Another week, another fantastic set of games, including some massive favorites and some crucial division matchups.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 12 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, November 18, at 5 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
Moneyline Kings
Rich Cats
The Panthers are 6-4 SU as underdogs in just the first 11 games of their season. Their 6 wins as an underdog in their first 11 games are tied for the most for any team since 1990, with the 2010 Bears and 1999 Lions.
Panthers are 6-5 straight up this season, with a $100 bettor taking each game being up $818, for a 74% ROI, best mark for any team in the NFL this season.
In the first 11 games of the season, that is the best ML mark for any team since the 2022 Jets.
Laying The Wood
Big Favorites
• Jets at Ravens (-13.5)
• Seahawks at Titans (+13.5)
• Giants at Lions (-10.5)
We have three double-digit favorites this week. Those big favs are 12-1 SU and 8-5 ATS this year so far.
Double-digit favorites are 54-8 SU (87%) and 35-26-1 ATS (57%) over the last three seasons — this would be the first time we've seen double-digit favorites above .500 ATS three years in a row in the Super Bowl era.
Public Humiliation
Bad Season
According to Action Network betting data, teams with 60%+ of tickets this season are 38-66 ATS through eleven weeks. That is the worst ATS mark for those public bettors in the 23-year history of our database.
A $100 bettor would be down $3,141 taking 60%+ ticket teams ATS this year, for a -30.2% ROI.
Home teams have struggled the most with a heavy ticket count…
60%+: 12-25 ATS
66%+: 8-21 ATS
70%+: 2-12 ATS
West is Best
NFC West At The Top
The NFC West is 18-7 ATS vs. teams outside the division this year, the best mark through 11 weeks for any division since 2016.
All four teams in the NFC West are .500 ATS or better outside the division, the only division that can say that this season.
• Rams: 6-1 ATS
• Seahawks: 5-1 ATS
• Cardinals: 4-2 ATS
• 49ers: 3-3 ATS
Line Changer
Chief Chaos
Last week, the Chiefs had a historic line vs. 8-2 Broncos and lost. This week, KC is 5-5 SU and a favorite vs. the 8-2 Colts.
The Chiefs are the 15th team since 1990 to be 5-5 SU or worse and favored vs. a team with an 80%+ win pct in their 11th game or later. Those previous 14 teams went 14-0 SU and 12-0-2 ATS.
Culture Change
Time is Now
Shedeur Sanders will be the 18th different QB to make his first career start in the regular season for the Browns since they returned to the NFL in 1999. Those QBs are 0-17 SU — The last QB to win was Eric Zeier in 1995.
Different Directions
Post Time
Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 17-12-1 SU, 22-8 ATS off of a SU loss as a duo, but they’ve won and covered 13 in a row dating back to November 1st of 2022. In Goff’s career, he is 24-7 ATS indoors off a SU loss.
Since Christmas of 2023, the 49ers are 1-15 against the spread after an outright win, the worst mark of any team in the NFL. Off of a SU win, playing at home in San Francisco, the 49ers have lost 12 consecutive games ATS, with their last cover coming in October of 2023.
A Star is Born
Home vs. Your Own
Dak Prescott has excelled in his career against NFC East foes. He is 31-13 ATS vs. the NFC East, covering the spread by 6.8 PPG. Since 2003, here are the most profitable QBs ATS vs. Division foes:
- Aaron Rodgers: 59-36 ATS (+$2,004)
- Dak Prescott: 31-13 ATS (+$1,621)
Dak is 21-2 SU and 17-6 ATS at home vs. the NFC East in his career. Dak has won 18 consecutive home games outright vs. the NFC East, dating back to 2017 – his only home losses vs. NFC East are to Carson Wentz and Eli Manning.
When an NFC East team made the playoffs the year prior, they are 0-9 SU when facing Dak Prescott in Dallas, losing by 19.6 PPG.
Win Total Times
In The Air This Week
📈 Overs
Cashed: Colts (7.5), Patriots (8.5)
Cash with win: Broncos (9.5), Panthers (6.5)
*With a win next week, Sean Payton would be 11-5-2 to his win total over in 18 years as a head coach.
*Panthers haven't eclipsed a win total in Week 12 or earlier since 2015, year they made the Super Bowl.
📉 Unders
Cashed: Commanders (9.5)
Cash with loss: Ravens (11.5), Chiefs (11.5), Bengals (9.5)
*Week 12 would be the earliest an Andy Reid team goes under their win total since his last two years in Philadelphia in 2011-12.
*With a loss, Bengals would go under their win total in three straight years, going 8-2 to their win total under in the last decade.
Every NFL Game For Week 12
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➤Josh Allen has faced a top defense – one allowing fewer than 20 PPG – 29 times in his career during the regular season.
Allen is 24-5 SU, 23-5-1 ATS in those games, including 17-4-1 ATS when his opponent is over .500 SU on the season.
➤The Bills have dropped five straight games outright in Houston, last winning there in 2006. Josh Allen has started three of those matchups, and Buffalo has scored 20 points or fewer in each of them.
➤CJ Stroud’s home games have been a reliable spot for the under. He’s 17-5 to the under in 22 career home starts, including four straight. Since the start of last season, 11 of his last 13 home games overall have also stayed under the total.
If Stroud can’t go, Houston is 22-10 to the under at home as a team since 2022, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind only the Chiefs.
➤This is the 3rd primetime game this season for the Texans and they are 0-2 SU/ATS, losing to the Seahawks and Bucs.
Texans have had their share of issues playing in primetime as a franchise. They are 18-31 SU and 15-32-2 ATS in night games.
