This is the game I feel least certain about this weekend. I'd really prefer to fade both teams, which rate around league average on the season, with the Chargers 17th in DVOA through 17 weeks, just behind the Patriots at 15th. I'm not convinced either of these teams is built to make a postseason run. With the Chargers, it's the offensive line. LA ranks 31st in pressure rate allowed and dead last in Pass Block Win Rate, and that has neutered the offense — though the Patriots struggle to get pressure when not blitzing and rank bottom five in sack differential. I'm also a bit suspicious of Jesse Minter's defense, which ranks top three in the amount of zone played, light boxes, and lowest blitz percentage. That's the profile of a defense that's great against bad teams but beatable by elite quaterbacks like Drake Maye. The Chargers are an impressive 4-3 against playoff teams with the league's second-best defense in those games, though the offense is worst of any playoff team — even worse than the Panthers — in them. At least the Chargers have been tested, though. The Patriots played the league's softest schedule by DVOA both offensively and defensively, a complete cakewalk of a schedule. They went only 1-2 against teams at .500 or better all season. Depending on what you think of the Bills, you could argue this might be the best opponent New England has played all season! Despite their gaudy record, the Patriots have some serious flaws. The run defense cratered down the stretch, 30th in EPA per play over the back half of the schedule. Milton Williams' return will help, but that's much more than one player. New England also ranks 21st in red zone offense and dead last defensively. There are real matchup concerns too. The Chargers rank third in Success Rate on late downs, so if the Patriots can't pressure Justin Herbert, he could pick them apart. LA is also far better running the ball outside, 3rd in EPA per play there versus 31st inside, and New England's defense ranks 27th versus outside runs on the season. New England looks vulnerable over the middle of the field too. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots shred single high defenses, best in the league by EPA per play, but Minter's defense plays among the most two-high looks in the league. New England leads the league in explosive passing and ranks first in EPA per play on deep passes, but so does the Chargers defense — an awesome -0.08 EPA per play on the season. It's wild to have a negative number in that metric when one big downfield play is worth so much! The Chargers defense has more interceptions this season (19) than passing TDs allowed (16). Drake Maye's MVP case this season was built around how much he elevated this squad as a one-man show. If the Chargers defensive shell can limit those big Maye plays, New England is in trouble. The Patriots have played on the front foot against poor competition all season. They lead the league in first-half ATS at 13-4, and the offense has been far better early in games. But the Chargers defense is best in the league by DVOA in the first quarter. If New England is going to struggle, we should know early. It looks like a typical winter night in Foxborough, with temperatures below freezing, maybe some snow. That sets up for a lower scoring game, and that's the script Jim Harbaugh will want from an underdog position. The Chargers played seven games this season against playoff teams. All seven finished at 43 points or below, averaging 35.3 PPG. LA also played its best defense on the road. In bigger games, Harbaugh tends to go very conservative, shortening the game, limiting points, and trusting Herbert to do just enough to get the win. Windy unders are 61% over the last five seasons, and remember, non-division games with a total at 41 or higher are 35-9 to the under (80%) in outdoor Wild Card Round games. I think this game goes one of two ways. Either Minter's defense gets exposed by Maye and the potential MVP picks them apart, and this game goes Patriots and over, or the Chargers hang all the way and this total and 3.5-point spread are too high. I'm going with the latter pairing, which means under and Chargers +3.5 on a correlated play. Wild Card hosts that missed last year's playoffs are just 32% ATS, and quarterbacks making their playoff debut against experience postseason QBs are 34% ATS. If the game does go low, that only makes the +3.5 even more valuable above the key number. Play under 46.5 and Chargers +3.5 together as a correlated SGP at +242 (DraftKings). If you want a prop with both risk and upside, consider an Omarion Hampton receptions escalator. Hampton is hurt and not even certain to play, and if he does play, it remains to be seen whether he'll get his usual snaps. There's a chance he starts but doesn't finish the game, so it would be wise to play this angle at a book that has injury protection if available. New England's defense allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season but the fourth most receptions. The Patriots already have seven games allowing 5+ RB receptions, including eight twice. Hampton played 81% of the snaps in Week 17 and had eight catches, his last time on a field. In seven games playing at least half the snaps, he's recorded at least five receptions in 57% of them, including six, six, and that eight. That injury adds risk to our bet, but it's also adding value to these lines, so I'll take the plunge: 3+ catches at +195, 4+ at +525, and 5+ at +1200, all at bet365, and 6+ receptions at +2500 (DraftKings). If Hampton were healthy, I'd have looked to play as high as 8+ catches. This is a nice play next to our Chargers angle too. If we're wrong on that one and the Patriots do run up the score from out front, that should mean more opportunities for Hampton as a pass catcher in negative game scripts.

