If Week 6 in the NFL felt uneventful, you’re not imagining things.
Of the 14 games, only three were decided by one score. Favorites went an incredible 9-0 against the spread (ATS) — the most covers in a single week without an ATS loss for road favorites since the merger in 1970.
I’m betting on the underdogs biting back in Week 7.
The NFL Week 7 slate features tons of exciting games, although the start is ugly. A battle between Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler in primetime precedes two 1-5 teams facing off in London.
However, the Lions and Vikings face off in a battle of potential Super Bowl contenders, the Chiefs and 49ers get a Super Bowl rematch, and C.J. Stroud faces Jordan Love for the first time in the NFL. Buckle up.
I’m ice cold on my NFL predictions right now, going 13-21 to start the season in this column. I’m sticking with my process and hoping things turn around over the course of the year. Let’s dive into some Week 7 games.
NFL Week 7 Picks: Pass or Play
| Category |
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| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 7 Picks |
Thursday Night Football: Broncos vs. Saints
The Saints played in one of the most wild games of Week 6, a 51-27 road win for the Buccaneers.
Spencer Rattler started for New Orleans and had his ups and downs, completing just 55% of his passes and throwing two interceptions. He threw for 243 yards, but this week gets much more difficult against a Denver defense that ranks fourth in pass defense EPA.
Monitoring the injury reports for both teams in this game is essential.
Denver star cornerback Patrick Surtain II suffered a concussion on Sunday, and his availability on Thursday is an uphill battle. Starting corners Riley Moss and Ja'Quan McMillian are also dealing with injuries. Meanwhile, Saints receiver Chris Olave suffered a concussion on Sunday, and Rashid Shaheed is dealing with a leg injury.
New Orleans has a banged-up offensive line, and interior offensive linemen Cesar Ruiz, Lucas Patrick and Erik McCoy missed the game on Sunday. That’s problematic for an O-line that ranks 31st in pass-blocking (per PFF) and faces a Denver defense that ranks top five in blitz and pressure rate. Rattler should be under fire here.
It’s tough to have any confidence backing this Denver offense as a road favorite, though, as it ranks just 25th in early down EPA. The Saints got shredded by Baker Mayfield on Sunday, but they ranked 8th in defensive DVOA entering the game, and I wouldn’t expect Bo Nix to pour it on with a limited group of wide receivers.
I’d be intrigued by the under here, but I’m waiting to see how shorthanded Denver is in the secondary. The Saints can be teased up from +1.5 to +7.5 through the key numbers of 3 and 7, and that’s the way I’d look to play this game at present.
Verdict: Pass, use Saints +7.5 in a teaser
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Passes
Bengals vs. Browns
The Browns played the Eagles close on Sunday, but Philadelphia outgained them by over 100 yards and Cleveland had another game where it averaged less than 5 yards per play.
Deshaun Watson’s horrendous start to the season continues, and it’s clear Browns ownership is mandating that head coach Kevin Stefanski ride this out and not hand the reigns over to Jameis Winston.
Nick Chubb could make his season debut this week, but Cleveland is dealing with several injuries on both sides of the ball. The lack of personnel continuity dating back to last season has made it difficult for the Browns to establish any sort of consistency.
Head coach Zac Taylor is 11-21 straight up (SU) in divisional games since becoming Bengals head coach, and underdogs in AFC North divisional games have gone 46-29 ATS (61%) since 2018, the best of any division.
There will be sharp money on the Browns if this hits +6, but I’m not sure if I can stomach backing Watson, even against a Bengals defense that has been vulnerable this year.
Verdict: Pass
Titans vs. Bills
The Bills took firm control of the AFC East on Monday night with a road win over the Jets, but they weren’t satisfied, making a trade for Amari Cooper on Tuesday. He gives Josh Allen another much-needed wide receiver who can separate and make plays downfield. However, the Bills are laying a crooked number in this game.
