Devonta Smith over 4.5 Receptions (-105 at BetMGM, -106 at FD) Philadelphia should struggle to produce big plays here, especially in the passing game against a Packers defense that ranks 1st in preventing explosive pass plays, ninth in preventing explosive run plays, and first overall in preventing all explosive plays. That means Hurts is going to have to lead the team down the field through the shorter passing game against a Green Bay defense that leans zone heavy (10th highest rate of zone coverage in 2025). That should lead to more overall plays if they are to sustain drives rather than through frequent explosive TDs (most TDs of 25+ yards in the NFL), as the Packers have allowed just one TD longer than 25 yards. So why Smith as the pass catcher? First, lets look at coverage schemes. A.J. Brown's targets per route run drops from 41% vs. man coverage to just 17% against zone, while only RB Saquon Barkley and Devonta Smith increase of the Eagles top five receiving threats. The specific types of coverages also favor Smith, as he's the only frequent Eagle pass catcher who has positive efficiency relative to his season average against the types of coverages Green Bay tends to use at +8.4% per Fantasy Points data. The Packers relatively high rate of Cover 6 (14%, 10th most in the NFL), which is designed to use a zone double against the top WR, means Brown is likely to be marked out of a few extra routes, which should funnel targets to Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Barkley as the main alternative options. Philly receivers have only faced Cover 6 on about 4% of routes run this year, so that'll mark a notable increase should the Packers stick to their deployment of it at a top-10 rate. Now to matchup specifics. By lining up in the slot near or above a 50%+ rate, he'll most frequently face Packers nickel back Javon Bullard , the Packers' CB that has allowed the most receptions per route run between he (11.7%), Keisean Nixon (7.0%) and Carrington Valentine (8.2%). Additionally, Green Bay ranks No. 7 in defensive pass efficiency against deep passes, but just 23rd vs. shorter passes and top nine against passes to the left and right but just 25th against passes over the middle, where Smith operates somewhat frequently out of the slot. Per my Week 10 Luck Rankings piece, the Eagles are likely to regress toward their season-long scoring expectation -- which they are over by 35 points -- by not having explosive TDs, which would put them in serious danger of not covering the 2.5-point spread. So as the unlucky side likely to regress and fail to cover, that would put them in a pass-heavy game script, leading to a ton of shorter passing volume, which the matchup shows should funnel primarily through Smith, with Barkley and Goedert factoring in as well. I like a Smith ladder here as well, almost as high as you'd like to go.

Devonta Smith over 4.5 Receptions (-105 at BetMGM, -106 at FD) Philadelphia should struggle to produce big plays here, especially in the passing game against a Packers defense that ranks 1st in preventing explosive pass plays, ninth in preventing explosive run plays, and first overall in preventing all explosive plays. That means Hurts is going to have to lead the team down the field through the shorter passing game against a Green Bay defense that leans zone heavy (10th highest rate of zone coverage in 2025). That should lead to more overall plays if they are to sustain drives rather than through frequent explosive TDs (most TDs of 25+ yards in the NFL), as the Packers have allowed just one TD longer than 25 yards. So why Smith as the pass catcher? First, lets look at coverage schemes. A.J. Brown's targets per route run drops from 41% vs. man coverage to just 17% against zone, while only RB Saquon Barkley and Devonta Smith increase of the Eagles top five receiving threats. The specific types of coverages also favor Smith, as he's the only frequent Eagle pass catcher who has positive efficiency relative to his season average against the types of coverages Green Bay tends to use at +8.4% per Fantasy Points data. The Packers relatively high rate of Cover 6 (14%, 10th most in the NFL), which is designed to use a zone double against the top WR, means Brown is likely to be marked out of a few extra routes, which should funnel targets to Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Barkley as the main alternative options. Philly receivers have only faced Cover 6 on about 4% of routes run this year, so that'll mark a notable increase should the Packers stick to their deployment of it at a top-10 rate. Now to matchup specifics. By lining up in the slot near or above a 50%+ rate, he'll most frequently face Packers nickel back Javon Bullard , the Packers' CB that has allowed the most receptions per route run between he (11.7%), Keisean Nixon (7.0%) and Carrington Valentine (8.2%). Additionally, Green Bay ranks No. 7 in defensive pass efficiency against deep passes, but just 23rd vs. shorter passes and top nine against passes to the left and right but just 25th against passes over the middle, where Smith operates somewhat frequently out of the slot. Per my Week 10 Luck Rankings piece, the Eagles are likely to regress toward their season-long scoring expectation -- which they are over by 35 points -- by not having explosive TDs, which would put them in serious danger of not covering the 2.5-point spread. So as the unlucky side likely to regress and fail to cover, that would put them in a pass-heavy game script, leading to a ton of shorter passing volume, which the matchup shows should funnel primarily through Smith, with Barkley and Goedert factoring in as well. I like a Smith ladder here as well, almost as high as you'd like to go.