The Action PRO touchdown tool popped with a Steelers vs. Browns edge better than 3.5% — that means it's a green light for a touchdown pick on Thursday Night Football.
The Week 12 best bet is +1100, and shopping around is key.
Pittsburgh is a road favorite, with an over/under around 37. Touchdown odds really hadn't revealed an edge through PRO Projections, until the latest update in pricing and forecast.
Let's check out where our expert TD tool shows value.
NFL Touchdown Picks for Thursday Night Football: Steelers vs. Browns Predictions
Let's say a player is +300 to score a touchdown. You can plug that price into our odds converter to get an implied probability of what the market bet, which is 25%. If Action PRO models expect that same player to score 0.35 touchdowns (35%), it'd be a 10% edge in our favor.
The general rule of thumb is if only tailing projections, we recommend taking at least a 3.5% edge or higher. For Thursday Night Football, one touchdown pick makes the cut!
The pick to click tonight is