Welcome back to the Pick Six.
Each week, we look ahead at the upcoming NFL slate and parlay six moneylines that "should" win — at least on paper — in the week to come.
It's a quick, early look at the upcoming Week 16 games, and like any good pick-six, we'll wrap up with my Extra Point, one more thing you need to know, and a future to bet as we flip the NFL calendar to another new week.
We're doing things a little differently in Week 16, though.
I'm seeing value on a handful of underdogs this week, so rather than riding with favorites, we're calling our shot and hoping to create a Christmas miracle with just two favorites and four underdogs.
You can play them individually or round-robin if you prefer, but we can all use a little extra cash at the holidays, so let's see if we win big.
Our Week 16 moneyline parlay has odds of +11449 at DraftKings as of publishing — oh, baby! Let's get to this week's NFL picks!
NFL Week 16 Parlay Picks
Saints Moneyline
Jets vs Saints, Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Let's start with a nice, easy favorite to get things rolling.
Wait, what? Yes, the New Orleans Saints are one of our two favorites — and they're solidly favored at -4.5.
Believe it or not, New Orleans is playing pretty good football. The Saints haven't gotten beaten thoroughly since the first Sunday of November, and they're actually on a real bona fide win streak.
The Saints beat both the Bucs and Panthers, and they earned those wins. You could make a good argument that this is the best team in the NFC South right now.
New Orleans may have the best unit in the division — its defense. Brandon Staley has done wonders with this squad, and he has New Orleans playing at a fringe top-10 level over the last six weeks.
The offense still isn't great, but it could get Alvin Kamara back this week, and rookie Tyler Shough continues to play surprisingly well. He passes the eye test, and the advanced metrics match. He has more wins than any rookie QB despite his late start.
Shough is playing well enough that he's pushed the Saints out of position for a top draft pick, and he may have earned himself the job in the process.
Good luck finding much positive to say about the Jets. They do manage to hang around in most games, though they just haven't found many answers on either side of the ball of late. The Jets are now in the bottom four in DVOA on both offense and defense, and trending in the wrong direction.
The Jets will have a massive special teams advantage here, which could keep things close, but New Orleans' terrific run defense should come in handy against the league's run-heaviest attack and force third-string rookie QB Brady Cook to try to win on the road.
Believe it not, the Saints have a decisive QB advantage in this one. They look like the better team all around, and the Jets are the team more motivated to tank, so let's grab Shough and the Saints as one of our two favorites.
Oh, you think Shough was fun? We've got two more rookie QBs to come… and one extremely not rookie. Let's keep moving.
Titans Moneyline
Chiefs vs Titans, Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Come on down, Cam Ward!
Ward has quietly played relatively well this season for a rookie No. 1 pick QB, even if he hasn't gotten much help. The weapons chest is pretty barren in Tennessee, though Tony Pollard seems to have found something the last few weeks, and the offensive line is finally starting to come together.
The Titans have been bad rather than awful in recent weeks. They beat the Browns in Cleveland and played the Chargers, Texans, Seahawks, and 49ers pretty competitively. Tennessee's pass defense is still pretty terrible, and the offense can't do much, but Jeffrey Simmons and T'Vondre Sweat have given the defense a nasty edge and an outstanding run defense.
Besides, are we positive the mighty Kansas City Chiefs are even a better team than the Titans at this point?
This line was Chiefs -10.5 on Sunday morning before everything fell apart.
Patrick Mahomes has already undergone surgery on torn knee ligaments, and Kansas City's season is officially over — a full six weeks longer than Mahomes has ever been eliminated before.
So exactly how far do you move the line to account for Gardner Minshew instead of Mahomes?
The knock-on effects could be incredible. Kansas City has been playing a Super Bowl week after week with the target on its back for seven consecutive grueling seasons.
How much will this recently improved defense push, now that it's a lost cause? What will Chris Jones or Travis Kelce have to offer at this point? What plays will the coaches have saved in reserve?
Minshew means the defense can focus even more on the conservative run game, and it means the bad receivers are even less valuable. We're also about to find out just how much Mahomes elevated this offensive line, now missing its top four tackles, along with G Trey Smith.
If the Chiefs really want this one, Steve Spagnuolo's pressure can likely cause some problems for Ward, and Mahomes would've shredded this pass defense.
But what's the motivation for Kansas City here? The Titans are playing to develop culture, a young QB, and to save the coaching staff's jobs. A win against the Chiefs still feels like it counts. Tennessee also doesn't need to tank for a QB — it already has one.
How about adding a win over the mighty Chiefs to the resume, Cam Ward?
Dolphins Moneyline
Bengals vs Dolphins, Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
When in doubt, always back a seventh-round rookie QB making his first NFL start on a short week of preparation, am I right?
Look, we said we were trying for a Christmas miracle, so come on down, Quinn Ewers.
Ewers was disastrous in his preseason debut — 5-of-18 with two sacks and two fumbles — but improved significantly in his subsequent appearances and found success in his brief regular-season appearance, too.
If you're going to make an NFL debut at quarterback, can the conditions get much better than at home against the worst defense in the league for a team that just got eliminated from the postseason?
