One of the wildest Wild Card weekends is now behind us and we have four fantastic Divisional Round matchups. One thing we are now guaranteed in 2025-26 is a brand-new Super Bowl champion after the Eagles lost to the 49ers last week.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's the Divisional round of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Jan. 13, at 12 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Road Chalk
Studio 54
If Bills and Rams both close as favorites, it will be the first time in 54 years we have two road favorites in the Divisional Round.
1971 Divisional Round: Baltimore Colts (-4) at Browns, won 20-3 and Cowboys open -2, close -1 at Vikings, won 20-12
📊 Unitas leads Colts to last playoff win before move to Indy
📊 Staubach, “Doomsday Defense” causes 5 MIN TO
1968 Divisional Round (AFL/NFL): Chiefs (-4) at Raiders, lost 41-6 and Cowboys (-3.5) at Browns, lost 31-20
📊 Len Dawson throws 4 INT, Lamonica throws 5 TDs, 3 to Biletnikoff
📊 Don Meredith gets benched in final game after 3 INT
Divisional Notes
Get Prepared
Some NFL playoff trends…
+ Since 2003, home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are 33-44-1 ATS (43%), including 3-7 ATS since 2020 (SEA, DEN). As a favorite of 7+ pts off a bye, they are 17-26-1 ATS (40%) (SEA).
+ Teams with a bye in the playoffs entering the Divisional Round are cashing at a 43% ATS rate since 2003. If you combine the Super Bowl and Divisional Round, favorites off a bye week in the playoffs are 37-59-1 ATS (39%) in that span (SEA).
+ Road teams that missed the playoffs last year are 29-14 ATS (67%) in the Divisional Round since 2003. Those same teams are 41-44-1 ATS (48%) in all other rounds of the playoffs (SF).
+ Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 8-30 SU and 19-19 ATS in the Divisional Round since 2003. Since 2011, those teams are 3-22 SU and 13-12 ATS (SF, BUF, CHI).
+ In the Divisional Round, underdogs who are above .500 ATS on the season are 40-23-1 1H ATS since 2005 (SF, CHI, HOU).
Top Seed Dog
The Josh Allen Effect
If Broncos close as underdogs, it would be just 4th time in the last 40 years a team off bye in the Divisional Round isn't listed as a favorite:
• 2017-18: Eagles (+2.5) vs. ATL (PHI won)
• 2011-12: 49ers (+3.5) vs. NO (SF won)
• 1996-97: Panthers (+3.5) vs. DAL (CAR won)
Panthers in 2013-14 closed as a pick'em at home vs. 49ers, and almost made the list.
Win, But Not Cover
ATS Bounce Back
Teams that win but don't cover the spread in their previous playoff game, who are not off a bye week, are 21-12 ATS since 2003-04 and 8-2 ATS since 2020-21. This week, that is the Rams.
Short Rest Time
Tough Schedule
The 49ers, Bills and Texans all play on short rest this week in the playoffs.
Teams playing on short rest in the playoffs in the Divisional Round or later are just 6-15 SU dating back to division realignment back in 2002.
Seattle is on 14 days rest. 49ers are on 6 days rest. According to the NFL, teams to have that big of a rest advantage heading into a playoff matchup all won their games outright (7-0 SU) since 1984.
Road Trip Time
Plane To Plane
The Packers and the Chargers were on the road last week after playing on the road in Week 18.
Teams to play on their 2nd consecutive road game or later in the playoffs are 32-64 SU (33%) over the last 20 years, including 25-54 SU when they are listed as underdogs.
This week, that is the Bills, 49ers and Rams.
Entering The Field
Stay Close
Since 2008, the eventual Super Bowl champion has at least come from the top-8 in Super Bowl odds entering the playoffs each year, including from the top-6 in each of the past 12 seasons. The last team to win outside the top-6 in odds entering the playoffs was the 2012 Ravens.
Here were the teams in the top-6 in Super Bowl odds entering the playoffs: Seahawks, Rams, Broncos, Eagles, Bills and Patriots.
Big Dogs
49ers History
49ers are 7.5-point underdogs vs. the Seahawks this week, if the line holds it will be the 2nd-biggest underdog for the 49ers in their playoff history:
+10.5, 1983-84 at Washington (lost 24-21)
+7.5, 2025-26 at Seahawks
+7, 1970 at Vikings (won 17-14)
Reversal of Fortune
Turn Around
We were coming off a regular season to remember for overs and for fading the public.
• For the first time since 2010-11, overs went over .500 in consecutive regular seasons and at 52.8% to the over in the regular season since 2024, that is the highest two-year over win pct since that 2010-11 stretch.
Unders turned around and went 4-2 in Wild Card weekend.
