As the NFL Playoffs continue to develop, I've zeroed in on the two Sunday Divisional Round matchups.
Let's dive into my NFL Divisional Round picks — which include a moneyline prediction, player props, same-game parlays and a spread pick — for Texans vs Patriots and Rams vs Bears on Sunday, January 18.
NFL Divisional Round Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
  | 8:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texans vs Patriots Moneyline Prediction; Drake Maye Props & Parlays
We have to start with the big injury news here — Nico Collins is out for Houston and Christian Gonzalez is in for New England.
That's a pretty big swing off the top, especially since New England ranks dead last against WR1s on the season. The Texans have a bottom-10 set of weapons without Collins (and that's being kind), and Gonzalez is New England's most important defender.
Even so, Houston, not New England, has been the significantly better team this season and I start with this game close to a pick'em.
Houston's defense is its calling card and is coming off a dominant, masterful Monday night performance against the Steelers. The Texans force opponents into a three-and-out (or better) an outlier 39% of the time, making teams look like the Raiders, who have the league's worst offense.
The Texans' defense begins with an elite pressure rate up front from Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, but the truth is that this is a relatively vanilla scheme.
Unlike aggressive defenses like Seattle or Denver, Houston basically plays one or two personnel groupings and doesn't offer many surprises — they just know their guys are better than yours until you prove otherwise.
That works against most teams, but it could offer a few areas for a great offense like New England to attack.
Houston has an elite pressure rate, but the Patriots rank third in EPA per play under pressure. Drake Maye can escape with his legs — we'll get back to that — and hit the big pass down the field.
New England also plays top-five most 21 personnel, making use of its dynamic duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, and Houston ranks just 13th in EPA per play against 21 personnel, a relative weakness.
The Texans also rank just 14th in explosive plays allowed, and that's a real concern here. New England leads the league in explosive play rate at 14%, about one every seven plays, and that includes top five rushing and No. 1 passing at almost 20%.
Aaron Rodgers wasn't able or willing to hold the ball long enough to create big plays against Houston, but Drake Maye was an MVP candidate for a reason and he can hurt these specific Houston weaknesses.
New England's defense may also hold its own.
The Patriots' defense is a totally different animal over the back half of the season than it was early. Over the first nine games, New England ranked top five in stopping the run by DVOA but in the bottom five against the pass. Over the final nine, the Patriots are league-average against the pass with a healthier secondary, but tumbled to 30th against the run.
That run defense got Milton Williams back last week, though, and Houston is not built to take advantage of a bad run defense, ranking just 30th by EPA on the season.
The Texans also play a ton of 11 personnel, where New England ranks top seven by EPA, and the Texans have been awful in the red zone this season and may not be able to take advantage of New England's league-worst red zone defense.
Add in a real home-field advantage against a Texas team used to playing indoors and there are real reasons for concern on Houston's behalf — but I still lean toward Houston at the number.
In the Divisional Round, it's typically a smart idea to fade the overpriced home team. Home favorites are 49-27 SU over the past couple of decades, but offer a 20% ROI on the road underdog moneyline, and underdogs are 21-32 SU against opponents this round that won over 75% of their regular season games, a 38% ROI on the moneyline.
Books are juicing the numbers for these home favorites with gaudy records, and though New England has some areas to attack, I still feel good about backing the better team, especially in a low-total game that should be close all the way.
This is my least confident game of the weekend, but I'll play Houston's moneyline at +150 (bet365).
I'm also looking to play a few props.
Drake Maye has played four games against a top-eight pass defense this season. He averages 228 yards and 1.3 passing TDs in those games. That's almost exactly what Houston's defense has allowed in six games against a top-10 passing attack: 229 yards and 1.3 TDs.
The Texans may be able to keep Maye out of the end zone, but he can hurt them with his legs. Maye ranked 6th in scramble EPA per dropback this season and Houston ranked second to last. The Texans are getting so much pressure that Maye will be forced to move, and their defense is vulnerable to a big scramble with so many pass rushers upfield.
