We made it to the NFL playoffs.
Say goodbye to endless MVP debates and power rankings as the 14 teams remaining settle it on the field — and say hello to Super Bowl MVP.
We all know who usually wins Super Bowl MVP: the quarterback of the winning team, usually. Since 2010, 12 of the 16 Super Bowl MVP winners were simply the winning QB — three in every four!
If a quarterback doesn't win, it's usually someone they threw to — either on purpose (their own receiver) or by accident (someone on defense). In the four instances the MVP wasn't the winning QB, the award went to a wide receiver or a defender.
We saw three receivers win Super Bowl MVP between 2005 and 2009, but we haven't had a single running back win it since — prepare to be shocked — Denver's Terrell Davis, all the way back in 1998!
So how do we bet Super Bowl MVP now that books are finally posting odds?
First, we want to look for star quarterbacks with significantly different odds than their team winning the Super Bowl, since they can act as a proxy for a team Super Bowl win at boosted odds. Even if we're not betting on a QB, we should be focused on that same margin — because how often does that player need to win MVP in a team's Super Bowl win for an MVP bet to be an angle worth taking?
I've got four Super Bowl MVP picks worth making as the playoffs begin.
Super Bowl MVP Predictions, Odds
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Bo Nix +1300
I can't say before the season that I would've ever expected Bo Nix to be my first Super Bowl MVP bet!
In betting, you always have to play the number. I'm not a believer in Nix, but this is the wrong number.
Denver is the AFC 1-seed. That means the Broncos get one of the two coveted byes in the playoff field, perhaps more valuable than ever in a season filled with parity and unknown. After all, the best way to win a postseason game is to not have to play one at all.
Among the AFC's best teams all season, the Broncos feature a tenacious defense and a great winter home-field advantage, and they're just two home wins away from the Super Bowl.
The Broncos are the favorites to come out of the AFC and the third favorite to win the Super Bowl at a consensus +650, an implied 13.3%. That's really not that high for a 1-seed that's two wins away.
If the Broncos were simply 50/50 to win each remaining game, they'd be 12.5% to win it all, or +700. They'd likely be Super Bowl underdogs, but should be favored at home before that.
Defense, home field, and just enough offense in wintery conditions? We've seen that formula work for Denver and any number of other champions before.
But Nix's price is key.
Look around the market, and you'll find most quarterbacks are priced with relatively similar Super Bowl MVP odds as their team's title chances. Most of them would need to win MVP around 75% of the time the team wins a championship to be a good bet. This makes sense — remember, 75% of the last 16 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks.
Matthew Stafford, Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, Justin Herbert — they're all about 75% implied to win MVP in their teams' Super Bowl wins. Drake Maye and Trevor Lawrence are even higher at 79 and 84%, making them poor bets. Josh Allen is totally unbettable at +1200 to win MVP, with Buffalo at +1100.
So what about Nix?
He's priced at just +1300 to win MVP (Fanatics), just 7.1% implied. Compare that to Denver's +650 Super Bowl odds, and Nix only needs to Super Bowl MVP in 54% of all Denver titles to have value.
Think about a typical Broncos game. Who would win MVP?
Nix doesn't feel like an MVP, but he's still Denver's most valuable player most of the time. Defense is a team effort, unless there's a huge pick-6 or touchdown-scoring play. There's no a star RB or receiver racking up stats either.
By default, that makes the QB most important. As always.
If you go through Denver's 14 wins this season and pick an MVP, Nix would be the MVP in at least seven of them, probably a couple more.
Whether you believe in Nix or not is irrelevant. If the Broncos win the Super Bowl, you better believe their quarterback will have to make a few big throws. Nix is also a threat to big plays with his legs, maybe even run one in.
Eli Manning won Super Bowl MVP. So did Joe Flacco. So did Nick Foles.
You don't have to be the best QB in the NFL to win Super Bowl MVP. Sometimes you just have to be the quarterback on the winning team.
At the end of the day, this is a bargain price on the QB for a 1-seed. It's hard to argue with that.
Nix is by far the cheapest QB on the board when considering MVP odds in comparison to team Super Bowl odds.
Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold are relative bargains, at under 70% implied to win MVP in a Super Bowl victory, but both have obvious superstar teammates who could steal votes — we'll get back to them in a second.
