This NFL season continues to be one of the most challenging years for betting. Favorites have gone 156-66 (71%) straight-up (SU) this year, the most profitable season since 2009. It’s also the fourth-least profitable season for underdogs in NFL history. Teams getting over 60% of spread bets have gone 83-63-3 (57%) against the spread (ATS).
According to Action Network's Evan Abrams, home underdogs are just 35-48-3 (42%) ATS, which would be the second-least profitable season since 1990. Meanwhile, road favorites went 7-0 SU last week and are 34-8 SU (81%) since Week 9.
In this year of the chalk in the NFL, it’s been difficult to adjust. In this article, I’m focusing primarily on totals, which I believe offer the most value on this slate. With playoffs right around the corner and teams jockeying for positioning, let’s dive into the Week 16 card.
NFL Week 16 Predictions
| Category |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Saturday Games |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 16 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
Broncos vs. Chargers
The Denver Broncos can clinch a playoff spot with a win on Thursday night. After entering the season with a projected win total of 5.5 games and a whopping $87.5 million in dead cap money, Sean Payton’s young roster has exceeded all expectations. This divisional matchup also carries significant weight for the Chargers – they can clinch a playoff spot with a win as long as the Dolphins and Colts lose on Sunday.
The Chargers offense has cratered since running back J.K. Dobbins landed on IR – they rank 30th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate since Week 13. That’s despite two of their opponents ranking below average in defensive EPA. On Thursday, they face the Broncos, who have the best defense in the league by EPA and third-best by weighted DVOA.
Last week, the Buccaneers blitzed Justin Herbert on 63.9% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate he’s seen in a game in his career. While boasting one of the best young tackle tandems in the league, the Chargers’ interior offensive line has struggled mightily in pass protection this year, and Herbert is playing through multiple lower body ailments. With the fifth-highest blitz rate this season, expect the Broncos to send aggressive pressure up the A and B gaps.
All-world cornerback Patrick Surtain II limped off the field towards the end of Sunday’s game, but he’s expected to play, while Riley Moss was back at practice after missing the last two games. With Kris Abrams-Draine playing well in his first career start on Sunday, the Broncos arguably have the best group of cornerbacks in the league to match up with a limited group of Chargers pass-catchers.
Meanwhile, the Broncos’ 31-point outing on Sunday did not reflect their offensive production. Denver posted a 35% offensive success rate in the game, which would rank dead last in the league this season. The Broncos’ nonexistent run game (29th in DVOA) has resulted in a one-dimensional offense, and Jaleel McLaughlin, the team’s most dynamic runner, is in danger of missing this game on the short week.
Bo Nix is coming off arguably his worst game of the season with three interceptions against the Colts. He’s done a good job of keeping the turnovers in check for most of the year, but Jesse Minter’s defense still ranks seventh against the pass by DVOA and should be in line for a bounce-back performance. Everything points to the under being the play on Thursday Night Football.
Verdict: Bet Under 42.5
Saturday NFL Games
Texans vs. Chiefs
The major storyline for this game will be the availability of Patrick Mahomes after he suffered a mild high ankle sprain on Sunday. According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, the Chiefs have a 64% chance to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they’ll be more concerned with ensuring Mahomes is healthy for the postseason.
Even without Mahomes, I’d have a hard time backing the Texans as a road favorite here. Houston won on Sunday despite posting less than 200 yards of offense and just 12 first downs. I expected a more cohesive offense coming off the bye week, but the team’s struggles persisted as they rank dead last in early down success rate this season.
It’s been a challenging season for C.J. Stroud, whose sophomore slump has continued – he ranks 28th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE, behind the likes of Daniel Jones and Jameis Winston. Pass protection has been a consistent issue as Stroud has been pressured on 26.5% of dropbacks, the fourth-highest of qualified quarterbacks. Expect Steve Spagnuolo’s defense to bring the heat consistently here.
I’ll wait to make an official play on this game until we have more clarity on Mahomes’ availability. Still, I’ll endorse a fade of the Texans' offense with how underwhelming they’ve continued to be all year.
Verdict: Lean Texans Team Total Under 20.5
Steelers vs. Ravens
The Ravens’ pass defense has been much maligned this year, but it’s improved considerably over the last few weeks. Minor tweaks like Marlon Humphrey becoming a full-time slot player and the struggling Marcus Williams being benched for Ar’Darius Washington can make a massive difference for this group. The Ravens will also have Michael Pierce active for this game, who elevates the run defense from a great unit to arguably the league’s best.
