The regular season is nearing a close, and this NFL Week 17 slate is one of the best of the year.
We kick off with two exciting games on Christmas between four AFC playoff teams before a loaded Saturday slate with three games featuring playoff implications. A massive divisional matchup between the Packers and Vikings awaits on Sunday, while Monday Night Football features an NFC Championship rematch.
Let's dive into my Week 17 predictions and see where the value lies.
NFL Week 17 Picks
| Category |
|---|
| Christmas Day |
| Thursday Night Football |
| Saturday Slate |
| Sunday Slate |
| Monday Night Football |
NFL Christmas Day
Chiefs vs. Steelers
Kicking off the two-game Christmas slate is a matchup between the defending Super Bowl champions and a Steelers team that has exceeded expectations.
The Chiefs offense has been trending up in recent weeks, and Hollywood Brown made his season debut last week, seeing an immediate role with five catches for 45 yards. His field-stretching ability should only make more of an impact as his snap rate increases.
The Chiefs also have found at least a short-term solution for their left tackle woes, as Joe Thuney allowed just four pressures last week against a talented Texans pass rush. His first start at the position two weeks ago did not go as smoothly, but Kansas City has been playing without a consistent left tackle for the entire season, and Thuney gives them the closest thing they’ve had to a viable option.
The Steelers defense has been excellent, ranking ninth in weighted DVOA, but injuries have created issues. Just as Donte Jackson and DeShon Elliott are expected to return to the lineup, top cornerback Joey Porter Jr. suffered a knee injury that will likely keep him out this week.
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid will be sure to relentlessly target either Cory Trice Jr. or James Pierre, who are unproven at the position.
Pittsburgh’s offense gets a boost in this game with the expected return of George Pickens, who is by far the team’s best pass-catching weapon. He’ll have the luxury of facing a Chiefs secondary that has slipped in recent weeks, ranking 21st in pass defense EPA since losing Jaylen Watson for the season. Chamarri Conner has also been ruled out.
The Chiefs could also be without Chris Jones, their top defensive weapon after he suffered a calf strain. With the playoffs right around the corner, I expect the Chiefs to be cautious with Jones, as calf strains have a high likelihood of re-injury.
Jones leads the NFL with 74 pressures this season, per PFF, and is also the lynchpin for one of the best run defenses in the league.
Ultimately, the injury news on both sides of the ball point toward the over, and we also get a nice boost, with this being an Action Analytics Luck Over.
Luck Overs are 6-0 this season and hitting at a 67% rate over the last seven years on a 72-game sample size.
Verdict: Bet Over 43.5
Ravens vs. Texans
While the injuries in the first Christmas game point toward the over, the Ravens and Texans could be without key offensive weapons in this game.
Houston lost Tank Dell to a tragic knee injury last week, and he’ll miss the remainder of the season. Already down Stefon Diggs, the Texans lack true difference-makers at wide receiver beyond Nico Collins.
The Ravens’ season-long defensive metrics don’t paint a pretty picture, but Baltimore has made massive strides recently. The decision to bench Marcus Williams, move Kyle Hamilton to free safety, and move Marlon Humphrey to the slot has paid dividends as the Ravens have allowed just four completions over 25 yards since Week 11, tied for the fewest in the NFL.
C.J. Stroud has been under pressure constantly this season, facing a 25.8% pressure rate (third-highest). The team’s offensive line woes continue this week with Shaq Mason expected to miss this game.
Consider Kendrick Green a downgrade, especially against a Ravens defensive line featuring Nnamdi Madubuike, who ranks seventh among interior pass rushers with 50 pressures.
Taking an under game in a Ravens game is a scary proposition, with the Baltimore offense ranking first in DVOA. However, the Texans rank first in defensive DVOA, and I expect DeMeco Ryans to have a strong game plan.
It’s also worth noting that the Ravens are dealing with injuries on offense. Nelson Agholor remains in concussion protocol, Rashod Bateman played through an injury last week and Zay Flowers (shoulder), Justice Hill (concussion), and Tyler Linderbaum (back) are listed as questionable.
The Texans offense ranks dead last in early down success rate, and the Ravens’ improving defense should stymie them without Dell. Expect Houston’s defense to do enough to push this game under.