C.J. Stroud is one other name who stands out with some value at +2000 (DraftKings), implied 67% to win MVP versus Houston's +1300 Super Bowl price. If the Texans make a surprise run and win it all, Stroud and the improving passing offense would need to find answers for an offense missing a run game, and you have to believe voters would crown a young star QB as MVP in a win.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba +2800
Let's stick with the 1-seeds and head to the other conference.
Seattle is the NFC 1-seed and the Super Bowl favorite at +390 (FanDuel), implied 20.4% to win it all.
The NFC is the far more difficult conference, and Seattle has to play one fewer game than the rest of the competition. The Seahawks are two home games away from a title — which is why Sam Darnold is the Super Bowl MVP favorite at +600.
Darnold is the right favorite, and considering how often the QB of the winning team takes MVP, he's not a terrible bet.
But Darnold was never in real conversations this year for MVP or any other award — but his teammate is a heavy favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the league with 1,793 receiving yards this season and added 119 receptions and 10 touchdowns to boot. He had at least 100 yards in over half his games and at least 72 in all but one. Eight times he had at least five catches for 90 yards and a TD. Six times he had at least eight catches and 120 yards.
Do that on the game's biggest stage in a win, and you can bet Smith-Njigba will be live for Super Bowl MVP at +2800 (Caesars).
Seattle has no other serious receiving threat, and the rushing attack is usually split between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. The Seahawks would be more likely than most teams to have a defensive Super Bowl MVP, but offense is still far more likely.
Smith-Njigba only has to win MVP in an implied 17% of all Seattle Super Bowl victories for this bet to have value. JSN would likely have been MVP in at least three or four Seahawks victories already this season, somewhere between 20-to-29% of their wins — and notably three of their four victories against teams that made the playoffs.
Because Seattle's passing attack funnels so heavily through JSN, a huge amount of Darnold passes end up in his stud receiver's hands, neutering Darnold's statistical advantage for a possible MVP case.
Like Nix, this is an excellent bet on the star of the 1-seed, two home wins away from a shot at the award.
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Puka Nacua +3500
If we're not going to bet on a player on a 1-seed, we may as well take the next best thing available.
The Rams didn't get the 1-seed, but they got by far the softest opponent in the playoff field. The Panthers are the worst team in the field and the Rams are double-digit road favorites, by far biggest of Wild Card weekend and in the 80-to-90% implied range to advance. That's still not a bye but it's as close as it gets, especially this year.
The most likely outcome from there is a road game in Chicago or Philadelphia. That won't be easy, but the Rams would be favored in either location — and more importantly, that would mean only having to play one of the top three presumed NFC teams, all of them right there in the NFC West. A San Francisco win would likely send the 49ers to Seattle, a tougher matchup than the Rams would face.
Los Angeles is the top-rated team in the market. That's correctly priced in my opinion, and I'd have the Rams favored by more than a field goal on a neutral field against every team in the NFL other than Seattle.
L.A. would be a clear and significant favorite to win the Super Bowl as the 1-seed. The fact that the Rams are priced just behind the Seahawks at +430 (FanDuel) despite needing to play an extra game and, likely, a road game in Seattle, shows just how strong the Rams are.
Los Angeles is my Super Bowl pick, but it's hard to invest at +430, 18.9% implied.
Some quick back-of-the-napkin math — make the Rams 90% to win this weekend, 60% to win in Philly or Chicago, a coin flip in Seattle, then clear 70% favorites in the Super Bowl. That would put L.A. right at 18.9%, the price you're paying for a Rams ticket right now.
And however much you like the Rams, every one of those percentages is very aggressive for a single game — especially considering L.A. has already blown four likely wins with goofy endings this season.
If you want to invest in the Rams, you'll need to get creative. Matthew Stafford at +625 to win MVP probably isn't creative enough; he'd have to win MVP in over 73% of all Rams titles for that ticket to have surplus value — and that's only if there's value on the +430 ticket to start with.
Enter: Puka Nacua.
Nacua isn't exactly Jaxon Smith-Njigba. L.A.'s rushing attack is more lethal, and Davante Adams is a far better receiving option than anyone else Seattle has opposite JSN. Even the Rams' tight ends are statistical threats as often as they play 13 personnel.
Still, Nacua put up massive numbers this season. He had 1,715 receiving yards, just off the league lead, and he did that despite missing one game and playing around 50% of the snaps in four more games.