The Dolphins are actually top five by DVOA over the last six weeks of football, top quarter of the league on both offense and defense.
I don't totally buy that profile, greatly boosted by the one huge Bills win. However, the team has been competitive, and the defense is greatly improved, especially against the run, while Mike McDaniel has found a really creative and fun rushing attack.
If you're Ewers making your debut, why not just hand the ball off all game to DeVon Achane against one of the league's worst run defenses?
No team allows more fantasy points to opposing RBs or TEs than the Bengals, so Achane and Darren Waller should be in line for a big day — and those guys should make life much easier on Ewers.
The Bengals were playing better with Joe Flacco than they have with Joe Burrow, and Cincinnati's offense has been way worse on the road — bottom seven by DVOA, versus top seven at home. The offense continues to be vanilla and predictable, and it hasn't been the same when Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins aren't out there together.
In theory, Cincinnati's passing attack should shred this Miami pass defense. But in theory, Joe Burrow should've made the playoffs more than twice in six seasons with the Bengals, and yet here we are, stuck in reality.
Believe it or not, I make the Dolphins favored in this one. I find that as hard to believe as you do, but it tells me I definitely see value in Miami at a long number when I can't get anywhere close to Bengals -4.5, and rising.
That may not make this the most likely win on the board, but it implies serious value.
Lions Moneyline
Steelers vs Lions, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
We're taking one actual "easy" pick this week, and so help me if the Lions somehow blow this for us.
This is my favorite play on the board in Week 16.
Historically, it's been a good idea to back the "Rah Rah" trends and bet Mike Tomlin as an underdog, but this is not a great spot for those trends. They're stronger at home, stronger as a short dog, stronger in division games, and after a loss. This is none of those things.
The Lions, on the other hand, have now won 15 straight after a loss dating back to the start of November 2022, and they're 14-1 ATS in those games, covering by an incredible 11.2 PPG. Jared Goff continues to be untouchable playing indoors with the Lions at 71% ATS.
Detroit isn't even in the playoff picture right now, although it is still pretty close to controlling its fate if it just wins out. The Lions offense still looks elite, both rushing and passing, and the defense has fallen off in the secondary, but may be facing the perfect opponent for that.
Pittsburgh wants to run the ball and throw short passes — the Steelers throw almost three-quarters of their passes short, most in the league. Pittsburgh wants to get into heavy and force opponents to match.
That's exactly the wrong script against the Lions, who already prefer to get their outstanding linebackers on the field, and it protects the depleted secondary from being beaten over the top if everything stays short and underneath.
Detroit's defense ranks in the top five in DVOA at home on the season, and the Steelers' defense has been far worse on the road.
The Lions should also find some success on the ground against Pittsburgh's banged-up defensive front, especially on a short week, and the Steelers will struggle to contain the middle of the field or stop the inside run.
If Pittsburgh's pass rush can't get home early and often, Goff could take this defense apart.
The Steelers are basically what we thought they were at this point, same as every other season. The defense is good but not great, and the offense is nowhere near good enough.
All eight Detroit wins this season are by at least a touchdown, six of them by 13 or more points, with an average margin of victory of 22.3 PPG. This one could get ugly — but all we need is a W.
Patriots Moneyline
Patriots vs Ravens, Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
The Patriots are our lone road team of the week, and they enter Sunday night reeling after blowing a 21-0 home lead against the Bills. Now they need to right the ship against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.
Has anyone stopped to consider the Ravens just might not be very good this season?
Baltimore hasn't looked right at any point since the opening weeks. The defense is improved but still above average at best, and the offense just lacks verve. The rushing attack has found some footing of late, but the passing attack ranks in the bottom five by DVOA over the last six weeks.
Lamar Jackson just isn't right, and that changes everything for this team. The run game is less dynamic, and the passing game lacks juice. Suddenly, the defense is on the field more and in worse positions — the cascading effect is huge.
Both teams' season-long metrics show beatable secondaries behind good run defenses. New England's run defense has been quite poor lately and misses Milton Williams — a real concern against the Ravens –, but this probably comes down to the passing attacks and which quarterback you trust more.
And right now, there's absolutely no question that the answer is Drake Maye.
The Ravens rank in the bottom 10 in explosives allowed, and Maye has shredded opponents deep all season in an MVP campaign. Baltimore also has the metrics of a bottom-10 team at home for the season.
For his career, Lamar Jackson has been great in the first half of games; not so this season at 4-7 ATS.
The Patriots have the league's top first-half offense and are a league-best 11-3 ATS in the first half. That sets up a script for New England to get ahead early and neuter some of Baltimore's rushing prowess, and the Ravens offense has been far better with a lead but tenuous when it has to play from behind.
Mike Vrabel has a winning record as an underdog of three or more points as head coach, an impressive 22-20 SU, with moneyline bettors profiting at a 65% ROI clip in that spot.
Could Sunday night be Drake Maye's MVP moment?
Colts Moneyline
49ers vs Colts, Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Listen, I warned you it wasn't all rookies.