This is also a Luck Rankings under, which have gone 134-92-3 (59.2%) all time against closing lines. Luck totals are 19-10 (65.5%) this season.
Verdict: Bet Under 46.5
Thursday Night Football
Seahawks vs. Bears
After firing Matt Eberflus and Shane Waldron, the Bears’ coaching staff has been stretched incredibly thin, and interim head coach Thomas Brown is doing all he can to keep things afloat.
However, Chicago looks entirely unprepared for the start of most games — it has gone 4-11 against the spread (ATS) in the first half, the worst mark in the NFL.
Since their win over the Jaguars in London, which feels like an eternity ago, the Bears have been outscored by 10.9 points per game in the first half. They’ve scored 5.1 points per game in the first half and have been shut out entirely in four of nine games.
The Seahawks defense has been much improved over the second half of the season, ranking sixth in defensive EPA/play since Week 9, and Mike Macdonald will have a game plan to confuse Caleb Williams early.
The Bears’ offensive line woes have been well-documented, and they could be without two of their best starters this week after left tackle Braxton Jones landed on IR and Teven Jenkins suffered a calf injury on Sunday.
Chicago’s defense rapidly declined after Eberflus was fired; it ranks dead last in EPA/play allowed since Week 14. The Bears rank 30th in run defense DVOA so the Seahawks can establish a rushing presence early, while their below-average pass rush should be a reprieve for Seattle’s offensive line woes.
The Seahawks are fighting for their playoff lives after dropping last week’s game to the Vikings. While we can often see spreads overinflated for teams in that scenario late in the year, I’m not sure the line here is appropriately adjusted for how poorly the Bears have started games over the back half of the season.
Take Seattle to cover the spread in the first half.
Verdict: Bet Seahawks 1H -2.5
NFL Saturday Slate
Chargers vs. Patriots
The Chargers can clinch a playoff spot with a win, and Justin Herbert has a great chance to continue his excellent play. His raw numbers don’t put him in the MVP conversation, but he’s put together a stellar year and ranks third in PFF’s passing grades and big-time throw rate despite playing with a lackluster group of pass-catchers.
Ladd McConkey should be able to cook a Patriots defense that ranks 31st against the pass in DVOA. New England runs man coverage at the fourth-highest rate, and McConkey ranks top three in yards per route run and average separation score against man coverage, per Fantasy Points.
Los Angeles’ offensive line has been an issue at points this season, particularly on the interior. The tackle duo of Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater is arguably the league’s best young tandem, but interior pressure has hurt Herbert. However, the Patriots rank 30th in pressure rate, so Herbert should have time to operate in the pocket.
The Patriots put a scare in the Bills last week as Drake Maye continues to show immense upside in his rookie season. Unfortunately, the rest of New England’s roster leaves a lot to be desired, with arguably the worst pass-blocking line in the league.
Jesse Minter’s Chargers defense has slipped in recent weeks as it has played some better opponents, but he’ll have a great game plan in this one.
The Chargers are in a great spot to secure their postseason berth, and Jim Harbaugh will have his team well-prepared for this matchup.
Los Angeles is 10-4-1 ATS in the first half this season, while New England is 5-10 ATS, including 3-7 ATS with Maye. Back the Chargers to build an early lead and hold on for the win with the halftime/full-time game prop, currently lined at +105 on BetMGM.
Verdict: Bet Chargers Half Time / Full Time (+105 BetMGM)
Broncos vs. Bengals
The Bengals’ season is hanging by a thread — they need to win out and see the Broncos lose out to reach the postseason.
Joe Burrow is having a meteoric season, while Ja’Marr Chase is on pace to win the receiving triple crown. That duo will be tested against Denver’s defense, which ranks fourth in DVOA.
Broncos cornerback Riley Moss should return for this matchup, which makes a massive difference. Denver has dropped from the sixth-highest man coverage rate through the first 12 weeks to the 15th-highest rate since Week 13, as they don’t trust their other corners to hold up. With Patrick Surtain II and Moss starting, Denver can return to its aggressive blitzing defense.
That high blitz rate should pay dividends here. Denver leads the NFL in pressure rate, while Cincinnati’s offensive line has been a significant weakness all year.