Nacua had 129 catches, including 10+ receptions in six games. He scored in over half his games and also had 85+ combined yards in three-fourths of them.
Looking for a huge MVP game? Puka had 167 or more yards four times already this season, and he found the end zone in three of those four games, scoring twice in half of them. He would've been L.A.'s clear MVP in all four of those games and at least once more this season.
Look at some receivers who Super Bowl MVP over the last couple of decades:
- Cooper Kupp: 8 receptions, 92 yards, 2 TDs
- Julian Edelman: 10 receptions, 141 yards
- Santonio Holmes: 9 receptions, 141 yards, 1 TD
- Deion Branch: 11 receptions, 143 yards
Aren't those lines reminiscent of what Nacua would put up in a Rams win? Huge volume, repeated targets, chewing up yardage, and moving the chains repeatedly in big, high-leverage spots. That's Nacua, and it's the exact formula former teammate Cooper Kupp used to snag MVP in Stafford's first Super Bowl win with the Rams.
The Rams are +430 to win it all, but Nacua is priced much longer at +3500 to win MVP (DraftKings).
That's just 2.9% implied, and it means Nacua only has to win in less than 15% of all Rams victories for that ticket to have value.
Nacua is my favorite Super Bowl MVP bet on the board entering the postseason at +3500.
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Saquon Barkley +6600
No running back this century has won Super Bowl MVP — it's been 28 years since Terrell Davis last won it in 1998! — but Saquon Barkley is the best bet to break that trend.
Do you believe in the Eagles offense? You might be the only one.
The Eagles struggled mightily to find an identity all season, and the running game has fallen off badly. There are no secret underlying metrics suggesting a sudden turnaround. I have no magic formula to explain to you why the Eagles will suddenly run the ball well again. They probably won't!
But what if they do?
The Eagles are a run-heavy team at heart, and their defense is playing so well right now that they will have a chance in any game. Philadelphia will start the postseason at home and could get a second home game (if the Seahawks get upset).
We already know Philadelphia's winning formula: play defense, shorten the game, win with physicality, and let the offensive stars make a couple big plays.
Barkley is the team's biggest star, and though he had a quiet Super Bowl, he entered the game as Philadelphia's MVP favorite, priced shorter than Jalen Hurts — +260 versus +375. Barkley didn't win Super Bowl MVP, but would've almost certainly won MVP in all three other Eagles playoff wins last season.
Philadelphia rested last week and should be healthier with the return of T Lane Johnson especially notable.
It's also worth noting who the Eagles would play down the line if they keep winning.
The Rams are one likely opponent — Barkley absolutely shredded them twice last season. The Bears are another likely opponent — their defense is poor at best.
More importantly, consider the likely Super Bowl opponents. Denver, Houston, and Jacksonville have tough defenses, but Buffalo and New England are two of the most likely opponents, and both teams have been awful against the run.
Let's put it another way — if Philadelphia makes the Super Bowl against either Buffalo or New England, you're really going to want that Saquon Super Bowl MVP ticket.
Philadelphia is the fourth-ranked Super Bowl favorite at +950 (DraftKings), implied 9.5%.
Barkley is +6600 to win BetMGM, just 1.5% implied. That means Barkley only has to win MVP in about 16% of all Eagles Super Bowl victories to give value to that ticket!
By comparison, last year's +260 ticket in the Super Bowl meant Barkley was 56% implied to win MVP, so that shows just how much potential value there is — especially since Hurts already won MVP, leaving an easy narrative path for Barkley.
How about another comparison?
Christian McCaffrey is +10000 to win MVP, but the 49ers are +3000 to win the title. McCaffrey would need to win Super Bowl MVP in 31% of all 49ers victories for that ticket to have value.
James Cook is a far better investment at +10000 (BetRivers). The Bills are +1100 to win a title, so Cook is only 12% implied to win MVP in that scenario. He had four games this season with 100+ rushing yards and a pair of scores and likely would've been MVP in each game, so he's an interesting bet.
But Cook unfortunately has no shot of playing Buffalo's awful run defense in the Super Bowl and would likely face a much tougher opponent. And we all know how hard it would be for anyone on the Bills not named Josh Allen to win MVP in that crowing scenario.
Barkley has the right mix of narrative, talent, opportunity, and price. He's the right RB to bet for Super Bowl MVP entering the postseason.
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