DeMeco Ryans is 3-4 ATS himself in night games, and with a cover against Buffalo, he would have the 2nd-most covers at night of any Texans HC – Bill O’Brien went 7-13-1 ATS.
➤Josh Allen has started ten career games on short rest when facing a defense allowing under 20 PPG – he is 8-2 SU, with his only losses to Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady.
➤Allen is 24-14 straight up and 18-20 ATS in his career under the lights. He’s dropped his last two night games — against the Falcons and Patriots — and has never lost three straight outright at night. Since the start of 2023, Allen and the Bills are just 4-5 straight up in nine road night games.
➤The Texans have had goal-line issues on offense. Their one rush TD inside the 5-yard line is tied with the Saints for the fewest in the NFL. Except the Texans have had 13 carries and the Saints have had just five. On 13 carries inside the 5, the Texans have a total of 0 rushing yards this season.
➤The Bills almost always put up a dominant performance at home. They are 19-2 SU in their last 21 home games, scoring 24 pts or more in all but one of those games (loss to NE this year).
➤Don’t let Buffalo get hot. Last week, the Bills averaged 7.8 yards per play, scoring 44 points.
Since the start of 2022, Buffalo is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS, the game after averaging 7 yards per play, winning 5 in a row outright dating back to the 2023 season.
➤DeMeco Ryans has prepared his Texans team for a game on short rest, being played during the week before the weekend (Friday or earlier) twice, and Houston is 0-2 SU/ATS in those games, losing by 18.5 PPG, with his team scoring a total of 15 pts in the two games.
➤Bears are 7-3 SU through 10 games. They lead the NFC North, but one step of caution would be Chicago has the 2nd-toughest remaining SOS and the most games vs. teams above .500 left.
The last game Chicago entered with a 70%+ win pct in their 11th game or later? The 2018-19 playoff game at home against the Eagles. They’ve come full circle.
➤What a turnaround it has been for the Chicago Bears.
This season, they are 4-3 SU when the opponent leads by 4+ pts at any point in the game. Their last season above .500 SU in that spot for a full season was back in 2010. Between 2016-24, Chicago went 25-86 SU (23%) in that spot.
Bears have won three straight games by 5 pts or less – Last 20 years, teams who won 3 in a row, all by 5 pts or less, went 12-23-1 ATS in their next game.
Bears have five wins when trailing in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter this season, tied with 2016 Lions and 2011 Broncos for the most for any team since the merger.
➤The role of the road underdog hasn’t been a kind one to Tomlin and the Steelers lately. They’ve lost 4 in a row both SU and ATS, the first time that has happened for Pittsburgh since 2011.
➤Bears have been turnover-friendly this year. They are +16 through ten games, the best mark in the NFL. Chicago has 15 interceptions on defense, the most in the NFL.
The last defense with 15+ INT and a 16+ TO margin through ten games was the Patriots in 2019 and the 49ers in 2011.
➤ The most important metric week-to-week for the Bears is pass protection and sacks on Caleb Williams.
When Caleb gets sacked 2 times or less, the Bears are 9-5 SU, when he gets sacked 3+ times, they are 3-10 SU over the last 2 seasons.
➤If the Steelers start Mason Rudolph, here are some results for Mike Tomlin having to play a backup QB. He’s actually 19-14-1 SU/ATS with a backup QB since 2015.
In that span, when Tomlin is an underdog with a backup QB, Pittsburgh is 8-8 SU and 11-4-1 ATS.
➤Another year of Steelers voodoo. So far this season, Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in one-score games – if they finish .500 SU or better, it will be the 12th consecutive season doing so in one-score games, finishing above .500 ATS six straight years in one-score games.
Pittsburgh was last below .500 SU in one-score games back in 2013. Since 2019, Steelers are 69.1% SU and 67.6% ATS in one-score games.
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➤This is a rivalry, that isn’t really one at all. The Ravens have dominated the Jets. Baltimore is 10-2 SU/ATS in franchise history against New York. At home, Ravens are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS vs. the Jets, winning by 14.2 PPG.
➤As a favorite of more than one possession (more than 8 pts), Lamar Jackson is actually 16-11 ATS as a starter, he’s covered five straight in this spot and is 6-1 ATS since the calendar flipped to 2024.
➤Ravens are favored by 14 pts at home vs. Jets, with a 5-5 SU record entering this game. Baltimore is the first team since 2009 to be .500 or worse on the season and a 14+ pt favorite in their 11th game or later.
Three teams did this actually in 2009, 49ers, Texans and Ravens.
At -13 or higher at .500 or worse, it was actually the Browns back in 2021.
➤The Jets have never been one to take advantage of much. When they are on extended rest/prep time since 2020, the Jets are 3-14 SU and 4-12-1 ATS.
In the Jets last game on extended prep, in Week 10 vs. Browns they won SU/ATS – you have to go all the way back to 2015 to find the last time the Jets won both SU and ATS in two straight games on extended prep time.
➤A serious resurgence from the Ravens defense. After allowing 41, 38, 37 and 44 pts in the first five weeks, Baltimore has now allowed under 20 pts in 5 straight games.
Through the first five weeks, Ravens were 30th in EPA/play on defense, 29th in success rate, including 32nd and last in rush EPA/play, getting gashed on the ground.
Since Week 6, Baltimore is 4th in EPA/play on defense, 4th in success rate, and 3rd in rush EPA/play – an amazing turnaround.
➤Not many teams can say they’ve won 4 straight, directly after losing 4 straight, all in the first ten weeks of the season – first team to do that since 2018 Colts.
