NFL Week 8 features an odd slate, with six teams on bye and eight of the 12 weekend games with a spread of six points or longer.
Favorites have ruled the early window on Sunday afternoons, but will all these big favorites win and cover?
Even the biggest favorites have their flaws in this season of parity, and these long lines may mean taking some ugly underdogs and getting creative on picks, even being willing to take a few wild long shots and bet games in multiple ways.
Let's get to my NFL Week 8 picks and predictions!
NFL Week 8 Predictions
Browns vs Patriots Player Prop
The Patriots are another one of those touchdown favorites. New England has played well, and Drake Maye is absolutely balling, but the Patriots have benefited from a Charmin-soft schedule.
The offense has had it particularly easy, facing the second easiest schedule so far. The offense is beating up on defenses like the Raiders, Dolphins, Saints, and Titans. There's not one opposing defense in the top half of the league in most metrics.
Suffice to say that will change in a big way with the Browns coming to town. Cleveland's defense has been fantastic.
The run defense ranks best in the league by DVOA, and Myles Garrett and the tenacious defensive front will be a big test for this revamped Patriots offensive line.
It will be pretty shocking if New England is able to run the ball well.
The Patriots rank 31st in Run DVOA offensively and really haven't run successfully all year. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson has struggled to get going, and veteran Rhamondre Stevenson has lacked juice.
We played Stevenson a week ago to find the end zone and cashed our bet. He had a season-high 18 carries to just two for Henderson.
This week we're fading Stevenson's rushing attempts with a line at 17.5 that looks far too high. He did go over last week by half a carry but maxed out at 13 every other game of the season, averaging 8.5 rushing attempts outside of last week.
Our Pro projection has Stevenson at 13 carries, and that feels about right.
The Browns defense allowed 21 carries to Chase Brown in Week 1 but for only 43 yards. Since then, opposing RB1s have had between 11 and 16 carries every game, averaging 13.2 carries.
I'm just not sure the Patriots will get as many chances to play with the lead or even possess the ball in this one.
Give Cleveland's defense some credit and grab Stevenson's rushing attempts under 17.5 (-115, BetMGM), where we should hopefully have a few carries to spare.
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)
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Dolphins vs Falcons Best Bets
We're totally positive the Falcons should be better than a touchdown favorite, even with a questionable starting quarterback?
Atlanta has run wildly hot and cold this season, with high highs and low lows.
The Falcons have only topped 24 points one time; Atlanta averages just 15.2 PPG outside of that one time.
Add in what could be a huge Miami special teams advantage, and I make this closer to Falcons -3.
No one wants to even sniff betting the Dolphins right now, but that would mean a moneyline price close to +140.
We're going to have to hold our nose and bet Miami +350 (ESPN Bet), in case this talented Dolphins roster does what appears to be unthinkable.
But if the Falcons do win the game, it sure seems obvious how it would happen: Atlanta should run all over this team.
Pick a defensive metric and the Dolphins rank near the bottom of the league, especially against the run.
That could set up for a monster game for Bijan Robinson, but books have priced that into all of Bijan's props already, so I'm pivoting to Atlanta's other RB, Tyler Allgeier.
If you could only see one player's stats and had to guess if Atlanta won or lost, Allgeier is probably the right pick.
In 12 losses since the start of last season, Allgeier averages just 5.8 carries for 28.5 yards. In 11 wins during that stretch, those numbers nearly double to 11.3 carries for 46 YPG.
That includes at least 32 yards in eight of the 11 wins (73%), whereas he only hit that number four times in a loss.
Play Allgeier to go over 39.5 rushing yards at -114 (FanDuel), and place part of your bet on 50+ yards at +158.
Allgeier hit that number in five of Atlanta's wins, almost half of them. You can parlay those with an Atlanta ML if you like, but it likely won't add much.
I'm not looking to push too high on a yardage escalator here.
Allgeier isn't great at breaking tackles or busting a long one; he tends to be more of a volume hammer to close out games, especially in big wins.
Atlanta has five wins by 7+ since the start of last season, and Allgeier has at least 15 carries in three of them (and no others).
If Atlanta covers the spread and wins big, Allgeier will likely see a heavy workload.
Skip the spread and bet on 15+ carries at +850 instead (bet365).
You can also place part of that bet on a SGP with 15+ carries parlayed with Atlanta -7.5 at +1200 (bet365), if you like.
Pick: Tyler Allgeier Props; Dolphins Moneyline
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49ers vs Texans Picks
The injury report is a mess for this one.
