Parsons is obviously one of the premier edge rushers in the league, but this isn’t a market or number he tends to clear, as he’s only had 4+ tackles in 3 of 13 games this season. It’s a bit unfair to include the full season since he was eased in to start the year and wasn’t in his current full-time role of ~90% of the snaps until Week 6. Even then, he’s only cleared this in 3 of 9 games. All 3 times came in games where he was able to rack up multiple sacks. There was even a game where he had 2 sacks and only finished with 2 tackles total (both from the sacks). Now he faces the Broncos, which is a brutal matchup for EDGE rushers, as Denver has allowed the 2nd fewest tackle opps to the position. Parsons has had a very easy schedule in terms of EDGE tackle opportunities, so this will be by far the toughest matchup he’s had all season. Bo Nix has also been one of the toughest QBs to sack. He plays behind an elite OL and has only been under pressure on 27% of dropbacks, the 3rd lowest rate. Even when pressured, he’s tough to take down with an 11% pressure-to-sack rate, the 2nd lowest in the league. Nix does drops back at a very high rate, which will give Parsons plenty of chances to get to him, but it also means fewer rush attempts faced than the Packers typically see. That lowers the odds Parsons picks up cheap run tackles and likely puts him in a spot where he’d need multiple sacks to clear this number. That’s a tougher task in this matchup. I’m projecting Parsons closer to 3.1 tackles with around a 61% chance to stay under 3.5.

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