Welcome back to the NFL Pick Six.
Early each week, we'll look ahead at the upcoming NFL slate and parlay six moneylines that "should" win — at least on paper — in the week to come.
It's a quick early look at the next games up, and like any good pick-six, we'll wrap each week with my extra Point, one more thing you need to know and a future to bet as we flip the NFL calendar to another new week.
We hit our first Pick Six at +630 in Week 7 but came up short at +2019 last week. It's another week fully of hefty favorites.
Our Week 9 Pick Six ML parlay has odds at +568 on FanDuel as of publishing. Let's get to the NFL picks!
NFL Moneyline Picks — Week 9 Parlay
Ravens Moneyline
Ravens vs Dolphins; Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET
It looks like we'll finally get to see Lamar Jackson back on a football field this week — no, like, for real this time — and this looks like a great get-right spot for the Ravens.
Throw Baltimore's season-long metrics out the window.
The offense is finally healthy, and it's not just Jackson.
The returns of FB Patrick Ricard, LT Ronnie Stanley and TE Isaiah Likely should revitalize Derrick Henry and the Ravens' run game; Henry may go wild against a Dolphins defense that's been downright putrid against the run.
Henry has won 14 games with the Ravens, and he's run for 100 yards in nine of those games and found the end zone in 10 of them. Plenty of King Henry should set up an easy win for Baltimore and a nice way to ease Jackson back into action.
Mike McDaniel's Dolphins have not been great as underdogs (42% ATS) or on short rest (33% ATS), and Thursday night favorites of at least a touchdown are 58% ATS. We don't need a cover — just a Baltimore W.
And don't look now, but it's probably time to buy Ravens stock going forward. After TNF, the Ravens have games against the Vikings, Browns, and Jets, which means 1-5 might turn into 6-5 in a hurry, with all four Steelers and Bengals games to come after that.
There's a reason Baltimore is still the division favorite. A simple bet on Ravens over 8.5 wins at +100 (FanDuel) makes sense with this soft schedule, even if you decide to pivot later. This may also be a smart time to invest in Jackson and Henry statistical futures.
Note: if you don't read in time to add the Ravens to your Pick Six parlay, you can still play the other five moneylines below at around +440; or if you like, you can add the Chargers in Tennessee to get six picks at around +538.
Lions Moneyline
Vikings vs Lions; Sunday 1 p.m. ET
It hasn't gone well for the Vikings lately against Detroit. The Lions have won five in a row in this divisional rivalry by an average of 10.2 PPG, with a double-digit win in all three home games of that stretch.
Jared Goff and the Lions remain nearly invincible at home, and Brian Flores' defense has had no answers for this Detroit attack. Even with Minnesota's defense playing better in recent years, the Lions still carve them up. But this year's defense can't even stop Kimani Vidal and the Chargers.
The Vikings are coming off extra rest, but will have to thrust J.J. McCarthy back into the starting lineup for only his third start ever — a rough re-entry against a defense ranked No. 1 by DVOA almost halfway through the season, especially with a Vikings offensive line that continues to be ravaged by injuries.
It's pretty tough to see this going well for Minnesota.
As well as the Lions are playing, Detroit is still a bit underrated in the futures market — perhaps because of the presence of Green Bay.
FTN has the Lions at 56% to win the division, but Detroit is still +125 to do so at FanDuel. That's a smart investment, and it implies value on the Lions to win the NFC or Super Bowl if you want to push your chips in.
Rams Moneyline
Saints vs Rams; Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Look, they don't all have to be difficult.
The Rams are really good — maybe even better than you think. Los Angeles traded for Titans CB Roger McCreary on Monday to strengthen an already surprising defense; the Rams rank top three in both Offensive and Defensive DVOA.
The Saints? They're not as good, and they're probably trending in the wrong direction with injuries starting to impact their defense and especially the offensive line, with star C Cesar Ruiz out.
That's a tough setup for rookie QB Tyler Shough, who will make his debut in a brutal spot — on the road, with precious little blocking against that nasty, fast Rams defensive front.
Shough is statuesque at best so this could get ugly — we might have to think about a Saints team total under mineshaft or even a Rams shutout.
Either way, the Rams are an easy addition to our Pick Six — and they look like a great Survivor pick this week since this is by far the easiest game left on the schedule. Don't forget things can always go sideways with Matthew Stafford's health always a wild card.
Jaguars Moneyline
Jaguars vs Raiders; Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Both of these teams are coming off a bye week, and that feels more significant for Jacksonville than Las Vegas.
The Raiders don't know whether they're coming or going, and it's starting to feel like both Pete Carroll and Geno Smith may be past expiration.
The Jaguars, on the other hand, are back from their annual London trip and finally got a chance to catch their breath for the league's youngest staff.
It was always going to be a steep early climb for Liam Coen and this green coaching staff, so the opportunity to self-scout and get this young team pointed back in the right direction will be huge.
Both defenses have been better than expected — fringe top 10 by DVOA — but the offenses are far apart. Vegas has not found a workable offensive line — the Raiders are barely averaging 14 PPG and scored just 26 points in their last three games combined.
Jacksonville's offense has been inconsistent, but much better. The run game is greatly improved under Coen and should find plenty of room against the Raiders. The bye week could also mean more of a chance to integrate Travis Hunter into the offense and get him on the same page with Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr.
Coen's offense with an extra week to prep should find enough answers to get the win in Las Vegas.
Seahawks Moneyline
Seahawks vs Commanders; Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
I already bet Seahawks -2.5 last week on the Lookahead, then doubled down with Seahawks -3 on the Sunday night Hot Read.