Schematic improvements have also come through the introduction of Dean Pees as a senior advisor. After ranking 27th in defensive EPA/play over the first ten weeks of the season, the Ravens rank fifth since Week 11. “They’re about as different as you can get defensively over the course of a month,” Tomlin said.
Mistakes plagued the Ravens in losing to the Steelers earlier this year, including two fumbles in their own territory and two missed field goals. I expect a sharper effort early on, especially with Pittsburgh possibly missing its best player, T.J. Watt, after suffering an ankle injury on Sunday. The Steelers have been conservative in their approach with injuries this season, so his status bears monitoring.
The gap at quarterback in this game is enormous as Lamar Jackson leads the NFL in EPA+CPOE, and Russell Wilson ranks 13th. Baltimore’s offense has been historically elite this season by DVOA, and Jalen Hurts pieced up the Steelers’ defense on Sunday after he entered the game amid a passing slump. The expected return of George Pickens will be critical for Pittsburgh as he’s been their only receiver who can separate downfield this season.
Lamar Jackson has gone 57-36-2 ATS (61%) in the first half in his career, the best mark of any quarterback over the last 20 years. The Mike Tomlin underdog trends will lead many to back the Steelers in this spot, but the Ravens have had ample time to prepare for this matchup after a bye week preceded a beatdown of the Giants. I’m backing the home favorite here.
Verdict: Bet Ravens 1H -3.5
Passes
Titans vs. Colts
The Titans have pulled the plug on the Will Levis experiment entering Week 16, and first-year head coach Brian Callahan will be looking for his franchise quarterback this spring. First, Tennessee will finish out the season with Mason Rudolph, who rates as a considerable upgrade over Levis this season. Rudolph ranks 21st in EPA+CPOE, while Levis ranks 35th out of 42 qualified quarterbacks.
Anthony Richardson is 42nd out of that 42-quarterback sample, and while the upside remains tantalizing, his weaknesses have been on full display as of late. In the loss to the Broncos, he completed just 44.7% of his passes and averaged just 4.5 yards per attempt while finishing with two interceptions and a 47.7 PFF passing grade.
The Colts still have a narrow path to make the playoffs, but it starts with winning out, and the Titans will be looking to play spoiler here. At first glance, I don’t have much interest in a side or total.
Verdict: Pass
Giants vs. Falcons
The Michael Penix Jr. era will begin in Atlanta on Sunday, and the Falcons have given him a beautiful runway to start his career against the Giants pass defense that ranks 29th in DVOA. With Kirk Cousins’ mobility completely sapped and his turnovers stacking up – he has one touchdown to nine interceptions over his last five games – it was only a matter of time before the change was made.
I’d be hard-pressed to lay nearly ten points with a rookie quarterback making his debut, but I don’t see a strong path for the Giants to keep this game competitive, regardless of whether it’s Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito under center.
Verdict: Pass
Patriots vs. Bills
It’s difficult to have much faith in this Patriots coaching staff with how woeful their game management has been, and it’s a shame to watch this offense struggle to operate correctly, given how much promise Drake Maye has shown in his rookie season. This could be a spot for him to find some success, especially with the Bills dealing with multiple injuries in the secondary – Rasul Douglas, Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin, and Cole Bishop are all on the injury report.
The Bills offense is a freight train right now, however, and it should roll right through a Patriots defense ranked dead last in weighted DVOA. If you’re looking for a sneaky player prop here, Ray Davis could offer value depending on where the lines open – this could turn into a full-scale blowout, giving him extended run against a porous New England run defense.
Verdict: Pass
49ers vs. Dolphins
These teams have stark similarities. Both had their season effectively ended last week, with the 49ers losing to the Rams and the Dolphins losing to the Texans. Both run similar offensive schemes, with Mike McDaniel being a disciple of Kyle Shanahan. And both have failed to live up to expectations this season, sporting 6-8 records after dreams of Super Bowl aspirations.
It’s difficult to prognosticate which version of each outfit shows up to the field on Sunday, given the prospect of lost years, and this isn’t a game that offers much value at the outset with a narrow spread.
Verdict: Pass
Jaguars vs. Raiders
This game offers the most intrigue in how it affects the order for the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft. The Raiders currently hold the first overall pick at 2-12, while the Jaguars sit within striking distance at 3-11. Las Vegas would love to have its pick of the litter at the quarterback position. At the same time, Jacksonville desperately needs blue-chip defensive talent, ranking dead last in defensive EPA/play this season.
Aidan O’Connell could make his return for the Raiders this week, which would, at the very least, give me more confidence in player props for any Las Vegas pass-catchers against this abhorrent Jacksonville pass defense. I have no feel for the side or total here, though.
