Let me start by saying that a lot goes into handicapping sports, especially the NFL — traditional stats, advanced stats, weather, matchups and so on.
Another box to check, in addition to the ones above, is the game officials and the historical data they bring to the table.
NFL Divisional Round Referees
Let’s take a look at all four head officials assigned for the NFL Divisional Round and some numbers to consider heading into the weekend of playoff action.
- Carl Cheffers for Bills at Broncos
- John Hussey for 49ers at Seahawks
- Shawn Smith for Texans at Patriots
- Shawn Hochuli for Rams at Bears
Every Divisional Round Game
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Saturday, Jan. 17
4:30pm ET on CBS
Carl Cheffers
- 13-2 SU in Broncos home games with Cheffers as a referee, side judge or head official.
- Since 2009, the Broncos are 8-1 SU in home games with Cheffers.
- The Bills have won four straight games outright with Cheffers (just 5-5 SU on the road since 2008). The Bills are also 3-1 SU in the playoffs with Cheffers, all at home.
- Bo Nix is 2-0 SU/ATS with Cheffers as head official.
- Sean Payton is 16-3 SU and 12-6-1 ATS with Cheffers as head official.
- Josh Allen is 10-3 SU with Cheffers as head official, covering four straight.
- Sean McDermott is 11-3 SU with Cheffers as head official.
- Home teams have finished above .500 SU in 12 straight seasons with Cheffers as head official. Home teams are also 9-4 SU in playoff games with Cheffers.
- In 15 playoff games as a head official, the under is 11-4 with Carl Cheffers.
- Cheffers called 15 defensive holding penalties this season, tied for the most of any official in the NFL. Nine of those 15 calls were on home teams, also tied for most in the league.
- Cheffers was also tied for the league lead in defensive offsides penalties with 13, with eight of those calls coming on the road team.
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Saturday, Jan. 17
8:00pm ET on FOX
John Hussey
- The 49ers are 2-0 SU this season with Hussey as head official.
- Since 2020, the Seahawks have lost five straight games outright with Hussey as head official.
- Kyle Shanahan is 6-2 SU with Hussey as head official, but 0-2 SU/ATS with Brock Purdy.
- Hussey heavily favors home teams in terms of win/loss. Home teams are 56-22 SU over the last five seasons, with a $100 bettor up $1,516 — double the next head official in ROI. Home teams are also 47-27-4 ATS over the last five years, the best mark of any head official.
- John Hussey called 24 defensive pass interference penalties this season, the most of any official in the NFL (excluding dismissed calls). Hussey was fairly balanced, calling 13 on home teams and 11 on road teams.
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Sunday, Jan. 18
3:00pm ET on ESPN
Shawn Smith
- The Texans are 5-1 SU/ATS with Shawn Smith as head official and 1-0 SU/ATS with C.J. Stroud as the starter under DeMeco Ryans.
- Underdogs are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the playoffs with Shawn Smith as head official. Overall, underdogs are 68-54-6 ATS (56%) with Smith.
- Home teams are 12-3 ATS with Shawn Smith as head official this year, the best mark in the NFL.
- The over is 2-0 with Drake Maye at quarterback when Shawn Smith is the head official.
- Shawn Smith called only 29 holding penalties this season, the second-fewest of any official. He leaned slightly toward road teams, calling holding penalties at a 17-12 clip.
- Shawn Smith had 10 total defensive offsides penalties this season, with nine of those 10 calls on the road team, tied for the most in the NFL.
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Sunday, Jan. 18
6:30pm ET on NBC
Shawn Hochuli
- Shawn Hochuli is 2-0 SU in Bears home games and 0-3 SU when the Bears are on the road in any officiating role. He is 2-0 SU in Bears home games specifically as head official.
- Since 2019, road teams are 59-54 SU with Hochuli, profiting a $100 bettor $1,166, ranking him as a top-four official out of 23 in that span. Since 2018, road teams are 70-54-3 ATS with Hochuli as head official.
- Hochuli was the head official for the Rams’ 30-27 win over Tampa Bay in the 2021-22 playoffs.
- The under is 71-54-3 when Shawn Hochuli is the head official, the third-best mark among 54 referees since 2008.
- Hochuli has called the second-most roughing-the-passer penalties this season, evenly split with five on the home team and four on the road team.
- Hochuli has called the most false start penalties of any referee this season at 51, not including two that were dismissed. His 30 false starts on home teams are also the most of any official, with John Hussey second-most.
- Hochuli called the second-most defensive pass interference penalties of any official this year (Hussey ranked first). Notably, he called 14 DPI penalties on road teams, the most of any official.
- Hochuli called 17 unnecessary roughness penalties this season, the most in the NFL. Those calls accounted for 230 total yards, also the highest mark in the league by a significant margin.
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