According to Evan Abrams, Allen has closed as a favorite of 4+ points 26 times in his career, and the Bills are 8-17-1 ATS (32%) in those games. That’s the worst mark of 42 quarterbacks over that span.
I’m tempted to catch the falling knife with the Titans, but Will Levis just posted 3.8 yards per attempt against a Colts defense that’s 23rd against the pass by EPA. The Bills rank 9th in that same metric.
If this hits +10, I might plug my nose and back the Titans, but this is a pass otherwise.
Verdict: Pass
Panthers vs. Commanders
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense finally fell back to earth a bit last week, but this matchup should provide an opportunity for a massive bounce-back against a Panthers defense ranked 31st by DVOA.
If Brian Robinson Jr. is back in the lineup this week, he’ll have a good opportunity to put up big numbers against a Carolina run defense that has been gashed on the ground in recent weeks.
Andy Dalton has provided a reasonable upgrade to the Carolina offense, and the Panthers can do their part to make this a shootout — the 51.5-point over/under is the highest of the week.
However, I don’t have much interest in this game from a side or total perspective, outside of a potential play on the Commanders as a teaser piece.
Verdict: Pass, use Commanders -1.5 as a teaser piece
Raiders vs. Rams
The Rams have been one of the most injured teams in the NFL over the first month and a half of the season, but their bye week should provide an excellent opportunity for improved health.
Cooper Kupp could be making his return as soon as this week, which would provide a massive boost to the offense, while the offensive line is beginning to find health and continuity.
The Raiders are largely irredeemable at this point with a nonexistent run game, the league’s worst coverage grade (per PFF) and a quarterback battle between Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew where absolutely nobody wins.
Teasing the Rams through 3 and 7 is the only way I’d look to play this game.
Verdict: Pass, use Rams -1 as a teaser piece
Jets vs. Steelers
The New York Jets are the NFL’s weekly soap opera, and this week’s episode includes a panic trade for Davante Adams after a loss to the Bills on Monday Night Football. I’d argue the team suffered more from a nonexistent run defense, 110 yards of penalties and two missed field goals in the game, but hey, at least Adams will be fun for headlines.
The Jets’ supposedly improved offensive line has been a fatal flaw this season as New York ranks 24th in pass-block win rate. That’s problematic against the T.J. Watt-led Pittsburgh Steelers, who could be getting Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig back this week.
However, the Steelers have reportedly made the decision to start Russell Wilson at quarterback this week to attempt to give the offense a spark after Justin Fields’ two worst starts of the season. Fields had five turnover-worthy plays over the last two games, and he’s lucky to not have a single interception over that span.
Still, I have no faith in Wilson moving the ball effectively against a New York defense ranked 11th against the pass by DVOA and 3rd in PFF’s coverage grades.
Wilson had a dreadful game against this defense last year, finishing with a putrid 42.8 PFF grade and three turnover-worthy plays, along with a game-clinching fumble the Jets returned for a touchdown.
I don’t have much interest in backing either of these teams at the moment, and the total looks well-priced at 38.5.
Verdict: Pass
Chargers vs. Cardinals
The Cardinals are incapable of stringing together multiple strong performances, and their defense has been a real eye sore.
Arizona ranks 27th in run-stop win rate, and that’s a huge problem in this matchup against the Chargers, who run the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL. If you’re looking for an angle here, J.K. Dobbins props could be something to target.
Kyler Murray is the best quarterback the Chargers have seen all year by far, but there’s no doubt that defensive coordinator Jesse Minter is doing an excellent job with his group.
The Chargers rank top seven in defensive DVOA against the run and pass, and it could be difficult for the Cardinals to sustain success offensively, especially if Marvin Harrison Jr. is forced to miss this game after suffering a concussion last week.
I don’t have a strong lean on this game early in the week, but I’m hopeful that we’ll get two entertaining games on Monday night.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
Patriots vs. Jaguars
The Jaguars play a second straight game in London this week, which could give them a significant rest and preparation edge over the Patriots.