If we're going to bank on a Christmas miracle, it may as well end with the last game before Christmas and a 44-year-old out-of-retirement grandfather leading us to glory, right?
I think Philip Rivers can score on this 49ers defense.
San Francisco's defense has been besieged by injuries all season. The 49ers have zero pass rush and little talent left on that side of the ball, and that means this is a very different task for Rivers than on the road against the mighty Seahawks — where he nearly won anyway.
Rivers may be without both offensive tackles. Nevertheless, Jonathan Taylor should find room to run against San Francisco. That also helps set up Shane Steichen's play-action, and Rivers showed his usual touch and timing and should have time this week to get throws off.
This is not the Pro Bowl version of Rivers. He's not going to hit many throws down the field with his lack of arm strength, and the playbook was clearly limited in his debut. But remember, that came on just a few days to prepare, straight out of five years of retirement, so don't underestimate what a week of practice can do, too.
San Francisco is one of the quieter 10-win teams in recent memory. However, this game has very little meaning for the 49ers if the Rams win on Thursday night. It matters much more to Indianapolis, still fighting for its life and trying to make magic for Rivers.
Daniel Jones isn't the only player missing from the Colts. The line is compromised, and the defense is missing key names on the line and in the secondary. San Francisco's offense could just hang a crooked number on this unit, and Rivers probably can't win a shootout.
Indianapolis's defense ranks in the top five by DVOA in the first quarter, and it's much better at defending the run.
San Francisco's rushing attack can be hit or miss, so if the 49ers play conservatively or commit too heavily to the run game, that could keep the game closer than expected and give the Colts a chance, much like last week in Seattle.
The Colts have defended well against motion and under-center plays, and the 49ers may not have the weapons to hurt Indy's backup corners down the field.
Indianapolis ranks in the top three in Success Rate and explosives on the season offensively. Those metrics are dust now that Jones is out, but the 49ers defense ranks in the bottom five in Success Rate and in the bottom 10 in explosives.
San Francisco's defense is gettable, and Steichen's offense can pull the right levers to get them a few times. The 49ers also play the most light-box defense in the league, on nearly 90% of its snaps.
The Colts have crushed light-box defenses all season. If the 49ers stubbornly stick to their usual, Taylor could pop a couple of big ones.
Believe it or not, I make this close to a toss-up, and nowhere near the current line that has the 49ers favored on the road by nearly a touchdown. Indianapolis can score enough to have a shot.
Philip Rivers didn't get the dream Cinderella ending last week. We'll need him to finish the job this time for our Christmas miracle.
Anderson's Extra Point
While many teams are preparing for the playoffs in December, others have their eyes on another prize — next year's top draft pick.
Right now, the Giants, Raiders and Titans are tied for the worst record in the league at 2-12, with the Browns, Jets, and Cardinals one game "behind" at three wins. One of those teams will almost certainly finish the year with the worst record and the No. 1 pick.
However, it may not necessarily be one of those first three teams.
For starters, the Giants play the Raiders in Week 17 — basically guaranteeing a third win for at least one of those two teams.
The Titans and Raiders also play the Chiefs down the stretch, and that just turned from a surefire loss into something much closer to a coin flip.
The Giants play three eliminated teams and already have their QB of the future. The Titans could beat the Saints in Week 17 and might get a resting Jaguars team in the finale. The Raiders get Geno Smith back and have winnable games against the Giants and Chiefs.
Enter the Cleveland Browns.
The Browns are 3-11 and have the league's worst offense and special teams units by DVOA. Shedeur Sanders ranks last in virtually every advanced metric among QBs since his debut, and the offense is lost and has zero blocking right now. The defense has slipped from elite to great, and when everything else is that bad, that dropoff matters.
The Browns play the Bills and Steelers the next two weeks, both still in need of wins to clinch playoff berths, then the Bengals in the finale, who could be playing to keep Zac Taylor's job and get some momentum into the offseason.
If the Browns lose out, they need one win each from the Giants, Raiders, and Titans to at least tie for the worst record and secure the No. 1 pick (by way of tiebreak).
If the Giants and Titans upset the Vikings and Chiefs this week, then the Raiders beat the Giants next week, and Cleveland losing out would clinch the No. 1 pick and a chance to draft an actual, real NFL quarterback — sorry, Shedeur.
FTN has the Browns at 19.7% to clinch the No. 1 pick, second most likely of any team, but the Browns are +2200 to finish with the league's worst record (bet365).
Those odds are way off, in part because the odds haven't calibrated for these "winnable" games down the stretch for the dregs of the league, especially the Chiefs' games. Tennessee, in particular, is badly mispriced at +170, even though the Titans are under 15% to get the top pick per FTN.
It should be noted that our market is for worst record, not No. 1 pick. If Cleveland finishes alone at 3-11, our bet pays out the full +1800; it's more likely the bet would split two- or three-ways with other 3-11 teams. Even in that case, the odds are still in our favor.
Remember, we're already betting the Titans to win this week, and Action Network's Chris Raybon is on the Giants. The path is there for the Browns, and they badly need to tank to the top and get that quarterback.
Grab Cleveland at +2200 to finish with the league's worst record (bet365).