The Bengals rank 29th in pass-block win rate and Orlando Brown has played just one game since Week 8. Cody Ford started at left tackle last week and posted a 23.9 PFF pass-blocking grade. Amarius Mims’ status is also important to monitor after he was limited to 34 snaps last week — Devin Cochran posted a 28.3 PFF pass-blocking grade in relief.
The Bengals defense has consistently let them down this year, ranking 29th in DVOA. Broncos head coach Sean Payton will enter this game with plenty of time to devise a plan of attack after the Broncos played on Thursday Night Football last week.
Bo Nix should have a clean pocket to work with — the Bengals rank 22nd in pass-rush win rate, and the Broncos rank first in pass-block win rate. That makes all the difference for the rookie passer, as you can see below:
- Nix with a clean pocket: 70.3% completion rate; 6.8 yards per attempt; 18 touchdowns to 7 interceptions; 82.8 PFF passing grade
- Nix under pressure: 46% completion rate; 5.2 yards per attempt; 4 touchdowns to 4 interceptions; 37.7 PFF passing grade
The Broncos should also get Jaleel McLaughlin back for this game, making a huge difference for their struggling rush attack. Denver ranks 26th in rushing DVOA, but it found some upside with McLaughlin in wide zone schemes that I can see being effective against the Bengals, who allow a 52% success rate on zone runs, the seventh-highest mark in the NFL.
Ultimately, we’re getting over the key number of 3 here with Payton on extended rest against Zac Taylor on a short week.
Payton-coached teams are 42-21 SU (67%) on extended prep, and he’s gone 83-60-3 ATS (58%) on the road or on a neutral site. That includes a 33-16-1 ATS mark since 2018, the best for any coach in the NFL over that span.
Verdict: Bet Broncos +3.5
Cardinals vs. Rams
8 p.m. ET
The Rams can clinch a playoff spot with a win. After starting the season 1-4, they have gone 8-2 since.
Sean McVay has gone 30-18-1 ATS against NFC West opponents, including 12-3-1 ATS against the Cardinals. He’s the fourth best among all coaches against divisional opponents over the last 20 years.
The Rams have had top-10 offense by EPA/play and success rate since Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned to the lineup in Week 8. The Cardinals have been a much-improved defense in recent weeks, ranking sixth in pass defense EPA since Week 9, but their secondary will be put to the test by Matthew Stafford with a full complement of offensive weaponry.
After looking like the team to beat in the NFC West a few weeks ago, the Cardinals have gone 1-4 in their last five games, and the Rams look poised to secure the division.
I expect the Rams to get the win, but I don’t have a strong take on the spread or total.
Verdict: Pass
NFL Sunday Slate
Jets vs. Bills
Weather could impact this game, with the early forecast showing 10-15 mph winds and a 70% chance of rain.
This game features a profitable long-term trend, as well. Divisional unders in Week 11 or later for outdoor games with a total of 44.5 or more have gone under 59% of the time since the system began tracking over a 420-game sample. Finally, this is a Luck Under, with luck totals going 19-10 (65%) this season.
However, I need more clarity on defensive injuries in this game before pulling the trigger.
The Bills were missing several key players last week — Rasul Douglas, Matt Milano, Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin and DeWayne Carter were all out. Meanwhile, the Jets were missing Quinnen Williams and Michael Carter II last week.
If we get two healthy defenses in this AFC East matchup, I’ll have interest in the under.
Verdict: Lean Under 47
Raiders vs. Saints
The Saints are a complete corpse at this point of the season, missing their starting quarterback, running back, top two wide receivers and multiple offensive linemen.
I would have had interest in the Raiders at the +2.5 line that opened a couple of days ago, but backing a 3-12 road favorite isn’t something I’m rushing to do.
Unfortunately, after looking like the best Raiders running back in recent weeks, Sincere McCormick has landed on IR. I would have loved to bet his prop in this game against a dreadful Saints run defense that ranks 31st in DVOA.
Keep an eye on where Brock Bowers’ props open, as New Orleans ranks 28th in DVOA against tight ends. Bowers needs 10 yards to break Mike Ditka’s rookie record.
Verdict: Pass
Colts vs. Giants
Like the Saints, the Giants are a total corpse — but should Anthony Richardson really be favored by over a touchdown on the road against any NFL team?
