Thursday Night Football in Week 15 features an NFC South showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
- For more Thursday Night Football coverage, check out our Falcons vs. Buccaneers preview, which includes two picks for TNF.
For my top Falcons vs. Buccaneers NFL PrizePicks and Underdog plays, I’m highlighting Rachaad White, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson.
Rachaad White
More Than 16.5 Rushing Yards
As we identified weeks ago, Rachaad White has a clear role in this Bucs offense, and that has remained true even with the return of Bucky Irving. White has averaged nine rush attempts per game, picking up yards at a 4.2 per carry rate.
White's efficiency has led him to average 36.5 yards per game.
Tonight, he faces an Atlanta defense that ranks 24th in yards per rush allowed. With his efficiency expected to be sustained tonight, he may only need a handful of carries to surpass this total once again.
Kyle Pitts
Less Than Than 5.5 Receptions
Next, we switch sides and focus on the Falcons' passing attack.
Atlanta's offense has become riddled with injuries as Kirk Cousins has been under center, and Drake London is set to miss another game.
London's absence has made Pitts the top target in the offense, as we've seen him garner 18 receptions over the past two weeks. To Pitts' credit, he's hauled in 13 of those targets.
However, with him being the main weapon in the passing attack, we should expect Tampa Bay to make someone else beat them. The Bucs' secondary has been nothing to write home about this season, but they are slightly above average against tight ends.
Fade Pitts tonight as this mark is much closer to his ceiling rather than his median.
Bijan Robinson
Less Than Than 4.5 Receptions
Lastly, we are continuing to fade Atlanta's passing attack by targeting Bijan Robinson.
In the season opener, Robinson torched the Bucs for 100 yards through the air, but with his yardage total set around 60 yards fewer than what he totaled in that performance, we should not expect him to replicate that success.
Tampa Bay is vulnerable to opposing running backs through the air, but we've seen Robinson's role in the passing game dwindle as the season has gone along. Overall, Robinson has one under this total in seven of 13 games this season, including five of his last seven.
Robinson has also failed to surpass this total in three of the four games Cousins has started this season.