For what it’s worth, the Jags won outright as 5.5-point underdogs against the Bills in this spot last year. The unique travel situation could be especially problematic for a rookie head coach and quarterback.
However, it’s difficult to not be optimistic about Drake Maye’s debut. He’s the first quarterback since at least 1950 to throw for 3+ passing touchdowns and lead his team in rushing yards in his first career start. Ideally, the Patriots will get Rhamondre Stevenson back this week to bolster their run game. Either way, Maye should have success against a Jacksonville pass defense that ranks last by DVOA.
The Patriots’ offensive line has struggled this season, but a key reinforcement could be coming with offensive guard Cole Strange. Former UDFA Ben Brown also looks like a potential long-term starter after an impressive debut last week.
The Jaguars rank just 31st in pass rush win rate, so Maye will have much more time in the pocket than he did against Houston.
Jacksonville’s offense has been underwhelming, but the Patriots rank 29th in defensive DVOA. If there were ever a game for Trevor Lawrence to have success, it would be this one against the sixth-worst pressure unit. Lawrence has drastic splits when he’s under pressure vs. operating from a clean pocket this season.
This looks like a game that could feature a surprising amount of scoring, especially with the upgrade Maye appears to provide to the Patriots offense.
I lean toward the over and the Patriots’ team total over early in the week.
Verdict: Lean over 43 points
Texans vs. Packers
C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love were the two breakout quarterback stars of the 2023 season, and this week, they face off for the first time in the NFL.
Stroud will be without Nico Collins, who had arguably been the best wide receiver in the league through the first month of the season. That didn’t stop Stroud from putting up 41 points on the Patriots last week, but I still have significant concerns about the Houston offense.
The Texans put up just a 40% early down success rate in the game against New England, which would rank 25th this season. Overall, they rank 31st in the league in early down success rate, ahead of only the Browns.
The potential absence of stud offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, who suffered an ankle injury on Sunday, would further compound those issues.
Love had his most complete game of the season this past Sunday in a dominant win over the Cardinals, and he only has one turnover-worthy play over his last two games after a whopping five TWPs in his first two starts this year.
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur could be coaching against a defense missing several key pieces, including linebackers Henry To’oTo’o and Azeez Al-Shaair and cornerback Kamari Lassiter.
The price for this game looks right to me early in the week, but I’m definitely interested in backing a Packers team I’m much higher on than Houston. For now, I’ll monitor the Texans’ injury reports before pulling the trigger on a side.
Verdict: Lean Packers -2.5
Chiefs vs. 49ers
The Chiefs are coming off their bye week, and you’re going to hear plenty this week about Andy Reid’s 21-4 record off a bye. You’re also going to hear plenty about Patrick Mahomes’ 25-8-1 ATS (76%) record in games where he closes as an underdog or favorite of 3 or fewer points. And perhaps that’s all you need to know about this game.
However, I lean toward the 49ers getting their Super Bowl revenge in this game. The Chiefs remain severely shorthanded in their pass-catching corps, and the San Francisco secondary has been excellent.
The Niners rank third against the pass by DVOA. It is important to monitor the injury report to see what Charvarius Ward’s status is for this game, but I see a definitive edge for the 49ers’ defensive backs over the Chiefs’ receivers.
Jordan Mason’s injury status is also critical in this game, as he’s been an engine for the offense with Christian McCaffrey out. Steve Spagnuolo will find creative ways to generate pressure on Brock Purdy, but the QB has been excellent under pressure this year, ranking second in PFF’s passing grades and logging zero turnover-worthy plays under duress.
This isn’t a game I feel the need to bet early in the week as I anticipate plenty of money coming in on the Chiefs, and I’ll wait to get a better idea of the injury report for the 49ers before I pull the trigger.
Verdict: Lean 49ers -1.5
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NFL Week 7 Predictions
- Dolphins +3.5
- Seahawks +3
- Giants +3.5
- Lions-Vikings Over 49.5
- Buccaneers +3.5
Dolphins vs. Colts
The last time we saw the Dolphins on Monday Night Football, their offense put forth an absolute clunker.