Nico Collins is out in concussion protocol, and the 49ers offense remains waylaid by injuries.
Brock Purdy is out once again, and the Niners are missing multiple receivers and a whole cadre of defenders.
The focus is on all those offensive injuries in San Francisco, but I'm really worried about a defense that really wasn't all that talented to start with before losing superstars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, now in addition to several other starters.
My roster rankings have this defense 31st going forward, ahead of only Dallas.
San Francisco is 5-2 but shouldn't get too comfortable just yet. There's value on a 49ers ticket to miss the playoffs at +335 (BetRivers), with this tricky game and another matchup against the Rams a couple weeks from now.
This season can still turn, and I'm wondering if the team might just totally blow a tire and lay an egg at some point — maybe in this one.
Houston's offense stinks, no doubt, but even the Texans have scored when they faced terrible defenses like the Titans and Ravens.
The Texans won those games by 26 and 34, scoring plenty when the competition wasn't so stiff defensively, and Houston's defense remains among the best in the league.
DeMeco Ryans should have plenty of ideas how to defend Kyle Shanahan after all their time together.
The Texans remain quite underrated, and we can see that in Houston's underlying metrics like Pythagorean rating.
From Week 5 forward, teams with a Pythagorean plus-minus of 35% or better are an awesome 17-6 ATS over the last couple decades, covering 74% of the time by 9.3 PPG.
When those teams are favored, they're a perfect 7-0 ATS, covering by almost 22 PPG — including wins by 15, 24, 34, 38, and 49 points, all in October!
It's a tiny sample, but it fits what we've seen from both these teams over the past calendar year.
During that time span, the 49ers have 10 losses, and six of them came by double digits, with an average margin of defeat at 12.9 PPG, including losses of 23, 25, and 28 points.
In the same time frame, four of Houston's eight wins are by double digits, with an average 15.9 PPG margin of victory and four 20+ wins.
I don't see much value in backing Houston at -1.5 or -2.5 with how many injuries and unknowns there are in both sides.
I do like the Texans here, but if I'm right, I want them to make it worth my while.
I'll forgo the usual Texans spread and bet a pair of alternate lines instead: Texans -9.5 at +320 and Texans -19.5 at +2000, both at FanDuel.
Pick: Texans Alternate Lines
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Cowboys vs Broncos Team Total Bets
I guess I'll just keep fading the Broncos, despite my heart getting broken week after week.
We were on both New York teams' moneylines the last two weeks, looking good in the fourth quarter, only to get crushed late. But the read has been right both times, and profitable with our ATS bets: Denver remains overrated and unreliable.
Dallas was one of my selections in my Pick Six moneyline parlay, and I still like Cowboys ML and of course Cowboys +3.5.
But I like betting the Cowboys' team total even more because it's an even more advantageous line and because it means we don't even have to worry about the terrible Dallas defense.
This pick is about the other defense — it's time to fade the Vance Joseph's fraudulent Broncos defense.
When Denver's defense looks good, it looks great, unstoppable at times pinning the ears of the pass rush back and making the dregs of the league look truly terrible. Nobody's front runs like this Denver defense.
But the Broncos are a totally different unit against NFL offenses that are actually good.
The Broncos have faced only one top offense this season. That was the Colts, who promptly ran up 473 yards on Denver for 29 points.
Indianapolis is now the sixth opponent this Denver defense has faced that ranked top-12 in offensive DVOA in the last calendar year. Those six opponents averaged 29.2 PPG against the Broncos, including games of 30, 31, 34, and 41 points.
Denver's defense is great against bad offenses when it can dictate, but average, and even bad at times, against top offenses, consistently getting cooked by the league's top quarterbacks.
And I'm not sure anyone is playing better quarterback right now than Dak Prescott. He's carving up defenses week after week, and now he's got a healthy CeeDee Lamb to pair with George Pickens too.
Add in a revenge game for Javonte Williams, and this revitalized run game under OC Klayton Adams, and Dallas's offense is cooking.
Denver's mediocre offense is artificially suppressing this game's total.
Combine that with the Broncos being (rightfully) favored and the math leaves Dallas's team total at 23.5.
That's buying us value, because that's just too low for the Cowboys.
Dallas is 5-2 to the over against a 23.5 TT, averaging 391 yards a game with four of its seven games at 37 points or more.
I think the Cowboys can cover and win, but if they do, they're going to do it by scoring. So, we might as well just play the team total.