Baltimore is the first to do it with a double-digit preseason win total since Packers and Steelers in 2016.
➤Ravens struggled in the red zone against the Browns last week, going just 1-for-4.
Under John Harbaugh, when Ravens are -7.5 or higher week after converting just one RZ trip or fewer, they are 28-3 SU, but 9-17-1 ATS.
➤Nobody loves covering a spread they shouldn’t more than Tyrod Taylor. He is 35-21-4 ATS (63%) in his career. Since the start of 2022, he is 5-0-1 ATS in six starts.
This is also Tyrod’s specialty. When his team is under .500 SU, he is 15-5-1 ATS, including 10-2-1 ATS as an underdog.
➤Ravens have struggled to score early in games this year. They are 1-9 to their 1st half team total over, the worst mark in the NFL. Baltimore was 11-8 to their 1H TTO last season.
In 5 home games in 2025, Baltimore is 0-5 to their 1H team total over.
➤Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 17-12-1 SU, 22-8 ATS off of a SU loss as a duo, but they’ve won and covered 13 in a row dating back to November 1st of 2022.
In Goff’s career, he is 24-7 ATS indoors off a SU loss and just 10-14-1 ATS playing outdoors.
As a head coach, Dan Campbell is 25-14 ATS off of a loss. When he is -4 or higher, his teams are 8-0 ATS in that spot.
➤In game 1 without Brian Daboll, Giants lost, but they did cover the spread. First team to cover after firing a head coach since 2023.
This year, Titans and Giants are 0-5 SU but 3-2 ATS after firing their head coaches entering this week.
➤Lions went 0-for-5 on 4th down last week – a Dan Campbell masterclass. Just the 3rd team to go 0-5 or worse on 4th down in the Super Bowl era (‘22 DET, ‘95 NE).
Since the start of last season, Lions are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS the week after not converting any 4th downs, covering those ten games by 10.6 PPG.
➤Patriots and Giants both play on Monday Night Football next week. Since 2020, teams with MNF on deck are actually covering the spread at a 58.3% rate at 109-78 ATS – this season, these teams are 16-7-1 ATS.
➤Here’s the Lions schedule since Week 5.
Week 5: at Bengals
Week 6: at Chiefs
Week 7: Bucs
Week 9: Vikings
Week 10: Commanders
Week 11: Eagles
Lions will be just the 4th team last 15 years to face six straight opponents with a preseason win total of 9+ – the other three teams went 0-3 ATS in their first game after the 3-game stretch.
Teams at home after facing four consecutive opponents with a regular season win total of 9+ are just 17-29 ATS over the last decade.
➤Actually think Giants can win? Since 2020, double-digit underdogs, who are on a 5-game losing streak or more are 6-21 SU (22%) in November or later – a $100 bettor taking each to win would be up $1,348, for a 50% ROI – oh, this also works for the Titans this week.
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➤Patriots have won 8 straight games – the 2nd team currently on a 8-game win streak, with the Broncos who play next week and are on a bye.
Teams on a 8+ game SU win streak are 39-61-2 ATS (39%) since 2010, including 11-20-1 ATS since 2020.
When a team is on the road on a 8+ game win streak, they are 14-34 ATS since 2010.
➤Joe Flacco has faced Mike Vrabel as a head coach twice in his career as a starter, once with the Broncos and once with the Ravens. Flacco’s teams are 2-0 SU/ATS, winning by a combined score of 37-0, with Vrabel and the Titans at the time being shutout in both games.
➤The over is 5-0 in Bengals home games this year and 11-2 to the over in the last two seasons – going over the total by 15.5 PPG.
Last week, the Bengals-Steelers game went under after Cincinnati only scored 12 points. Since the start of the 2023 season, the over is 12-2 in 14 games with the Bengals after Cincinnati’s previous game went under the total.
➤Bengals have struggled against the spread this season, starting 3-7 ATS through ten games, their worst ATS start to a season since 2016.
➤The Bengals went 0-2 in the red zone, threw for under 200 pass yds and scored just 12 pts – a terrible offensive game for Cincinnati last week.
The game after the Bengals converted 0 red zone trips, you would hope there is a bounce back – under Zac Taylor, they are 3-9 SU including 0-6 SU as an underdog.
➤Patriots are on some extended prep time before this game vs. Zac Taylor and the Bengals. Teams on any extended prep before facing Taylor’s Bengals are actually 8-15-1 ATS, even without Joe Burrow on the other side, those teams are 3-6 ATS vs. Cincinnati.
➤ Patriots faced the Jets last week at home and the Jets don’t exactly get you prepared for your next opponent well. Teams after playing the Jets are 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS this season, including 19-38 ATS over the last four seasons — the worst mark in the NFL by far.
➤Patriots and Giants both play on Monday Night Football next week. Since 2020, teams with MNF on deck are actually covering the spread at a 58.3% rate at 109-78 ATS – this season, these teams are 16-7-1 ATS.
➤The Bengals might be without the NFL leader in receptions this week, with Ja’Marr Chase suspended.
Chase hasn’t missed a game since December of 2023 – a game Cincinnati lost 34-11 in Pittsburgh. In total, Cincinnati is actually 3-2 SU in games Chase misses. Here is how Tee Higgins has performed without Chase.
Tee Higgins with Ja’Marr Chase
2023: 8 targets, 5 rec, 140 yds, TD
2022: 9 targets, 7 rec, 114 yds, TD
2022: 13 targets, 9 rec, 148 yds
2022: 8 targets, 7 rec, 60 yds
2022: 6 targets, 3 rec, 49 yds, TD
➤ Mike Vrabel is 34-11 SU and 28-16-1 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU with the Patriots and Titans. This season, the Patriots are 7-0 SU vs. teams under .500 winning by 13.1 PPG, and since 2020, Vrabel is 25-6 SU vs. bad teams.