Tyler Huntley looked awful under center and Miami struggled to move the ball. However, I expect the operation to look much cleaner coming off a much-needed bye week. Head coach Mike McDaniel has had time to ramp Huntley up to speed, and this Colts defense is highly vulnerable.
Indianapolis sits in soft Cover 3 zone defense and blitzes at the lowest rate in the NFL. It is highly vulnerable to explosive plays, as we saw in Week 5 against a Jacksonville offense that has looked inept every other week this season.
The Colts are also highly vulnerable on the ground — they rank 30th in adjusted line yards on defense and the Packers beat them in Week 2 by running for 261 yards. With De’Von Achane back from his concussion and a healthy Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright, the Dolphins have the personnel to follow a similar approach.
I’m unsure that the market is properly pricing the downgrade from Joe Flacco to Anthony Richardson, who is expected to be back under center this week. Flacco ranks 3rd in the all-encompassing EPA+CPOE metric — Richardson ranks 32nd. The second-year quarterback also leads the NFL in turnover-worthy play rate.
The Colts are expected to be without Jonathan Taylor, which is critical as the Dolphins are a run-funnel defense, ranking 31st against the run by DVOA.
We’re getting good value with Miami on the right side of the key number, and I’ll back McDaniel’s ability to right the ship coming off the bye.
Verdict: Bet Dolphins +3.5
Seahawks vs. Falcons
The Seahawks went from 3-0 to 3-3 in an 11-day span, and by the time their Thursday Night Football game against the 49ers was over, they were beaten up and gassed out on defense.
The mini-bye week should do this team a ton of good as they’re able to get healthy on defense. Linebacker Uchenna Nwosu remains on IR, but all of the other key contributors who had missed time should be back, including cornerback Tariq Woolen.
Head coach Mike Macdonald will be able to utilize that extra preparation time to attack Kirk Cousins, whose production nosedives against pressure this season. I expect some creative blitz packages and stunts from the Seattle defense to take advantage of a quarterback lacking in mobility.
Meanwhile, Geno Smith should have a clean pocket to work with. He ranks top six in PFF passing grades and adjusted completion rate from a clean pocket this season, but the Seattle offensive line has struggled to hold up. However, the Falcons rank just 27th in pass-rush win rate and won’t threaten Smith as much as the defenses he’s faced recently.
Kenneth Walker III should also thrive in this matchup. The Falcons rank 27th in early down rushing success rate allowed, and Walker is the highest-graded runner in the NFL this season, according to PFF.
Ultimately, I love this buy-low, sell-high spot for both teams and I see several schematic advantages for the Seahawks.
Macdonald’s inexperienced coaching staff should benefit from the extra time off, and with a healthier complement of players on defense, I’ll back the Seahawks here.
Verdict: Bet Seahawks +3
Eagles vs. Giants
The Eagles suffered three significant injuries on Sunday.
Offensive tackle Jordan Mailata, PFF’s highest-graded pass-blocker among all offensive linemen, and tight end Dallas Goedert will miss time with hamstring injuries. Cornerback Darius Slay is considered day to day with a knee injury, and his status for this week is especially critical if the Giants get star rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers back on the field.
Philadelphia’s defense still hasn’t reached the standard Vic Fangio expects in his first year as the coordinator, and Brian Daboll should be able to scheme some production against them, especially if Nabers is healthy.
The Giants’ offensive line has improved to a league-average level, and that’s benefitted Daniel Jones, who has been the eighth-most accurate passer in the league by adjusted completion rate. Andrew Thomas' season-ending injury certainly hurts, but the Eagles are not an elite pass rush unit – they rank 25th in pressure rate.
Meanwhile, the Giants’ defensive line has impressed with top-six rankings in pass-rush and run-block win rates. With Mailata out, it will either be Fred Johnson or Mekhi Becton at left tackle this week. They’ve allowed a combined 28 pressures on 230 pass-blocking snaps this year, so expect Jalen Hurts to be under pressure.
