Monday NFL Props: This Najee Harris Over Is Expert’s Favorite Pick For Steelers-Browns
Joe Sargent/Getty Images. Pictured: Steelers RB Najee Harris
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, reveals his favorite NFL player prop pick for Steelers-Browns on Monday Night Football. He has a 518-414-10 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
NFL Props: Steelers-Browns
Najee Harris Over 17.5 Rush Attempts
The Pittsburgh Steelers can keep their playoff hopes alive with a win over the Cleveland Browns tonight, so I expect them to lean heavily on their first-round pick Najee Harris here.
I'm projecting Pittsburgh to have around 25 rush attempts on Monday Night Football, with Harris getting approximately 80% of them. The most likely outcome tonight is for Harris to get 19 rush attempts, and here is the breakdown of my projected odds for this market:
| Rush Attempts | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 16.5 | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| 17.5 | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 18.5 | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| 19.5 | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| 20.5 | 34.1% | 65.9% |
Given my projections, I would bet this up to -155.
Pick: Over 17.5 Rush Attempts (-135) at DraftKings
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series. Follow Sean in the Action app to see his top player prop bets every week, including at least one prop pick for each primetime NFL showdown.
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