springer and Alejandro Kirk both bat below the Mendoza line in that split.
While I don't think Anderson regresses much, Berrios is more likely to regress.
Berrios enters this start with a 3.97 ERA and 5.15 FIP, with the lowest K/9 of his career. Plus, his 2.71 BB/9 and 1.64 HR/9 are both below league average.
Of larger concern, Berrios ranks in the 11th percentile in xBA, 16th in hard-hit rate and 25th in exit velocity. He, as opposed to Anderson, gets hit super hard. That's why I'm more of a believer in Anderson than Berrios in this matchup.
The Angels offense isn't anything special. It ranks 23rd in MLB with a 93rd wRC+ in the past month.
The good news is that Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel have become solid major-league hitters. That changes the Angels' lineup since both have reached base at a clip over a .400 in the past month.
Odds are Neto and Schanuel present the bottom of the Angels' order chances to bring runners in. Can they convert? I lean toward yes.
My SGP Pick #2: Tyler Anderson
Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-106)
I'm backing Anderson some more. He dismantled the Yankees, who regularly got caught in front of his changeup and swung late at his 89 mph fastball. We'll see more of the same from Toronto.
Anderson has punched out more than five batters in four of his last six starts, and he went over six in each of those outings.
Sure, Toronto's season-long 19.9% K rate against southpaws could mean Anderson's total is worth fading. I'm thinking in a more current fashion.
The Blue Jays' strikeout rate isn't indicative of their current team since most stats include now-former Blue Jays Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who strike out fewer than 15% of the time.
Most of Toronto's current roster — excluding Kirk, Guerrero and Ernie Clement — punches out 20% of the time or more, including over 23% from Leo Jimenez, Joey Loperfido and Daulton Varsho.
My SGP Pick #3: Mickey Moniak
2+ Total Bases (+150)
While I spent plenty of time contemplating the final leg of this SGP, I kept landing on one name for a total bases prop: Mickey Moniak.
The former No. 1 overall pick has exceeded two total bases in six of his past eight games. It's good to see Moniak rolling this year following a career resurgence last season that was largely based on his platoon ability.
The Angels play Moniak exclusively against right-handed pitchers, and he'll see plenty of hittable pitches at the bottom of the order. Over his past 15 games, Moniak is slashing .321./.339/.491.
Moniak went hitless on Tuesday but hit his eighth homer of the year in the first game against the Blue Jays to follow up his trio of hits against the Nationals.
Although Berrios boasts reverse splits — he limits lefties to a .216 batting average compared to .272 against righties — I believe in Moniak's ability to punish right-handers.
I love backing the hot hand, and Moniak is hot.