The Eagles have a full complement of wide receivers, but the Giants’ secondary is underrated. Rookies Andru Phillips and Tyler Nubin have played massive roles in the continued improvement in the team’s pass defense, and New York held Joe Burrow to a meager 208 passing yards with no touchdowns last week, halting his torrid stretch of play.
The Giants were available as high as +4 earlier in the week, and they've taken significant sharp money. I'm backing New York as the home dog in the Saquon Barkley bowl, and I'd buy the hook up to +3.5 at -120 odds or better.
Verdict: Bet Giants +3.5 (up to -120)
Lions vs. Vikings
The Lions demolished the Cowboys 47-9 on Sunday, but it wasn’t without incident.
Star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson will miss the rest of the season with a broken tibia and fibula, and it’s difficult to understate the magnitude of that loss. He led the NFL with 45 pressures — the next-closest player has 35 and played in six games to Hutchinson’s five. Hutchinson also led the league with a 38.3% pass-rush win rate — Myles Garrett is the next-closest at 27.5%.
Despite Hutchinson’s incredible start to the season, the Lions’ pass defense has been vulnerable at times with an underwhelming secondary. Detroit runs the fourth-highest rate of man coverage in the NFL, and Justin Jefferson is averaging over six yards per route run against man defense this year. He finished with over 300 yards and two touchdowns across two games against this defense last year.
Sam Darnold has been excellent in Kevin O’Connell’s offense this year, with 11 touchdowns to four interceptions. His production has declined steeply when under pressure, but the Lions could struggle to press the issue without Hutchinson. Minnesota could be getting healthier on offense, as well, with the potential return of T.J. Hockenson coming off the bye week.
Meanwhile, Ben Johnson and the Lions offense must prepare for the top-ranked defense in the NFL by DVOA. However, it must be noted that the Vikings haven’t faced an offense that ranks in the top 10 for early-down success rate this season. The Lions have the best offense in the league in that regard.
Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL, but Jared Goff has been lights out against the blitz this year, leading the NFL with 12.1 yards per attempt.
O’Connell and Johnson are two of the best playcallers in the NFL, and we should see fireworks with both of these offenses pushing each other to the limit.
I’ll back the over in this game as long as it’s below 51, which is the biggest key number for totals in this range.
Verdict: Bet Over 49.5 Points
Ravens vs. Buccaneers
After suffering a ton of defensive injuries early in the season, the Buccaneers have gotten much healthier on that end.
Crucially, All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. is back in the lineup — he’s the lynchpin of Todd Bowles’ Cover 3-heavy defense as arguably the best in the NFL at his position. The Bucs have also benefitted from breakouts from young defensive talents YaYa Diaby, Zyon McCollum and Tykee Smith.
That Tampa Bay defense will be put to the test on Monday against a Baltimore offense that stresses opponents in unique ways. However, the Bucs are more equipped to defend Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry on the ground than most teams.
They rank 6th in the NFL in FTN’s stuff rate metric, which measures how often a running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. That’s primarily thanks to the dominant presence of Vita Vea in the middle.
The Ravens have the best run defense in the NFL, allowing just 59 rushing yards per game. But that doesn’t help them as much against the Buccaneers, who rank fourth in neutral game script pass play rate. Baker Mayfield has been incredible in offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s scheme, leading the NFL in passing success rate.
Baltimore is far more vulnerable through the air, where it ranks 27th in passing EPA allowed. First-year defensive coordinator Zach Orr has struggled to maintain the same consistency against the pass that Mike Macdonald established last year. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both more than capable of putting stress on the Ravens cornerbacks.
Lamar Jackson is 7-1 ATS as an underdog in his career, but he’s 19-21 ATS as a favorite, including 8-18 ATS (31%) when favored by over three points.
The Bucs’ passing game will keep them in this game for all four quarters, and they’re live to steal this game outright.
Verdict: Bet Buccaneers +3.5
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