Out of 34 qualified quarterbacks, Richardson ranks 34th in EPA+CPOE with the second-highest turnover-worthy play rate. Trusting him to win with margin is difficult given his overall inconsistency.
This is a Luck Rankings game with the Giants holding a luck difference of 24 spots. Luck sides are 128-78-6 ATS (61.8%) in regular-season games against the closing line.
This game also fits a profitable long-term trend. Underdogs of 3+ points after a loss of 20+ points are 339-260-13 ATS (57%).
The Giants are the side here, but I don’t feel any need to rush to bet this one. The Colts could generate significant interest throughout the week as they’re fighting for their playoff lives in the AFC, and this line could climb as we get closer to kickoff.
Verdict: Lean Giants +8.5
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Bryce Young continues to elevate his production under first-year head coach Dave Canales; the Alabama product was the highest-graded passer in the NFL in Week 16, according to PFF.
Outside of his stinker against the Cowboys, Young has 16 big-time throws to just three turnover-worthy plays since Week 12. He’ll have an opportunity to continue his strong run of play against the Buccaneers, who rank 31st in pass defense success rate.
However, I don’t have much faith in the Panthers finding stops in this game.
Baker Mayfield has played at an elite level under first-year offensive coordinator Liam Coen, and Carolina ranks 30th against the pass and 32nd against the run in DVOA. Keep an eye on Jalen McMillan’s props in this game — the rookie wideout continues to emerge as a difference maker for Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers and Falcons are in a heated race for the NFC South, and the Panthers will look to play spoiler over the next two weeks.
This should be a high-scoring game, and it’s one that’s ripe for player prop value, but I don’t have a take on the side or total.
Verdict: Pass
Titans vs. Jaguars
The Jaguars’ pass defense has been vulnerable to big plays through the air all season — they rank 32nd against the pass by DVOA.
Will Levis couldn’t take advantage in his start against them a few weeks ago, however, and I don’t have a ton of faith in Mason Rudolph’s start being any different. Keep an eye on Calvin Ridley’s props, however, after he got unlucky to finish with just 59 yards against his former team in their prior matchup.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s offense provides little upside with Mac Jones under center. Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. looks like a long-term superstar, but Jones has struggled to connect with him consistently downfield. Tennessee’s defense surrendered 38 points to the Colts last week, but I’d expect a better performance this week.
This total dropped to 39.5 after opening at 40.5, which isn’t the direction I was hoping it would go. I’d play the under at 41 or better, but at the current number, it’s a pass for me.
Verdict: Lean Under 41 or Better
Cowboys vs. Eagles
When these teams met earlier this season, the Cowboys offense was lifeless against the Eagles’ elite defense as Cooper Rush finished 13-for-23 passing for 45 yards. The Eagles do an excellent job of limiting explosive plays, and they rank first in defensive EPA/play and success rate since their Week 5 bye.
The Cowboys have shown a ton of fight in their pass rush and secondary in recent weeks, but their run defense still ranks 29th in DVOA.
Philadelphia leads the NFL in rush play rate when playing with a lead this season, as they’re expected to do here as 9.5-point favorites. Saquon Barkley should get a heavy workload against this vulnerable run defense.
The total in this game has dropped since opening, but I’d still lean toward the under at 41 or better.
Verdict: Lean Under 41.5
Dolphins vs. Browns
Dorian Thompson-Robinson struggled in his start for the Browns last week, completing just 58.8% of his passes for 157 yards and two interceptions despite facing a Bengals defense that ranks among the worst in the league. His status is worth monitoring after suffering a calf injury, but it sounds like he’ll be good to go.
Jameis Winston or Bailey Zappe could get the call if DTR is unavailable, but neither is a great option.
The Dolphins would need a ton to break right, but they still aren’t eliminated from the postseason. It starts with a win this week, which I expect them to get.
So long as the weather permits, Tua Tagovailoa should have plenty of success against a Browns defense that ranks 26th against the pass by DVOA.
Miami is a solid option for a teaser leg this week, but I’m not rushing to lay 6.5 points with them on the road.
Verdict: Pass
Packers vs. Vikings
When the Packers and Vikings met earlier this season, Minnesota built an early 28-point lead as Green Bay missed two early missed field goals and two Jordan Love interceptions gave the Vikings great field position.