➤ The Patriots have started fast lately. Under Drake Maye, they have won 8 straight 1st halves on the moneyline, including 11-1 1H ML in their last 12 games dating back to last season.
Since the calendar flipped to 2025, Maye is 10-2 1H ATS, with New England’s only 1H ML loss to the Steelers back in September.
➤Seahawks are 8-2 ATS this season, best mark for any team in the NFL. This is Seattle’s first 8-2 ATS start since 1991.
➤Seahawks are massive road favorites in Tennessee this week.
At -13 or higher, it is the…
Largest road favorite since Ravens (-16.5) at Giants last year
Largest road fav. In Week 12 or earlier since Eagles (-14) at Texans in 2022
Since 2020, favorites of above 11 pts on the road are just 3-7 ATS. More alarmingly, they are just 5-5 SU in those ten games.
➤We have a winning streak. ATS that is. Titans have now covered 2 in a row.
Tennesse broke a 9-game ATS losing streak after an ATS win last week vs. Texans – now Tennessee goes for 3 straight ATS wins, which it hasn’t done in the same season since November of 2022.
You have to go all the way back to Week 4 of 2024 to find the last time the Titans scored more TDs than their opponent in a single game and they haven’t done it at home since Week 18 of 2023.
➤The Seahawks travel to Tennessee this week to face the Titans. Since the Titans franchise moved to Tennessee in 1997, Seattle is 1-7 ATS on the road vs. Tennessee with their only cover coming in an outright loss back in 2010.
➤The 1P ET window has been a friend to Seattle. Entering this week, they’ve won six straight outright at 1P ET, including 5-0 SU since the start of last season.
➤Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having a season to remember so far.
He is the first player in NFL history to record 75+ receiving yards in 10 straight games to begin a season and he is the first player since Julio Jones in 2016 and Calvin Johnson in 2012-13 to have 1,000+ rec yds and a 16.5+ yards/reception through ten games.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's average depth of target:
2023: 6.1
2024: 8.7
2025: 12.3
➤Even after last week, under Mike Macdonald, the Seahawks are 9-3-1 ATS on the road, including 5-1-1 ATS when playing on the east coast, winning five in a row.
➤Sam Darnold had an episode of ghosts last week – and Seattle can’t afford that to continue. With the Jets and Panthers, Darnold started five games after throwing 3+ INT – his teams went 0-5 SU/ATS after the bad performance.
In one 3+ INT game with Minnesota during the season, which had a game after that, Darnold faced the Titans in Tennessee and won 23-13.
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➤Packers have lost two consecutive games both SU and ATS vs. the Vikings – you have to go back to 2005 to find the last time Green Bay lost three straight both SU and ATS vs. Minnesota.
Matt LaFleur and Kevin O’Connell have met six times as head coaches, this is the first time Green Bay has entered with a better record than Minnesota.
➤JJ McCarthy has had his struggles this season, but his play on late downs has really put Minnesota in a bind.
- McCarthy is 7-of-23 passing (30.4%) on 3rd and 4th downs with 5 yds to go or less. 30 QBs have 20+ pass att in that spot this year, the closest QB to McCarthy is Jayden Daniels at 42.9%.
- McCarthy has ultimately struggled the most on 3rd down. His passer rating of 25.4 would be the lowest over a full season since 2000 (lowest is Kordell Stewart at 30.4 in 2003).
➤This will be the third time Jordan Love and the Packers face the Vikings at home in Lambeau Field, Green Bay is 0-2 SU in those games, trailing by a combined score of 38-10 at the half in both games. When looking at the seven home games Love has started vs. the NFC North, Green Bay is just 2-5 ATS in those games.
➤The Vikings aren’t doing much right this season. They are 4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS and here are their ATS records by quarter this season
1st Q: 4-6
2nd Q: 3-7
3rd Q: 4-6
4th Q: 4-6
➤JJ McCarthy has faced three teams not off a bye or in Week 1 so far as a starter – the Vikings are 0-3 SU/ATS in those games with Minnesota scoring fewer than 20 pts in all three games.
➤Packers are 3-7 ATS this season through ten games, only the Commanders have a worse ATS mark this year at 3-8 ATS.
For Green Bay, they haven’t started 3-7 ATS through ten games prior to this season since 2000.
➤Since November 1st, Jordan Love is 0-3 ATS as a starting QB, the only 0-3 ATS QB in that span.
In the Packers last eight starts with Love, they are 1-7 ATS, with their only cover coming against the Steelers. Since Christmas of last year, Packers are 3-10 ATS, worst record in the NFL.
Green Bay is 0-6 ATS this season as a 4-pt favorite or more — the first team 0-6 ATS or worse in this spot through 11 weeks since 1997 Packers (0-8-1 ATS).
➤Entering Week 12, the Packers have the toughest remaining SOS of any team, with their opponents having a 59.2% win pct. Their easiest remaining games are this week vs. Vikings and the Ravens.
Against teams under .500 on the season, Jordan Love is just 8-14 ATS, including 0-5 ATS this season. Since he was drafted, 78 QBs have faced an opponent under .500 SU, his 8-14 ATS is the least profitable.
➤The Packers have made a habit of starting slow this season. Green Bay is 3-7 against the first half spread this season, only the Panthers have a worse mark.
Packers have lost the 1H spread in 5 straight games and they are 2-8 to their 1st half team total over – only the Ravens have a worse mark on the 1H TTO, they are 1-9 this year.