Verdict: Pass
Saints vs. Packers
The Saints nearly pulled off an unlikely comeback behind rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler after he replaced Jake Haener on Sunday, but that said more about the state of the Commanders. Klint Kubiak’s offense looked electric to start the season, but it’s a shell of itself due to injuries, and New Orleans is down to Kevin Austin Jr., Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Dante Pettis as its top wide receivers.
I’m not rushing to lay nearly two touchdowns with the Packers, but their offense should get everything it wants here. Expect Green Bay to lean heavily on Josh Jacobs, who should crush a Saints run defense ranked 30th by DVOA. Barring untimely turnovers by Jordan Love, who has been mostly mistake-free during Toyotathon, this should be academic for the Packers.
Verdict: Pass
Leans
Cardinals vs. Panthers
After some inspiring play from Bryce Young recently, he fell flat on his face against the Cowboys in a game where the Panthers were favored for the first time in over two years. Go figure. Young was pressured on 40.5% of his dropbacks per PFF as Carolina struggled to contain the Dallas pass rush. Luckily, this week’s matchup should be much easier as Arizona ranks 28th in pressure rate.
One of the only defenses worse than the Cardinals in the pressure department is the Panthers, who rank dead last with a 15.3% pressure rate. Kyler Murray has been a drastically different quarterback from a clean pocket this year. He’s thrown 12 touchdowns to just three interceptions with an 86 PFF passing grade when kept clean compared to three touchdowns, five interceptions, and a 48.2 PFF passing grade when under pressure.
Arizona’s run game should also do whatever it wants in this game. Carolina ranks dead last in adjusted line yards, while Arizona ranks third in adjusted yards before contact per attempt. James Conner should have plenty of open rushing lanes to keep the offense ahead of the sticks and create plenty of scoring opportunities.
While this might be the shortest quarterback matchup of all time – both Murray and Young stand 5’10” – both quarterbacks stand to find success this week in matchups against woeful pass rush units. Arizona should be able to name its number offensively, while Carolina’s recent improvement should show up more often in a bounce-back effort.
Verdict: Lean Over 46.5 Points
Rams vs. Jets
Winners of four of their last five games, the Rams are surging and are in complete control of their playoff destiny. The Jets, meanwhile, have been one of the league’s biggest disappointments, although they are coming off their first win in over a month. Aaron Rodgers has quietly been playing solid football lately, ranking 10th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in adjusted EPA/play over the past month.
Rodgers has a strong chance to continue that solid play against one of the league’s worst pass defenses as the Rams rank outside the top 20 in pass defense DVOA, EPA, and success rate. Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson should have plenty of success against a secondary that could be without cornerback Decobie Durant for the second straight week.
The more significant concern for the Jets stems from a pass defense that ranks 29th in EPA/play allowed since Week 9. With D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II, and Brandin Echols on the injury report, the Jets could be shorthanded at cornerback against Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. They will need all hands on deck to handle the Rams' potent offense, and this game has shootout potential.
Verdict: Lean Over 46.5 Points
Lions vs. Bears
Here’s the updated list of the Lions' defensive players on injured reserve: DT Alim McNeil, DT Kyle Peko, DT Mekhi Wingo, ED Aidan Hutchinson, ED Marcus Davenport, ED John Cominsky, LB Alex Anzalone, LB Derrick Barnes, LB Malcolm Rodriguez, LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, CB Carlton Davis, CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB Khalil Dorsey, and S Ifeatu Melifonwu.
You could form a functional starting 11 on defense with that group of players. Luckily, the Lions still boast one of the best offenses in the NFL, and that may be enough to win and cover against this haphazard Bears team, especially with Chicago on a short week. The Bears have allowed 30+ points in both games post-Matt Eberflus, getting shredded by Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold in the process.
I’ll be interested to see where Jahmyr Gibbs’ props land in this game with David Montgomery now out for the rest of the season. Chicago ranks 31st in run defense DVOA, and Gibbs finished with 87 yards on just nine carries against them earlier this season. The Lions lead the NFL with 32.8 points per game this season, and their offense should be in fine form on Sunday, regardless of the defensive injuries.
Verdict: Lean Lions Over 27.5 Points
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
The Buccaneers offense has been on fire recently, posting 26+ points in four straight games, including a 40-point explosion against the Chargers on Sunday. Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his career under offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who should be on the shortlist for some head coach openings this coming offseason.
The Cowboys’ defense had a resurgent performance against the Panthers last week, but I’m not betting on that carrying over here. Dallas ranks 24th in defensive DVOA and 28th against the run, so we should see some big-time performances from Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. Mike Evans could also be poised for a big game against a Cowboys secondary that's missing Trevon Diggs as he chases his 11th straight season with 1,000+ receiving yards.
