In many ways, this has been the season of the Lions.
Detroit sits atop the NFC at 12-2, the second-best record in the league. At +177, the Lions are still lapping the field in point differential, a full field goal per game better than any other team.
The Lions started the season with an overtime Sunday night win over the Rams, lost to Tampa Bay the next week, then didn't lose again until this past Sunday against the Bills.
Detroit has already scored 42, 42, 47, 52 and 52 points in games this season. The Lions have amassed wins by 38, 38 and 46 points. Detroit also ranks near the top of the league in most of the advanced metrics and Dan Campbell has been aggressive at every turn.
By any real measure, the Lions have been the class of the NFL in 2024 after coming oh-so-close to the Super Bowl a season ago.
Detroit even became a Super Bowl favorite for the first time in the modern era — until Sunday.
Lions Injuries Pile Up Against Bills
What was billed as a possible Super Bowl preview against Buffalo instead turned into a Lions disaster, not for the result as much as how things got there.
The result certainly wasn't great. The Bills won 48-42 in a game that wasn't actually that close. Buffalo's offense was rolling early and scored touchdowns on each of its first three drives. In fact, Detroit only forced one punt all game. MVP front-runner Josh Allen had another monster game with two touchdowns running and passing, and the Lions defense simply had no answers.
Detroit's offense got its numbers. Jared Goff finished six yards short of 500 with five passing touchdowns and Amon-Ra St. Brown had nearly 200 receiving yards. The Lions scored touchdowns on their final four possessions to make a push, but it was too little, too late.
The game finished with over 1,000 yards combined, both teams over 500, with 58 first downs and 12 trips into the red zone. But it was notable how the teams arrived there.
Buffalo's offense got everything it wanted. It finished with a 0.44 EPA per play, including 0.42 on 57 early downs, both rating in the 99th percentile. The Lions, by contrast, were a measly 0.01 EPA per play on 61 early downs, instead needing crazy outlier late-down plays to find production. The early down offense is much more predictive and over a bigger sample.
Detroit's defense had a horrific day, and the offense wasn't nearly good enough.
Any team can have an off day, but the problem for Detroit is why the defense was so bad.
Aidan Hutchinson is already out for the season. That's a huge loss as Detroit's best player was the early DPOY front runner and PFF's No. 1-rated edge rusher and defender with a 95-grade pass rush. That loss left the defense compromised, but Aaron Glenn's unit had held up thanks to smart scheming and excellent safety play from Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch.
Along the way, the Lions have been losing more and more defensive bodies — Alex Anzalone, Ifeatu Melifonwu, Marcus Davenport, Malcolm Rodriguez and a slew of other depth — but Sunday delivered what could be a fatal blow to this defense.
Stud defensive tackle Alim McNeill was lost for the season. He ranks top 10 among defensive tackles in PFF grade and is Detroit's biggest pass rush threat now that Hutchinson is out. Also gone is Carlton Davis, a top-20 PFF-graded corner and by far the best cover man on Detroit's roster.
McNeill and Davis are two of the top five defenders on this roster, and Davis may have been the most important. He was Detroit's big free agent acquisition, a Super Bowl champion corner. The Lions secondary is awfully thin without him. The best two corners are now Amik Robertson and rookie Terrion Arnold, graded 91 and 108, respectively, out of 115 corners at PFF.
The Lions also lost running back David Montgomery for the season with a knee injury, a brutal beat for prop bettors as Montgomery finished with 775 rushing yards and had a season-long prop of 775.5.
Montgomery was one-half of the league's most dynamic rushing attack, the thunder to Jahmyr Gibbs' lightning. Both guys have averaged 13 carries a game, and Montgomery has been outstanding as a receiver this season with a 74% Success Rate, the best on the team. He was also a huge short-yardage and goal-line threat.
Both Montgomery and Gibbs rank top 15 in PFF grade on the season, but part of Montgomery's value was keeping Gibbs' speedy legs fresh and fast.
The injuries are piling up for Detroit … and the pile is becoming a mountain.
How Detroit's Roster Can Handle Massive Injury Report
Early injuries compromised the depth, killing the next-man-up mindset, and Sunday was a death blow to three of the top-15 players on Detroit's roster. There's a chance Davis and Hutchinson could return late in a deep playoff run, but the Lions will have to get there first.
The depth is so now compromised that even one more key injury could doom this defense. How could the offense survive the loss of Gibbs or St. Brown? What if sophomore linebacker Jack Campbell or one of those star safeties goes down?
It's telling that even the loss of CB5 Khalil Dorsey seems notable from Sunday. He would have been CB4 with Davis out, so it's just the top three now. Dorsey was also Detroit's top kick returner on a unit that's been one of the best in the league — another small edge lost for Detroit.
Before the injuries this weekend, the Lions led my power ratings at just over +8, with the best offense in the league and a defense that ranked eighth. These injuries have dropped the defense to 18th and also took a chip off both the offense and special teams.
Detroit still ranks third in my power ratings, but has dropped almost a full field goal to around +5.3. For reference, the Lions have had three wins by a field goal since the start of November. That margin just got even thinner.
Obviously, plenty of NFL teams would kill to be third best and Detroit's dominant offensive line and elite, aggressive coaching still give the Lions a shot in any game.
But what looked like a Super Bowl front-runner now feels more like one of many contenders needing a shootout win with fewer paths to victory. This team now feels a bit more like the Packers, with an offense that can still win games, but a defense that can really only hope to hang around, make some big plays and try not to lose it.