➤Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs don’t struggle against many opponents, but as a duo, they are 1-2 SU/ATS vs. the Colts, including losing their last two SU and ATS, with games coming in 2022 (vs. Matt Ryan) and 2019 (vs. Jacoby Brissett).
Of the 31 teams Mahomes has faced, only the Colts (1-2 SU) and Eagles (2-3 SU) are above .500 SU against him.
➤Colts are off a bye last week to face Mahomes and the Chiefs. Nine teams have had a bye week before facing Mahomes and KC, those teams are 6-3 ATS, covering the spread by 5.3 PPG. When those teams are the underdog against KC, they are 6-1 ATS, with their only loss coming from the 49ers vs. Chiefs in 2020 Super Bowl.
➤Rest doesn’t always do a hot team good. Teams with an 80%+ win pct, who are coming off a bye in Week 10 or later are just 36-50-1 ATS (42%) since 2005, but that isn’t so terrible given the line…
As dog or pick’em: 10-6 ATS
As favorite: 26-44-1 ATS
➤A lot has been made of the Chiefs record in one-score games. They are 0-5 SU in one-score games this year. Prior to that stretch, they were not only 12-0 SU in 2024, but they had won 17 consecutive one-score games outright before this losing streak.
➤The ultimate get right spot for the Chiefs offense. Coming off a game with just one red zone trip converted and only five total third and fourth down conversions.
Since the start of 2023, KC has played six games off one RZ conversion or less and five 3rd and 4th down conversions, KC is 6-0 SU in those games.
➤Chiefs are 5-5 SU through ten games. For some perspective, only one team in the Super Bowl era has won it all starting 5-5 or worse, that was 2001 Patriots and only two have made the Super Bowl, with the 1979 Rams joining the party.
➤The progression of Daniel Jones. His passing stats this year compared to the previous two years with the Giants is unreal.
2023-24 – of 33 QBs, 500+ attempts
Pass Rtg: 76.6 (Last)
Yds/Att: 5.9 (32nd)
Sack%: 10.5% (31st)
Pass TD: 10 (Last)
2025 – of 28 QBs, 200+ attempts
Pass Rtg: 101.6 (8th)
Yds/Att: 8.3 (4th)
Sack%: 6.2% (15th)
Pass TD: 15 (14th)
➤Daniel Jones and the Colts have been impressive this season and are now underdogs against the Chiefs. This isn’t the first time a DJ-led team has played well to start the year. When Jones’ team is above .500 SU and listed as an underdog, he is 11-4 ATS.
Of 86 QBs since 2019, Jones’ 11-4 ATS mark is 2nd to Matthew Stafford, who is 11-2 ATS in this spot.
This week starts one of the toughest stretches for the Colts. They currently have the toughest remaining SOS for any AFC team, with their easiest remaining games being this one vs. Chiefs and two vs. Texans.
➤The Jonathan Taylor party comes to KC this weekend. He leads the NFL with 1,139 rush yds, he has 15 rush TDs – which is more than 29 teams this year – and his 6.03 yds/carry also leads the NFL.
Taylor has the most rush yds thru ten games since DeMarco Murray in 2014, who had 1,233 yds. Here are the players with 1,139+ rush yds and 15+ rush TDs through ten games:
2025 Jonathan Taylor
2005 Shaun Alexander
1998 Terrell Davis
1995 Emmitt Smith
1983 Eric Dickerson
Most Rush TD in NFL This Season
22 – Colts
19 – Bills
16 – Giants
15 – Jonathan Taylor
14 – Jaguars
➤This season, the Chiefs are 8-2 against the 4th quarter spread. Since the start of last season, the Chiefs are 20-10 4Q ATS.
➤With a total above 50 this week, it is worth noting that Mahomes is 14-4 to the under in his 18 starts with a total of 50 or higher dating back to 2022, going under the total by almost 5 PPG.
Best QBs to Under Since 2022
1. CJ Stroud: 28-15-1
2. Kenny Pickett: 18-7
3. Patrick Mahomes: 41-28
Mahomes’ last six starts with a total of 50+ have gone under the total. When both teams are .500 SU or better, the under is 23-12 in Mahomes starts since 2022.
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➤Back-to-back bad losses against division opponent for the Cardinals. Allowing 40+ pts in both games, losing by 17+ pts in both games.
This is just the 2nd time since 1990 the Cardinals have allowed 40+ in b2b games, while losing both games by 17+ pts (they did so back in 2002).
Cardinals are first team to do that in b2b games, both against division opponents, since the Chiefs in 2009.
➤Arizona has started fast this season, with a 7-3 1Q ATS mark, which is the 2nd-best mark for any team in the NFL. The 1st quarter and 3rd quarter are the more scripted quarters, while the 2nd and 4th have a bit less of that.
Arizona is 15-5 ATS in 1st and 3rd quarters and 8-12 ATS in 2nd and 4th quarters this season.
➤A 49er effect? The Cardinals have lost 6 consecutive games outright in their game directly after facing the 49ers, including going 4-19 SU in that spot since 2012.
➤Can the Jaguars do it again. With Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville has lost five straight games outright directly after scoring 30+ pts, including 0-2 SU this season.
➤Since the start of 2022, Jaguars have played three games in MST/PST – they are 3-0 SU, averaging 31.3 PPG.
➤Jaguars have been on a rollercoaster.
Week 8: bye
Week 9: OT win in Vegas.
Week 10: Blow 19-pt lead entering 4th vs. Texans.
Week 11: Beat Chargers, 35-6.
