This is my favorite prop of the week. The Panthers defense looked terrible in Week 1, maybe as bad as they were last season — especially the run D. Remember, this is the defense that was last in the league in DVOA last season, including dead last against the run by a mile. If you magically combined opposing RBs to face Carolina last season into one player, that player had by far the greatest statistical season in NFL history: 486 carries for 2,520 yards and 18 TDs. Only one other team even allowed over 2,000 yards on the ground to RBs. Jacksonville hasn't run the ball well for years. The Jaguars play the Panthers in Week 1 and, voila! Travis Etienne rips off 143 yards on 16 carries. This could be a breakout game for Drew Petzing's offense, and you always want James Conner overs in games you expect Arizona to win. Conner averaged 92 rushing yards per game with 10 TDs in 11 wins the last two seasons, compared to just 62 YPG with eight TDs in 18 losses. Those are stark contrasts, which means playing Conner overs can act as a proxy for a Cardinals win. I love Conner to go over 60.5 rushing yards (-115, Caesars). He had 98+ rushing yards in seven of those 11 wins the last two years, so we should place a sizable portion of our bet on 100+ yards too at +500 (bet365). Touchdown bettors will see a green light here at -135, with Conner finding the end zone in seven of those 11 wins. I don't mind that but I'll just nibble the huge game outcome of 100+ yards and two scores at +1600 (bet365) and hope for a monster Conner game.

This is my favorite prop of the week. The Panthers defense looked terrible in Week 1, maybe as bad as they were last season — especially the run D. Remember, this is the defense that was last in the league in DVOA last season, including dead last against the run by a mile. If you magically combined opposing RBs to face Carolina last season into one player, that player had by far the greatest statistical season in NFL history: 486 carries for 2,520 yards and 18 TDs. Only one other team even allowed over 2,000 yards on the ground to RBs. Jacksonville hasn't run the ball well for years. The Jaguars play the Panthers in Week 1 and, voila! Travis Etienne rips off 143 yards on 16 carries. This could be a breakout game for Drew Petzing's offense, and you always want James Conner overs in games you expect Arizona to win. Conner averaged 92 rushing yards per game with 10 TDs in 11 wins the last two seasons, compared to just 62 YPG with eight TDs in 18 losses. Those are stark contrasts, which means playing Conner overs can act as a proxy for a Cardinals win. I love Conner to go over 60.5 rushing yards (-115, Caesars). He had 98+ rushing yards in seven of those 11 wins the last two years, so we should place a sizable portion of our bet on 100+ yards too at +500 (bet365). Touchdown bettors will see a green light here at -135, with Conner finding the end zone in seven of those 11 wins. I don't mind that but I'll just nibble the huge game outcome of 100+ yards and two scores at +1600 (bet365) and hope for a monster Conner game.