Cowboys over 23.5 points is an outrageous line (-105, DraftKings), and why bother with a +154 ML when we can just go over 26.5 Cowboys points at +154 (DraftKings)? Dallas will likely need 27 to win anyway.
Over 29.5 points is +290. Dallas is averaging 31.7 PPG, and Denver has allowed at least 30 in four of its six games against top-12 offenses in the last year.
You can even sprinkle over 33.5 points at +575 (bet365) in case the Cowboys really hang a crooked number on this Denver defense.
If only we could bet on Brandon Aubrey props too! That dude might try to kick a 70-yarder in Denver elevation.
Dallas is a threat to score from almost anywhere on the field with Aubrey. So, that could be a bonus 3-to-6 free points to our team total.
If you do like Dallas to win, this also looks like a great spot to invest in Cowboys futures.
I wrote about a Dallas escalator of over 7.5 wins and +600 to win the NFC East, which could be in play if the Eagles continue to struggle.
Pick: Cowboys TT Over 23.5 + Escalators
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Titans vs Colts Team Total + ML Picks
It would be tough to find two teams going in more opposite directions, and that explains one of the biggest spreads of the season thus far, with the Colts favored by two touchdowns over Tennessee this week.
Indianapolis has the league's best offense. The Colts rank first in Offensive DVOA, tops both rushing and passing.
The Titans offense? It ranks dead-last in that metric.
Tennessee's defense has been slightly better — can't be worse! However, it might be headed in the wrong direction thanks to a couple key injuries.
DT Jeffrey Simmons has played like a DPOY contender even on a miserable team. His absence along with CB L'Jarius Sneed leave this defense badly lacking in talent.
They weren't very good to start with. The Titans have allowed 27.4 PPG, even with that pair healthy, and that includes a season-high 41 to the Colts in a blowout Week 3 loss.
The Colts offense has scored at least 29 points in all but one game this season, with games of 29, 31, 33, 38, 40, and 41 points.
That's all we need to know to back Indy's team total over 30.5 points (-109, BetRivers), and we can take a small escalator and go over 34.5 points at +180 (DraftKings) and over 39.5 at +375 (bet365).
Okay, ready for the crazy part?
If the Colts don't go over the team total, something has gone wrong — and maybe the Titans steal this.
It sounds crazy now, but since 2018, moneyline underdogs between +750 and +1000 are 4-14 straight up.
That doesn't sound great, but if you just blindly bet the long shot underdog in those spots, you're sitting on a 106% ROI.
Those teams either get blown out or pull a shocker, and these rivals had played eight straight single-digit games before the Week 3 blowout.
I think this spread is inflated and would make it closer to -11.5, which would typically mean a moneyline around +450.
We're getting twice the payout. So, let's nibble Titans ML at +900 (ESPN Bet) and hope we either get a shocking upset or a Colts blowout.
Pick: Colts TT Over 30.5, Titans ML
Seahawks vs Commanders (Week 9 Lookahead Pick)
As always, this is about the key number.
Seattle is on its bye week, and maybe that's for the best, as we keep getting burned on injuries with these early picks.
The Seahawks will be home getting healthy and watching with the rest of us on Monday night, as Washington likely gets blown out in Kansas City in front of a national TV audience.
When that happens, this line of Seattle -2.5 will be gone for good.
With all the Washington injuries on both sides of the ball — and just my analysis of where these teams are at anyway — I have the Commanders bottom-half of the league in my power ratings, while the Seahawks are in the top-five.
I make this line more like a touchdown, as things stand.
The question is, how much healthier will Washington be by next Sunday night?
Jayden Daniels is out again with his second leg injury of the season. Hamstring injuries are not often one-week injuries.
I'm skeptical that Daniels plays at full strength next week — maybe he misses again, or at least he's not his best self.
That's a big problem against a talented, aggressive Mike Macdonald defense that should finally be healthy.
We still don't know which Washington receivers will be ready to go either.
In the end, this line just should not be below the key number.
Seattle ranks top-three in run defense by DVOA, and should be able to control Washington's best offense. The Seahawks have been outstanding in the passing game and should beat this soft defense.
Grab Seattle -2.5 below the key number at FanDuel while it's available.
Pick: Seahawks -3 (-105)
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Brandon's NFL Week 8 Betting Card
- Rhamondre Stevenson Under 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)
- Tyler Allgeier Props, Dolphins ML
- Texans Alternate Lines
- Cowboys TT Over 23.5 + Escalators
- Colts TT Over 30.5, Titans ML
NFL Week 9 Lookahead Pick
- Seahawks -3 (-105)
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