Since 1990, teams to blow a 14+ pt lead entering the 4th quarter (lose the game), and then win their next game outright – completing the bounce back – are 7-24 SU and 9-20-2 ATS in their next game. The last cover came in 2016, 0-7-1 ATS since.
➤It isn’t just the fact that Trey McBride has more TD catches from Brissett (6) than Kyler Murray (5), it’s also the distance of those catches that make it stand out.
McBride has caught a TD pass of 10+ yds six times in his career – none of those have come from Kyler Murray.
McBride TD Passes of 10+ yds by QB
5 – Jacoby Brissett
1 – Josh Dobbs
0 – Kyler Murray
➤Geno Smith and the Raiders are listed as a favorite at home vs. the Browns. In his career, Geno is 12-20-2 ATS as a favorite. Based on how good the pass rush is on the other side can make that mark even worse.
Browns have a sack pct of 5.3% on defense. When Geno is a favorite and faces a defense with a sack pct of…
2% or higher: 8-15-2 ATS
3% or higher: 6-11-2 ATS
➤Here comes the inevitable drop off? Browns almost always play good teams hard at home, which they did last week vs. Ravens. But what happens after?
Since 2022, after Browns play a team with a 40%+ win pct at home and then play on the road, they are 2-9 SU and 1-11 ATS, losing 7 in a row both SU/ATS.
➤Shedeur Sanders will be the 42nd different starting QB the Browns have had since returning to the NFL in 1999 — most in NFL over span.
Shedeur could be the 18th different QB to make his first career start in the regular season for the Browns since they returned to the NFL in 1999.
Those QBs are 0-17 SU — The last QB to win was Eric Zeier in 1995.
➤The Raiders and Browns have faced each other just five times dating back to 2015, Raiders are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in that span when facing Cleveland – the last Browns QB to beat the Raiders was Brian Hoyer against Derek Carr in 2014.
➤Under Kevin Stefanski, the Browns have played six total games in the MST or PST, playing in Vegas this week.
Cleveland is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in those games, failing to cover the spread by 6.7 PPG.
➤This is the 3rd game this season the Raiders will play on short prep time under Pete Carroll, Vegas is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS in those games, losing to the Broncos and Commanders.
Dating back to 2019, Pete Carroll’s teams are just 4-11-1 ATS playing on short rest, that is the worst mark of 72 coaches in that span.
➤Let’s put some perspective on what Myles Garrett has done lately, which has been absurd.
He has 11 sacks in his last four games played, which is tied with Aldon Smith and Richard Dent for most in a 4-game span.
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➤Kirk Cousins will get the start for the injured Michael Penix Jr. this week and for the foreseeable future.
Falcons are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in Kirk’s last six starts dating back to last season. In 8 starts against the Saints in Kirk’s career, he is 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS, and almost every one has been a battle. Since the start of 2020, Cousins is 0-4 ATS vs. New Orleans and 0-3 ATS in the Superdome.
➤The Falcons have never been able to produce a QB who covers the spread. Since 2003, Atlanta has had 13 QBs start a game for them; only two are above .500 ATS, and barely.
Best ATS Win Pct – Falcons QBs Since 2003
Michael Vick – 26-24-2 ATS
Marcus Mariota – 7-6 ATS
➤Saints are 1-9 against the 1st quarter spread this season, worst mark in the NFL. New Orleans has been outscored 82-19 in the ten 1st quarters.
➤Saints are coming off a bye week to face the Falcons at home this week.
Since the beginning of last season, New Orleans has played four games on any extended prep time and they are 0-4 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 10.5 PPG. That is the 2nd-most games with extended prep and no covers, behind the 49ers who are 0-5 ATS.
➤Falcons have now played b2b games that went into overtime. Since division realignment in 2002, teams to play b2b games in OT are 13-19 SU and 14-17-1 ATS.
When a teams defense is on the field for 65 plays or more after b2b OT games they are 8-17 SU since 2002.
➤The under has cashed in six straight Saints games. Since 2022, the under is 38-23 in all 61 Saints games, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind just the Texans.
➤All you are looking for is an edge. Saints were 1-8 SU entering their game vs. Panthers before the bye. NO won outright, moving to 2-8.
Since 2000, teams with a win pct less than 20%, coming off an outright win before a bye week, 19-29 SU (40%) after the bye. Doesn’t sound great, but a team with a win pct less than 20%, doubling that win pct is something
The Saints have the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL – their upcoming opponents have a combined win pct of 34.7%.
➤The Superdome has been a tough place for the Falcons. They’ve lost 3 straight outright. They haven’t won consecutive games in New Orleans since 2001-02. Atlanta is 6-16 SU in New Orleans since right before that streak started, in 2003.
➤Falcons pass defense just allowed Bryce Young to go nuts – 448 pass yds, 3 TDs and 20 passing first downs, allowing 6 red zone trips. Last week, Falcons were off an overtime game in Germany vs. Colts and lost to the Panthers, with their defense getting torched.
Sometimes that effect can linger. Teams who play on the road, a week after playing a road/neutral game, which was off an OT game, are 23-49 SU and 29-41-2 ATS since division realignment back in 2002.
➤Saints are off a bye week and playing at home this week. Home teams off of a bye week are 116-142-9 ATS (45%) dating back to 2011, including 43.6% ATS in November or later.
➤If the Falcons are trying to replace Drake London for a few weeks. Good luck.
In the last four games, Falcons QBs have had their struggles getting other WRs the ball aside from London.