This is the game I feel least certain about this weekend. I'd really prefer to fade both teams, which rate around league average on the season, with the Chargers 17th in DVOA through 17 weeks, just behind the Patriots at 15th. I'm not convinced either of these teams is built to make a postseason run. With the Chargers, it's the offensive line. LA ranks 31st in pressure rate allowed and dead last in Pass Block Win Rate, and that has neutered the offense — though the Patriots struggle to get pressure when not blitzing and rank bottom five in sack differential. I'm also a bit suspicious of Jesse Minter's defense, which ranks top three in the amount of zone played, light boxes, and lowest blitz percentage. That's the profile of a defense that's great against bad teams but beatable by elite quaterbacks like Drake Maye. The Chargers are an impressive 4-3 against playoff teams with the league's second-best defense in those games, though the offense is worst of any playoff team — even worse than the Panthers — in them. At least the Chargers have been tested, though. The Patriots played the league's softest schedule by DVOA both offensively and defensively, a complete cakewalk of a schedule. They went only 1-2 against teams at .500 or better all season. Depending on what you think of the Bills, you could argue this might be the best opponent New England has played all season! Despite their gaudy record, the Patriots have some serious flaws. The run defense cratered down the stretch, 30th in EPA per play over the back half of the schedule. Milton Williams' return will help, but that's much more than one player. New England also ranks 21st in red zone offense and dead last defensively. There are real matchup concerns too. The Chargers rank third in Success Rate on late downs, so if the Patriots can't pressure Justin Herbert, he could pick them apart. LA is also far better running the ball outside, 3rd in EPA per play there versus 31st inside, and New England's defense ranks 27th versus outside runs on the season. New England looks vulnerable over the middle of the field too. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots shred single high defenses, best in the league by EPA per play, but Minter's defense plays among the most two-high looks in the league. New England leads the league in explosive passing and ranks first in EPA per play on deep passes, but so does the Chargers defense — an awesome -0.08 EPA per play on the season. It's wild to have a negative number in that metric when one big downfield play is worth so much! The Chargers defense has more interceptions this season (19) than passing TDs allowed (16). Drake Maye's MVP case this season was built around how much he elevated this squad as a one-man show. If the Chargers defensive shell can limit those big Maye plays, New England is in trouble. The Patriots have played on the front foot against poor competition all season. They lead the league in first-half ATS at 13-4, and the offense has been far better early in games. But the Chargers defense is best in the league by DVOA in the first quarter. If New England is going to struggle, we should know early. It looks like a typical winter night in Foxborough, with temperatures below freezing, maybe some snow. That sets up for a lower scoring game, and that's the script Jim Harbaugh will want from an underdog position. The Chargers played seven games this season against playoff teams. All seven finished at 43 points or below, averaging 35.3 PPG. LA also played its best defense on the road. In bigger games, Harbaugh tends to go very conservative, shortening the game, limiting points, and trusting Herbert to do just enough to get the win. Windy unders are 61% over the last five seasons, and remember, non-division games with a total at 41 or higher are 35-9 to the under (80%) in outdoor Wild Card Round games. I think this game goes one of two ways. Either Minter's defense gets exposed by Maye and the potential MVP picks them apart, and this game goes Patriots and over, or the Chargers hang all the way and this total and 3.5-point spread are too high. I'm going with the latter pairing, which means under and Chargers +3.5 on a correlated play. Wild Card hosts that missed last year's playoffs are just 32% ATS, and quarterbacks making their playoff debut against experience postseason QBs are 34% ATS. If the game does go low, that only makes the +3.5 even more valuable above the key number. Play under 46.5 and Chargers +3.5 together as a correlated SGP at +242 (DraftKings). If you want a prop with both risk and upside, consider an Omarion Hampton receptions escalator. Hampton is hurt and not even certain to play, and if he does play, it remains to be seen whether he'll get his usual snaps. There's a chance he starts but doesn't finish the game, so it would be wise to play this angle at a book that has injury protection if available. New England's defense allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season but the fourth most receptions. The Patriots already have seven games allowing 5+ RB receptions, including eight twice. Hampton played 81% of the snaps in Week 17 and had eight catches, his last time on a field. In seven games playing at least half the snaps, he's recorded at least five receptions in 57% of them, including six, six, and that eight. That injury adds risk to our bet, but it's also adding value to these lines, so I'll take the plunge: 3+ catches at +195, 4+ at +525, and 5+ at +1200, all at bet365, and 6+ receptions at +2500 (DraftKings). If Hampton were healthy, I'd have looked to play as high as 8+ catches. This is a nice play next to our Chargers angle too. If we're wrong on that one and the Patriots do run up the score from out front, that should mean more opportunities for Hampton as a pass catcher in negative game scripts.