However, the Packers made a furious comeback and nearly stole the win at home. They clinched a playoff spot last week and will look to play spoiler to a Vikings team that controls their own destiny for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Minnesota’s elite defense has spurred its impressive season, but Green Bay’s defense actually ranks two spots higher in weighted DVOA despite playing a tougher schedule. Rookie linebacker Edgerrin Cooper has been a game-wrecking phenom in recent weeks, emerging as a linchpin of a Jeff Hafley defense that has continued to improve over the course of the season.
Matt LaFleur is 23-9 ATS and 18-14 outright as an underdog, both of which are the best marks of any coach with at least 15 games as an underdog in the Super Bowl era.
If you’re looking for a play on the spread, I could only look to back LaFleur here, but the lines look about right to me. This should be a thrilling game between two NFC North rivals.
Verdict: Lean Packers +1.5
Falcons vs. Commanders
Yes, he was playing the Giants, but Michael Penix Jr. had an impressive debut for the Falcons last week.
The rookie quarterback posted 7.48 yards per attempt and his 81.5% catchable throw rate was fourth among all quarterbacks on the week. Unlike Kirk Cousins, he did an excellent job of avoiding negative plays with a 0.0% turnover-worthy play rate and zero sacks on nine pressures. His interception was almost entirely the fault of Kyle Pitts.
Frankly, offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has to be thrilled simply that Atlanta has a quarterback who can move around in the pocket. The Falcons should be able to support Penix with the run game in this matchup, as the Commanders rank 25th in run defense DVOA and 31st in line yards allowed to running backs. Bijan Robinson should be able to churn out yardage here.
Jayden Daniels is coming off one of his most impressive games of the season, posting five touchdowns against the Eagles, who have had the best defense in the league lately.
The Falcons are vulnerable through the air, ranking 24th in pass defense DVOA, but the Commanders will be without Noah Brown and Austin Ekeler, leaving the offense limited in terms of difference-making pass-catchers.
The Falcons should be the fresher team after coasting to a win over the Giants, while the Commanders were in a slugfest against their divisional rival.
I’d lean toward taking the points with the road underdog, but I’m mostly excited to watch these exciting rookie quarterbacks duke it out in a primetime game with playoff implications.
Verdict: Lean Falcons +4.5
Monday
Lions vs. 49ers
The schedule makers likely anticipated a late-season rematch with significant ramifications when setting this matchup for Monday Night Football.
When the Lions and 49ers met in the NFC Championship, San Francisco rallied from a 17-point deficit in an instant classic, winning 34-31 to reach the Super Bowl. The 49ers closed as 7.5-point favorites in that game, but much has changed since then.
The Niners have had a season to forget amidst close losses and injuries, and Kyle Shanahan confirmed that offensive linemen Trent Williams and Aaron Banks have been shut down for the remainder of the season. However, the Lions defense doesn’t look poised to take advantage of the 49ers’ beat up offensive line with tons of injuries of their own.
The Lions have finally reached a breaking point, ranking 30th in defensive EPA/play over the last month despite two games against the haphazard Bears in that span.
The 49ers are missing Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk, while Deebo Samuel has taken a massive step back. However, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle should be able to take advantage of Detroit's secondary, while Isaac Guerendo is trending to return to play this week.
Jared Goff and the Lions’ passing game have done their best to paper over the team’s defensive deficiencies. Over the last two weeks, Goff is averaging an absurd 415 passing yards and four touchdowns. Detroit has also increased its pass play rate, ranking seventh in pass rate over expectation (7.2%) over the last two weeks with David Montgomery out for the rest of the regular season.
One of the biggest strengths for San Francisco has been its pass defense, which ranks fifth in DVOA. Nick Bosa is back in the lineup after missing a few games, and his pass-rushing presence should be vital in this matchup. The Niners are also a much better team with Talanoa Hufanga back on the field after he missed most of the season.
As most Lions games are these days, this game is expected to be a complete shootout with an over/under of 50.5 points. However, the market isn’t properly accounting for the Lions’ injuries on defense, as they’ve regressed mightily in recent weeks.
While this has become a lost season for the 49ers, we can still expect a strong effort in their last home game of the year. I’m backing Kyle Shanahan in an incredibly rare spot as a home underdog of over a field goal.
Verdict: Bet 49ers +3.5