Last four games…
Penix/Cousins targeting London: 22 rec on 31 targets
Penix/Cousins targeting Mooney: 6 rec on 21 targets
Penix/Cousins targeting all WR not London: 13 rec on 38 targets
Penix/Cousins targeting all WR not London/Mooney: 7 rec on 17 targets
➤Falcons will be the first team to return to play in the US without a bye week, after playing an overtime game overseas. The other five teams to play OT overseas had a bye week after.
➤When Atlanta’s opponent leads by 4 pts or more at any point in the game, the Falcons are 0-7 SU this season, including losing 9 in a row dating back to last year (1-13 SU in their last 14 games in this spot).
➤Eagles and Cowboys had their first meeting all the way back in Week 1, the first game of the regular season.
Philly is currently on a 3-game SU win streak against the Cowboys, their first 3-game SU win streak vs. Dallas since 2003-04. Philly hasn’t won four straight since a 6-game streak in 2000-02.
➤Road division games haven’t been the easiest for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. As a duo, they are 6-7 SU and 4-8-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 3.8 PPG.
➤Dak Prescott has excelled in his career against NFC East foes. He is now 31-13 ATS vs. the NFC East, covering the spread by 6.8 PPG. Since 2003, here are the most profitable QBs ATS vs. Division foes:
- Aaron Rodgers: 59-36 ATS (+$2,004)
- Dak Prescott: 31-13 ATS (+$1,621)
- Ben Roethlisberger: 54-38-3 ATS ($1,455)
Since the start of 2019, Dak has been an underdog vs. NFC East twice, both against Dallas on the road and both losses outright.
➤In Dak’s career as a starter, he has only been a home dog vs. NFC East twice in 23 total games – and none since 2017. Dak was a home dog to Kirk Cousins and Carson Wentz (1-1 SU/ATS).
Dak Prescott is 21-2 SU and 17-6 ATS at home vs. the NFC East in his career. Dak has won 18 consecutive home games outright vs. the NFC East, dating back to 2017 – his only home losses vs. NFC East is to Carson Wentz and Eli Manning.
When an NFC East team made the playoffs the year prior, they are 0-9 SU when facing Dak Prescott in Dallas, losing by 19.6 PPG.
➤Cowboys have the Chiefs on deck next week. Since 2020, teams with KC on the horizon are 64-40-1 ATS, covering the spread by over 2 PPG.
➤Since the start of 2023, six teams have come off short rest to face Nick Sirianni’s Eagles. Philly didn’t win any of those six games by more than one possession, with Philly actually 0-2 SU in that spot in 2025, facing the Giants and Broncos.
➤Eagles wear their Kelly Green jerseys this week. Since bringing them back in 2023, Philly is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS:
October 22, 2023: Eagles 31, Dolphins 17
November 26, 2023: Eagles 37, Bills 34 (OT)
November 3, 2024: Eagles 28, Jaguars 23
December 29, 2024: Eagles 41, Cowboys 7
October 26, 2025: Eagles 38, Giants 20
➤A sense of normality for Dallas. They are coming off b2b Monday Night Football games. Now, they have b2b games on a Thursday coming up – just an odd schedule.
Week 9: MNF
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: MNF
Week 12: Sunday game
Week 13: Thanksgiving
Week 14: TNF
Last 20 years, we’ve only seen five teams play b2b games not on a Sunday, then play on a Sunday, and then have b2b games not on a Sunday on deck. Those teams went 5-0 SU on the normal Sunday game, winning by 11.2 PPG.
Cowboys are the first team in NFL history to play three straight 14+ win teams from the previous season – and they actually play four straight: PHI, KC, DET, MIN
➤In 5 road games this season, Eagles are 4-1 against the 1st quarter spread. Last year, Eagles were 2-6 1Q ATS on the road and between 2021 and 2024, Philly went 14-22 1Q ATS away from the Linc on the road.
➤Such an odd spot. Since 2018, Cowboys have faced the Eagles on short rest three times. They are 3-0 SU/ATS in those games. This season, two teams have faced the Eagles on short rest – Broncos and Giants – they went 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Eagles.
➤Breaking news: Lane Johnson is vital to the Eagles offense. Last decade, Philly is 96-41-1 SU when Lane starts and 12-23 SU when he doesn’t.
Since 2013, including the playoffs, Eagles are 120-62-1 SU when Lane plays and 15-24 SU when he doesn’t.
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➤Matthew Stafford stays the NFL MVP favorite entering Week 12. He has 27 pass TD and 2 INT through ten games. Only other QB in history with 27+ pass TD and 2 INT or fewer through ten games was Patrick Mahomes in 2020.
➤Since 2021, Baker Mayfield has made 13 starts at night in primetime. His teams are 2-11 SU and 4-9 ATS in those matchups.
ATS, that is ranked 79th of 82 QBs in that span, behind Tom Brady and Russell Wilson.
SU, that is ranked 81st of 82 QBs, behind only Daniel Jones (1-11 SU).
➤As above a FG underdog at night, Baker is 1-8 SU, including 0-8 SU during the regular season – Baker’s only win came against the Steelers with Cleveland in the playoffs in 2020-21.
The combo of Baker Mayfield and Todd Bowles has been tough at night – just 2-8 SU. WIthout Baker, Bowles is 8-8 SU in night games.
➤Rams are coming off a divisional battle against the Seahawks last week. Most head coaches would see a let down potentially week after. Not Rams. Under McVay, they are 34-17 SU and 30-17-4 ATS week after facing an NFC West opponent.
After facing Seattle, McVay’s Rams are 11-5 SU and 9-6-1 ATS. Also, good results on potential flat spot.
➤Brutal stretch for the Bucs who were underdogs in Buffalo last week, now dogs again on the road in the Rams.