This is the game I feel least certain about this weekend. I'd really prefer to fade both teams, which rate around league average on the season, with the Chargers 17th in DVOA through 17 weeks, just behind the Patriots at 15th. I'm not convinced either of these teams is built to make a postseason run. With the Chargers, it's the offensive line. LA ranks 31st in pressure rate allowed and dead last in Pass Block Win Rate, and that has neutered the offense — though the Patriots struggle to get pressure when not blitzing and rank bottom five in sack differential. I'm also a bit suspicious of Jesse Minter's defense, which ranks top three in the amount of zone played, light boxes, and lowest blitz percentage. That's the profile of a defense that's great against bad teams but beatable by elite quaterbacks like Drake Maye. The Chargers are an impressive 4-3 against playoff teams with the league's second-best defense in those games, though the offense is worst of any playoff team — even worse than the Panthers — in them. At least the Chargers have been tested, though. The Patriots played the league's softest schedule by DVOA both offensively and defensively, a complete cakewalk of a schedule. They went only 1-2 against teams at .500 or better all season. Depending on what you think of the Bills, you could argue this might be the best opponent New England has played all season! Despite their gaudy record, the Patriots have some serious flaws. The run defense cratered down the stretch, 30th in EPA per play over the back half of the schedule. Milton Williams' return will help, but that's much more than one player. New England also ranks 21st in red zone offense and dead last defensively. There are real matchup concerns too. The Chargers rank third in Success Rate on late downs, so if the Patriots can't pressure Justin Herbert, he could pick them apart. LA is also far better running the ball outside, 3rd in EPA per play there versus 31st inside, and New England's defense ranks 27th versus outside runs on the season. New England looks vulnerable over the middle of the field too. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots shred single high defenses, best in the league by EPA per play, but Minter's defense plays among the most two-high looks in the league. New England leads the league in explosive passing and ranks first in EPA per play on deep passes, but so does the Chargers defense — an awesome -0.08 EPA per play on the season. It's wild to have a negative number in that metric when one big downfield play is worth so much! The Chargers defense has more interceptions this season (19) than passing TDs allowed (16). Drake Maye's MVP case this season was built around how much he elevated this squad as a one-man show. If the Chargers defensive shell can limit those big Maye plays, New England is in trouble. The Patriots have played on the front foot against poor competition all season. They lead the league in first-half ATS at 13-4, and the offense has been far better early in games. But the Chargers defense is best in the league by DVOA in the first quarter. If New England is going to struggle, we should know early. It looks like a typical winter night in Foxborough, with temperatures below freezing, maybe some snow. That sets up for a lower scoring game, and that's the script Jim Harbaugh will want from an underdog position. The Chargers played seven games this season against playoff teams. All seven finished at 43 points or below, averaging 35.3 PPG. LA also played its best defense on the road. In bigger games, Harbaugh tends to go very conservative, shortening the game, limiting points, and trusting Herbert to do just enough to get the win. Windy unders are 61% over the last five seasons, and remember, non-division games with a total at 41 or higher are 35-9 to the under (80%) in outdoor Wild Card Round games. I think this game goes one of two ways. Either Minter's defense gets exposed by Maye and the potential MVP picks them apart, and this game goes Patriots and over, or the Chargers hang all the way and this total and 3.5-point spread are too high. I'm going with the latter pairing, which means under and Chargers +3.5 on a correlated play. Wild Card hosts that missed last year's playoffs are just 32% ATS, and quarterbacks making their playoff debut against experience postseason QBs are 34% ATS. If the game does go low, that only makes the +3.5 even more valuable above the key number. Play under 46.5 and Chargers +3.5 together as a correlated SGP at +242 (DraftKings). If you want a prop with both risk and upside, consider an Omarion Hampton receptions escalator. Hampton is hurt and not even certain to play, and if he does play, it remains to be seen whether he'll get his usual snaps. There's a chance he starts but doesn't finish the game, so it would be wise to play this angle at a book that has injury protection if available. New England's defense allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season but the fourth most receptions. The Patriots already have seven games allowing 5+ RB receptions, including eight twice. Hampton played 81% of the snaps in Week 17 and had eight catches, his last time on a field. In seven games playing at least half the snaps, he's recorded at least five receptions in 57% of them, including six, six, and that eight. That injury adds risk to our bet, but it's also adding value to these lines, so I'll take the plunge: 3+ catches at +195, 4+ at +525, and 5+ at +1200, all at bet365, and 6+ receptions at +2500 (DraftKings). If Hampton were healthy, I'd have looked to play as high as 8+ catches. This is a nice play next to our Chargers angle too. If we're wrong on that one and the Patriots do run up the score from out front, that should mean more opportunities for Hampton as a pass catcher in negative game scripts.