If I had to make a play on this game, I’d bet on the Buccaneers' offense staying in the flames with a bet on their team total. However, I anticipate some value in the player props markets, so I’m holding off for now.
Verdict: Lean Buccaneers Team Total Over 26.5
NFL Week 16 Picks
Browns vs. Bengals
The Browns have opted to start Dorian Thompson-Robinson this week, which means they’ve entirely thrown in the towel on this season. Jameis Winston had issues with interceptions, but DTR is a significant downgrade. Across 146 career pass attempts, he’s thrown one touchdown and seven interceptions. He’s averaged 3.7 yards per attempt in his career – that’s the lowest mark in the Super Bowl era of all quarterbacks with 125+ pass attempts.
The Bengals’ defense has been abysmal for much of the season, ranking 29th in weighted DVOA, but it’s hard to expect DTR to succeed in this matchup. Expect a run-heavy approach for Cleveland, with Jerome Ford poised to shoulder a significant workload for the remainder of the season after Nick Chubb suffered a broken foot. Still, the Browns rank just 28th in rushing DVOA.
Joe Burrow has been on a torrid run lately, ranking fourth in EPA+CPOE, but Cleveland’s defense can slow him down. The Bengals mustered just a 31% offensive success rate in these teams’ prior matchup, and the Browns will get consistent pressure – they rank second in pass-rush win rate while Cincinnati ranks 29th in pass-block win rate.
The Bengals are coming off a game against the Titans that ended with a whopping 64 points scored, but ten total turnovers led to consistent short fields for both teams. Expect a much tamer scoring environment in this one, with the under offering value given Thompson-Robinson leading to far less offensive production on the Cleveland side.
Verdict: Bet Under 47 Points
Eagles vs. Commanders
When these teams met last month, it wasn’t particularly close. The Commanders struck first with a quick touchdown, but the Eagles had two missed field goals in the first half before taking over after halftime. Philadelphia’s run game proved too much for Washington to overcome, as the Eagles generated 228 rushing yards on an elite 5.7 YPC clip, and they outgained the Commanders by nearly 200 yards overall.
There’s no reason to expect the Commanders to be able to slow down the Eagles' run game in this rematch. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Eagles generate 3.20 yards before contact on average, the most in the NFL, and the Commanders allow 2.57 yards before contact, also the most in the NFL. Expect Saquon Barkley to dominate once again in this matchup.
Washington’s offense has also faltered as the season has gone on. After setting the league ablaze early, ranking first in EPA/play over the first seven weeks, the Commanders rank just 13th in EPA/play since Week 8. Without Noah Brown and Zach Ertz, two of his most reliable pass-catchers, this will be a brutal game for Jayden Daniels against the Eagles’ defense that paces the NFL in EPA/play and success rate since Week 6.
The Eagles can clinch the division with a win on Sunday, and I expect them to make this a business trip as they lean on their elite run game and lights-out defense to squash this upstart Commanders team.
Verdict: Bet Eagles -3 (-120 or better)
Vikings vs. Seahawks
Sunday night’s loss to the Packers was undeniably disappointing for the Seahawks, and their putrid offensive line has become a mitigating factor for the entire team’s success. According to PFF, Geno Smith was pressured on 43.5% of his dropbacks before leaving the game with an injury. Right guard Sataoa Laumea was credited with allowing ten pressures on 44 pass-blocking snaps.
The Seahawks may be without starting center Olu Oluwatimi this week, which would be problematic after prior starting center Connor Williams suddenly retired midseason. If he can’t go, rookie UDFA Jalen Sundell could make his first career start.
All of this is remarkably problematic against a Brian Flores defense with elite ranks in pass-rush win rate (third), blitz rate (first), and pressure rate (sixth), especially with Smith dealing with a knee injury. Good luck, Geno!
The Seahawks defense has been much improved over the second half of the season, and after Josh Jacobs excelled in the first half on Sunday, he was held to 1.75 YPC and zero first downs thanks to sharp halftime adjustments from Mike Macdonald. Since Week 10, Seattle ranks fourth in defensive EPA/play, one spot ahead of Minnesota.
Weather could significantly impact this game, with a 90% chance of rain and 10+ mph winds in the early forecast. The Vikings’ offense has been humming lately, but they’ve taken advantage of some woeful defenses with poor pass-rush units in the Bears (twice), Cardinals, and Falcons over the last month. Seattle poses a more significant challenge, and the under looks like a strong play here.
Verdict: Bet Under 42.5 Points