Teams who are above .500 SU, who had to face an opponent on the road with a win pct of 66% or higher and then do it again, in the 2nd game they are 37-56 SU (40%) last 20 years (52% ATS). Bucs are 2nd team this season in that spot with 49ers in Week 6 in the Bucs, a game SF lost 30-19.
This is the first time Todd Bowles will coach consecutive road games vs. teams above .500 SU on the season.
Baker has stared 8 games on road trip with the Bucs (2nd game or later on road), TB has scored 20+ pts in all 8 games (avg 29.4 PPG).
➤Baker has faced Sean McVay just once, as a starter for the Browns in 2019 – it was one of Baker worst career games. Under 200 yds passing, 50% completion pct on 36 attempts, 38.5% pass success rate, 64 passer rating.
➤As a head coach, Todd Bowles has faced 28 opponents who entered the season with a win total above 9 (Rams closed 9.5) – he is 9-18-1 ATS, including 2-7 SU/ATS as an underdog.
➤The injuries have caught up to Tampa. Bucs were 16-8 ATS as underdogs with Baker Mayfield, covering the spread by 5.6 PPG before facing the Lions in Week 7.
Bucs have now lost two in a row SU/ATS as underdogs, losing by double-digits in both. In 26 starts as a dog for Tampa, Baker is 23-3 in a 6-pt teaser.
Against the Lions in Week 7 on Sunday Night Football, Baker threw just one TD pass – he threw 2+ TD passes at night in 8 straight games prior to that loss.
➤When Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are off of a loss as a duo, they are now 13-5 ATS in their next game after last week.
In his career, Baker is 17-8 ATS when listed as an underdog off of a SU loss, including 12-4 ATS in this spot in the last five seasons (since 2021).
➤For the first time in two years, the Carolina Panthers play in primetime at night – this time against the 49ers.
Since Nov. 9, 2023, every team in the NFL has played at least one game in primetime at night – the Panthers though have played the fewest amount, at just that one game – 2nd-fewest? Titans and Colts at two.
Carolina is over .500 this late into the season for first time since 2018.
➤This will be Bryce Young’s third start in primetime at night as the starter for the Panthers.
In the two starts, Carolina has scored a total of 30 points, losing both outright. With a Panthers loss outright, Bryce would join these QBs 0-3 SU or worse in primetime since 2023:
Daniel Jones: 0-6 SU
Zack Wilson: 0-3 SU
Overall, Bryce Young has started seven career games in either the 4p ET or night game window as starter of the Panthers – Carolina is 0-7 SU in those games, losing by 6.4 PPG.
➤Since Christmas of 2023, the 49ers are 1-15 against the spread after an outright win, the worst mark of any team in the NFL. In that span, they are failing to cover the spread by 7.7 PPG.
Off of a SU win, playing at home in San Francisco, the 49ers have lost 12 consecutive games ATS, with their last cover coming in October of 2023.
➤49ers are on extended prep time before facing the Panthers this week, with the game being on Monday Night Football.
San Francisco has lost 9 consecutive games ATS on extended prep, dating back to December of 2023. In those 9 games, they are also 3-6 SU, including losing 3 straight outright.
➤The Panthers and Bryce Young just have a bad history in the first half.
Carolina is 3-8 1H ATS this season, worst mark in the NFL.
Bryce Young is 13-25 1H ATS as a starter, worst mark in the NFL
➤What a terrible performance by the pass defense from the 49ers last week, allowing Jacoby Brissett to go 47-57 passing for 452 yards, including taking no sacks on the day.
Since 1990, teams after recording no sacks and allowing 400+ pass yds, are 31-19-1 ATS – a bounce back in store for SF’s defense even with the injuries.
➤As a 6+ point favorite in night games Kyle Shanahan is 9-4 SU, but just 4-9 ATS and since Christmas of 2023, they are 0-3 ATS in this spot.
On the other side, this is the third night game for the 49ers this season and they are 2-0 SU/ATS, beating both the Rams and Falcons.
➤The Panthers are up and coming. No playoffs last year, but 6-5 SU this season through 11 games.
Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 27-16 ATS vs. up and coming teams – teams who didn’t make playoffs year prior, but have a win pct of 45% or better, including 17-9 ATS when that games is at home.
➤Bryce Young is off a performance of a lifetime for him. 448 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, a +14.9 total EPA and 20 passing first downs.
Since 2018, Panthers are 6-15 SU and 5-16 ATS the week after scoring 30+ pts, including 2-13 SU/ATS in their last 15 games in that spot.
➤Another road test for Carolina. They have now won and covered three straight road games, beating the Falcons, Packers and Jets. Prior to this stretch, Carolina was 3-19 SU in their previous 22 road games.
➤Comeback Cats. When trailing by more than one possession at any point, Panthers are now 2-2 SU in their last four games. They were 0-65 SU prior to that.
➤ The 49ers are 6-5 ATS this season through 11 games – 5-2 ATS on the road and 1-3 ATS at home, which has been a trend for them lately.
Since the start of 2023, SF is 8-15 ATS at home, the least profitable mark ATS for any team in the NFL. On the road, they are 12-12 ATS, right in the middle of the pack.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Primetime unders are back to their shenanigans. 21-16-1 this season so far.
Matches: HOU/BUF, TB/LAR, SF/CAR
System: Patriots are way too hot. This system says to go the other way.
Matches: NE
System: If you want to lay big numbers, this one is for you.
Matches: SEA, DET
System: Low total. No wind. Take the over.
Matches: CLE/LVR
System: Unders in division games when the total is a bit higher.
Matches: PHI/DAL