Maye has run for at least 25 yards in half his games and 40+ yards in a third of them, and he just ran 10 times for 66 yards in the win over the Chargers, both season-high numbers.
I'll build a couple of Maye SGPs. Start with under 1.5 passing TDs and 25 rushing yards at +118 (FanDuel), then place a second bet on under 1.5 pass TDs and 60+ rushing yards at +569 (FanDuel).
New England may also be able to attack Houston with screens. The Patriots rank 6th in EPA per play on screens, while the Texans defense also ranks 31st there, another area where those aggressive pass rushers are getting attacked.
Rhamondre Stevenson has quietly become a weapon in the passing game for the Patriots, averaging 3.0 catches for 37.7 yards over his last six games. That includes 3+ catches in four of the six games and at least 22 yards in all of them, and Stevenson has racked up 61% of his season-long YAC in this stretch.
You'd think TreVeyon Henderson would be the receiving back to target, but he's down to just eight receiving snaps per game over his last five outings versus 22 for Stevenson.
Bet over 19.5 receiving yards for Rhamondre Stevenson (-110, BetRivers). He's hit that in six straight games and can do it in one play once he gets rolling.
We've seen the Texans hurt by explosive pass plays to RBs like Ashton Jenaty this year. Houston has allowed 36+ receiving yards to an RB seven times already, and Stevenson has games with 40, 55, and 75 receiving yards in this recent stretch.
Let's take the Rhamondre escalator: 40+ receiving yards at +400, 50+ at +675 (both at bet365), and all the way to 70+ at +1900 (DraftKings) — all numbers he just cashed Sunday night against the Chargers!
Pick: Texans Moneyline (+150, bet365)
Other Bets to Consider:
- Drake Maye SGP: Under 1.5 Passing TDs, 25+ Rushing Yards (+118, FanDuel)
- Drake Maye SGP: Under 1.5 Passing TDs, 60+ Rushing Yards (+569, FanDuel)
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110, BetRivers)
- Rhamondre Stevenson 40+ Receiving Yards (+400, bet365)
- Rhamondre Stevenson 50+ Receiving Yards (+675, bet365)
- Rhamondre Stevenson 70+ Receiving Yards (+1900, DraftKings)
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Rams vs Bears Spread Prediction
Chicago is still buzzing after that incredible Bears comeback against the Packers, but I've seen this movie before.
The NFL postseason graveyard is littered with teams that had exhilarating comebacks before collapsing the next game.
It's really hard to come off that adrenaline letdown after a "Super Bowl" type win, and it matters that the Bears offense did virtually nothing for a second straight game against the lowly Packers defense for the first three quarters.
It also matters that Chicago lost its starting left tackle in that one, who helped transform this line into one of the league's best, a line that now faces a ferocious defensive front.
The Bears also lost their only good linebacker, yet another loss for a flailing defense already short on bodies. Meanwhile, the Rams are getting healthy and should return G Kevin Dotson to bolster an already terrific offensive line.
The return of Dotson and the absence of T.J. Edwards only further bolster what was already a monster mismatch: Rams offense versus Bears defense. Chicago's defense is by far the weakest link in this game, and the Rams' offense should get anything it wants.
The number for Chicago is ghastly.
The Rams offense has an edge in Success Rate, ranking first versus 25th for Chicago's defense. The Rams also have an edge in explosives, third versus 22nd, along with rushing EPA at fourth versus 26th.
That last stat is especially important in a freezing Chicago game where the run game will be important — and where the Rams should run just fine, especially with Dotson back.
Chicago ranks bottom 10 against play-action. The Rams use more play-action than any offense. Chicago allows the third most middle-of-the-field attacks in the league.
The Rams exploded, attacking them over the back half of the season. The Bears allow the second-highest outside run rate and rank just 27th in EPA per play defending it. The Rams rank first, and Blake Corum has been especially explosive.