Sure enough, this one is past the key number now at Seahawks -3.5, robbing most of the ATS value — but we can still play the moneyline and just get a Sunday night win.
Public opinion of the Commanders is slipping quickly after an ugly 21-point drubbing in Kansas City on Monday night in which Washington fell apart completely in the second half. The defense is fading badly, and the offense just hasn't had enough answers.
Will we see Jayden Daniels in this one? It feels like he'll have to give it a shot with the season slipping away, but that might mean a 70% Daniels, who's suffered multiple leg injuries already this season, or it could mean another chance to bet against Marcus Mariota.
Washington did get Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel back healthy, but those two don't move the needle much without a QB who can get them the ball.
Washington is struggling, but Seattle is thriving.
I've backed the Seahawks in five straight games, and I still don't think the market has caught up. This is a top-five team, and the Seahawks rank that high in all three phases of the game by DVOA, including an outlier great special teams unit that neutralizes a typical Commanders strength here.
Seattle is especially great at passing the ball and stopping the run. Washington has a run-heavy approach with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and has struggled to score when opponents contain the run. The Commanders lack pass rush and talent in the secondary, so Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be set up for another big game.
I keep banging the drum on Seattle futures, and there's still some value with the team overlooked after the bye week.
A simple bet on over 10.5 wins looks good (-130, FanDuel), with FTN projecting Seattle at 11.6 wins, and there's still some value on a division ticket at +240 (DraftKings), with books giving San Francisco too much credit as an option.
The Seahawks are also +500 to reach the NFC Championship Game (bet365), insultingly longer than the 49ers, if you're ready to buy into a postseason run.
Cowboys Moneyline
Cardinals vs Cowboys; Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
This is the scariest pick of the week, if you believe in history.
The Cardinals have some weird sort of juju on the Cowboys — Arizona has won seven of the eight meetings since 2008, all seven times as an underdog. Kyler Murray is also a perfect 9-0 in Jerry World.
Murray should return from injury off a bye week, so the big question is just how much the Cardinals can put up on this awful Dallas defense.
The Cowboys are bleeding points, but Arizona's offense has underwhelmed this season. The Cardinals have yet to score 28 in a game and are averaging under 22 PPG. They've also allowed at least 22 points in four straight, so that math is not adding up.
The key name in this matchup might be one you're not expecting: Klayton Adams, who was the run coordinator for the Cardinals the last few seasons, but he's the offensive coordinator in Dallas now.
The Cowboys entered the season with one of the league's worst RB rooms and a young offensive line that's been banged up all year, but Dallas has had an outstanding rushing attack anyway. Meanwhile, Arizona's run game has all but disappeared without Adams, and the offense has failed to adjust.
It also matters where this game is played.
Dallas's offense has not traveled well, but the Cowboys are unstoppable at home. Dallas is averaging over 41 PPG in Jerry World, with 40, 40 and 44 points in its three home games, a massive jump from 24.4 PPG on the road.
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are going to hit 30 in this game, maybe higher. Can Kyler and the Cards keep up? I'm not convinced.
Let's hope Dallas can close out our Pick Six ticket on Monday night with a flourish.
NFL Week 9 Moneyline Parlay
- Ravens Moneyline
- Lions Moneyline
- Rams Moneyline
- Jaguars Moneyline
- Seahawks Moneyline
- Cowboys Moneyline
Anderson's Extra Point
Division Futures/Parlays: Buccaneers, Colts, Saints, Browns.
As we hit the halfway point of the regular season, some of the division races are starting to become clear — for better and for worse.
Some teams are already making playoff reservations. Others look stuck in the cellar at the bottom of the division, with fans tuning in a little more closely on college football Saturdays in preparation for the draft.
Only three teams have odds at 60% or better to win their divisions at FTN.
Do you know who they are?
The Eagles are third-highest at 82% even with all their foibles, but the Bucs and Colts are tops, each at 88%. That means value on both in the division, even at -450 and -320 respectively, both at FanDuel, implying just 82% and 76% to win the division.
All three of those teams are currently projected to finish more than three wins atop their divisions.
Five teams are projected to finish at least 2.5 wins below everyone else in the division: the Titans, Raiders, Browns, Cardinals and Saints. Three of those teams have very short odds to finish last in the division at FanDuel — too short to bother investing — but there's value on the Saints at -475 and Browns at -195, thanks to their bad divisions keeping things relatively close.
Introducing the It's-So-Over-We-Are-So-Back division parlay.
You can parlay the Bucs and Colts to win their divisions with the Saints and Browns to finish last at +170 at FanDuel. It's not a huge number, but the math says this should hit better than 50% of the time and we're getting plus money on four of the most certain outcomes in the NFL.
If +170 isn't enough juice for you, you can use those four picks as a baseline and add another angle or two.
We mentioned value on both Detroit and Seattle division tickets above. Add those two in and the parlay hits +1672 at FanDuel, with odds that should be closer to around +700.
Or maybe you're not sold on the Lions and Seahawks with the Packers and Rams right there. How about one other team it's so over for?
The 49ers defense has cratered with injuries and looks to be the worst in the league — worse than Dallas — while Brock Purdy still isn't ready to return.
San Francisco already has a three-game lead (and the tiebreak) on the Cardinals, but the 49ers look likely to finish last of the three others in the NFC West with the Seahawks and Rams playing so well.
San Francisco is +175 to finish third in the division; add that one in with our core four for a +617 It's-So-Over-We-Are-So-Back division parlay.