This is no longer a Super Bowl-caliber defense.
Over the first 11 weeks of the season, the Lions defense ranked third in DVOA — hanging in tough, even without Hutchinson for a chunk of that. The defense has cratered to 25th over the past four weeks and will likely only get worse with McNeill and Davis now sidelined.
Detroit has faced a top-10 DVOA offense five times this season. The Lions are 3-2 in those games, but one of those wins was by three and another came in overtime, with the defense allowing 374 yards per game in those contests — and remember, the defense was healthier in those games.
Detroit plays (by far) the most man coverage in the league and ranks third in Success Rate. The Lions spent much of last season's postseason blitzing the opposition and trusting their secondary. That'll get significantly tougher with a rookie corner on an island and make life especially difficult on those great safeties.
So, What's Next for Detroit?
The Lions will face the Bears, 49ers and Vikings over the final three games. Chicago and San Francisco have packed it in for the year, which could set up a monster swing game against Minnesota in Week 18.
Win out, and the Lions will get the NFC 1-seed and a badly needed bye week. Lose that Vikings game, and the team could slip all the way to the 5-seed and hit the road for an immediate playoff game. The Lions also saw the Eagles and Vikings win big to move into a tie at 12-2.
Things are suddenly pretty tenuous in Detroit, which feels like last year's Bills — dominant much of the year, but simply too many injuries heading into the playoffs. The 2020 Chiefs also come to mind as they made it all the way to the Super Bowl before the offensive line and defensive injuries doomed them.
Per FTN, the Lions are down to just a 48% chance to be the NFC 1-seed and a 51% chance to make the NFC Championship Game.
That's still pretty good! It would be the envy of all except two or three teams in the league, but it's also much worse than things looked a week ago.
The Lions are down to a 27% chance to make the Super Bowl at FTN and a 14% chance to win it. Detroit is still priced at +500 to win the championship at FanDuel and just ahead of the Chiefs at most books. It's clear both of those teams are rapidly losing steam and there's just not much value at the number.
I wrote about the fading Chiefs a week ago, but they are fading further with Patrick Mahomes' ankle injury. Now is not the time to invest in Chiefs futures, and the window has also closed on Lions futures.
I still think there's some value on the Ravens at +850 (Caesars). We bet them at +1100 a week ago, but they have a pretty similar profile to Detroit now — an elite offense that can make up for a defense with some big question marks — and both could end up as 5-seeds with similar paths.
How Can Bettors Fade the Lions Moving Forward?
If Detroit does drop out of the 1-seed, that could mean value on the Eagles. However, Philadelphia is already priced accordingly — at the peak of its market value after a dominant win over the Steelers — and the Eagles still need losses from both the Lions and Vikings to control their destiny for the 1-seed.
Could the under-discussed Vikings have sneaky value?
Minnesota's path looks pretty interesting going forward. The Geno Smith injury leaves a softer Week 16 game, and the Vikings now control their destiny to the 1-seed.
Win out, and this team gets a bye and two home games in one of the league's loudest, biggest home-field-advantage stadiums. That would mean winning Week 18 in Detroit, but a loss there might not be so terrible either. That likely makes the Vikings a 5-seed, meaning a game against a blah NFC South team in the first round before a likely trip to Detroit and another shot at these vulnerable Lions in round two.
The Vikings might be the most direct way to fade the Lions at this point. Minnesota is +650 to win the NFC and +1300 to win the Super Bowl (BetMGM).
Ten of the past 11 Super Bowl champions have been listed with odds of +1200 or shorter to win it all heading into the preseason. If it's not the Lions or Chiefs anymore — and it sure doesn't appear to be the 49ers — maybe the right value is on one of the two remaining teams, the Bills (+425) and Ravens (+850).
Or, maybe this is one of those years where the top teams are vulnerable and leave the door cracked for a wild-card team to get hot for a Super Bowl run. Could that be the Vikings or Packers? Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers? A red-hot Rams offense?
The Eagles are the only real balanced threat in the NFC now, great on both offense and defense.
Detroit's defense is compromised. Minnesota's offense is inconsistent. The Packers, Rams and Bucs lack defensive chops. Philadelphia hasn't lost since its bye week and has the best defense in football. The Eagles are +240 to win the NFC at FanDuel, an implied 29%, showing value compared to their 37% chance at FTN.
If you're looking for more of a sleeper with longer odds, the Packers could fit the bill.
Green Bay is 10-4, but those four losses are to the Lions (twice), Vikings and Eagles. Those teams have six losses combined. The Packers offense just dismantled what had been an elite Seahawks defense, and Jordan Love can be the best quarterback in the NFC if he gets hot for a month.
The Packers are +700 to win the NFC (ESPN Bet), which is implied at 12.5%, showing some value compared to the odds at FTN of over 15%. Green Bay will likely hit the road for the playoffs, although it could wind up with a path that starts with a game against a beatable NFC South or West foe, then maybe the Lions, who the Packers almost beat at full strength a week ago.
Green Bay is +1400 to win the Super Bowl (Bet Rivers), so the Packers are a better NFC bet since that's effectively pricing them at 50-50 to win a Super Bowl, where they'd likely be an underdog upon arrival.
So, do you go with the favored Eagles in the NFC? Perhaps you prefer to take a longer shot on Minnesota or Green Bay? Maybe you'd rather leave the NFC altogether for an investment in the AFC like the Ravens?
The Lions are not dead, but they may be mortally wounded — and it's time to invest elsewhere.