On top of all that, the Bears allow myriad explosive plays in the secondary, ranking seventh in most deep passes allowed and 27th in EPA per play. The Rams attack deep early and often, most in the league, and rank in the top five by EPA.
Sean McVay knows Dennis Allen's defenses. He's 6-2 lifetime against an Allen defense, averaging 29 PPG in those games, and that includes a memorable NFC Championship Game win.
The Rams are going to score.
The other side of the ball is more complicated.
LA's defense has faded hard, allowing 29 PPG in Week 13 through 17 before giving up 31 in that near-loss to Carolina last week. The Rams' passing defense has fallen apart, leaping from 19% in explosive passing plays allowed through 12 games to an awful 41% since, second worst in the league.
Chris Shula's defense missed Quentin Lake for much of that stretch and has him back now, but this defense is pretty predictable, ranking top three in most zone and light box defense and bottom three in blitz rate.
That makes LA ripe for the attacking for an offensive mind like Ben Johnson. Chicago leads the league in EPA against light boxes, and the Bears use play-action second most, another area in which the Rams are vulnerable.
Ben Johnson's offense has been especially good in the second half, so that could set up another comeback script for Chicago — or at least leave the backdoor open.
A lot will be on Caleb Williams. He clearly has the talent, but he's been far better against man defense and should see a ton of zone in this one, so that could make Chicago's offense volatile and unpredictable.
There are a couple of other key areas of uncertainty.
It looks very cold and wintry in Chicago, with temperatures in the teens and wind chills that could be below zero. You'll find all sorts of worrying stats for Sean McVay in Chicago, Matthew Stafford in the rain or snow, and so on, but the weather should impact both teams, and if it forces the run, there's reason to believe the Rams should run even better than the Bears.
Stafford's finger injury is also a concern. It's not his guiding finger and shouldn't be a problem, but it sure didn't look good throwing outside the numbers in Carolina, and the cold won't help there either.
If you're worried about the finger injury and the cold, you may just want to stay away.
I'm still investing in the Rams in what's a lopsided matchup on paper, though I'll play slightly less aggressively with the unknowns.
Start with Rams -3.5. Los Angeles covered that line in every win but one this season until last week.
But because Chicago has proven itself a backdoor threat, I mostly prefer to play Rams team totals.
Rams over 26.5 (-115, DraftKings) looks like a nice proxy for an LA moneyline. The Rams are 10-2 this season when they score 27 points and just 3-3 when they don't, and Chicago has allowed 27 points eight times, including all but one of its losses.
The Rams have at least 26 points in 13 of their 18 games, so over 26.5 looks good.
They've scored 33+ points 10 times already, including nine of their 13 wins (69%).
Let's play a Rams team total escalator, starting with over 33.5 points at +330 (bet365). LA has 41+ points three times this season, while the Bears have allowed that three times as well, so let's play 40+ Rams points at +625 in case this offense detonates (bet365).
Pick: Rams -3.5 (-120, FanDuel)
Other Bets to Consider:
- Rams Over 26.5 Points (-115, DraftKings)
- Rams Over 33.5 Points (+330, bet365)
- Rams 40+ Points (+625, bet365)
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Brandon's Divisional Round Saturday Betting Card
- Texans Moneyline (+150, bet365)
- Drake Maye SGP: Under 1.5 Passing TDs, 25+ Rushing Yards (+118, FanDuel)
- Drake Maye SGP: Under 1.5 Passing TDs, 60+ Rushing Yards (+569, FanDuel)
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110, BetRivers)
- Rhamondre Stevenson 40+ Receiving Yards (+400, bet365)
- Rhamondre Stevenson 50+ Receiving Yards (+675, bet365)
- Rhamondre Stevenson 70+ Receiving Yards (+1900, DraftKings)
- Rams -3.5 (-120, FanDuel)
- Rams Over 26.5 Points (-115, DraftKings)
- Rams Over 33.5 Points (+330, bet365)
- Rams 40+ Points (+625, bet365)