• Teams with 60%+ of tickets ATS went 70-102-1 ATS (40.7%) during the regular season this year, worst mark in the 23-year history of the Bet Labs database.
The public then turned around and went 5-1 ATS in Wild Card weekend, with just the Steelers as a loss (and even they had just 51% of tickets).
Top Notes
Outliers
• When Sean Payton coaches a playoff game on extended prep time/rest, his teams are 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS). His 4-0 SU mark is the best for any head coach since 2003 in the playoffs.
• On the road in Seattle, Brock Purdy is 4-0 SU/ATS vs. 49ers, winning by 10.5 PPG and covering by 6.4 PPG.
• In the Wild Card and Divisional Round of the playoffs, Kyle Shanahan is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS, including 3-0 SU on the road as underdogs in both of those rounds.
• As a favorite of 6 pts or more, Sam Darnold is 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS in his career.
• Matthew Stafford has started four playoff games as a favorite in his career; he is 4-0 SU in those games, the best mark for any QB since 2000.
• Drake Maye has New England playing well as a favorite. As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Maye is 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS, winning those ten games by 16.6 PPG.
Every NFL Divisional Round Game
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➤The story in this game is the line. If the Bills close as road favorites against the No. 1 seed Broncos, it will be just the 4th time in the last 40 years a team off bye in the Divisional Round isn't listed as a favorite:
• 2017-18: Eagles (+2.5) vs. ATL (PHI won)
• 2011-12: 49ers (+3.5) vs. NO (SF won)
• 1996-97: Panthers (+3.5) vs. DAL (CAR won)
In the other three instances, the home underdog won outright.
➤The Bills took care of the Jaguars last week, advancing to the Divisional Round. This season, after teams have faced the Jaguars, they are actually 12-4 ATS in their next game, which is tied for the 2nd-best previous opponent mark in the NFL behind just the Ravens (12-3-1 ATS).
Last 3 seasons, teams are 31-17 ATS after facing Jacksonville, .500 ATS or better in all three seasons, the best mark in the NFL.
➤Given how bad the Broncos have been as favorites this year, it makes sense the market isn’t giving them much respect.
This season, Broncos are 7-10 ATS (41.2%), 4-1 ATS as underdogs and 3-9 ATS as a favorite.
With an ATS win pct of under 42%, Denver would be the 3rd team to have a bye in the Divisional Round with a ATS win pct below 42%:
2025-26 Broncos (7-10 ATS)
2022-23 Chiefs (6-11 ATS), lost ATS in DIV, won SB (2-1 ATS in playoffs)
1992-93 Dolphins (6-10 ATS), won ATS in DIV, lost in CC (1-1 ATS in playoffs)
➤In the playoffs, Sean Payton is 9-9 SU, but just 7-11 ATS as a head coach.
At home in the playoffs, Payton’s teams are 7-3 SU. He started his career 6-0 SU at home in the playoffs and has gone 1-3 SU since.
When Payton coaches a playoff game on extended prep time/rest, his teams are 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS). His 4-0 SU mark is the best for any head coach since 2003 in the playoffs.
➤Historically, Josh Allen has performed well in terms of wins and losses when facing good defenses.
• When defenses allow under 20 PPG, Allen is 30-10 SU and 29-10-1 ATS in his career – the best mark for any QB since at least 2003, just ahead of Tom Brady. When Allen is on the road in this spot, he is 12-4 SU.
Looking strictly at the playoffs for Josh, he is 6-3 ATS when facing a defense allowing under 21 PPG and 0-5 ATS (2-3 SU) when facing a defense allowing above that mark.
• Facing teams allowing 20 PPG or more, Allen is just 39-50-4 ATS, including 17-28-1 ATS in the last four seasons, worst mark of any QB in the NFL.
➤Good defense has prevailed lately in the Divisional Round. Denver has allowed 13 pts or less in their last two games and is now coming off a bye at home. Since 2015, we’ve seen four teams in this same spot; they all won outright:
2019-19 Patriots beat Chargers
2017-18 Vikings beat Saints
2017-18 Eagles beat Falcons
2014-15 Seahawks beat Panthers
➤Bills are playing on short rest this week after facing the Jaguars on Sunday and now facing the Broncos on Saturday afternoon. In what would be a normal letdown spot for Josh Allen, he is actually 12-5 SU playing on short rest after a SU win in his career, winning by 8 PPG.
➤The Broncos scored 21 pts or less in nine total games this season and in the end, they entered the playoffs going 14-3 SU – a very unique combination. Denver is only the 5th team in the Super Bowl era to have 9+ games scoring 21 or less and win 13+ games outright during the regular season:
2001 Steelers – Lost in CC
1986 Giants – Won SB
1986 Bears – Lost in DIV
1981 49ers – Won SB
➤It’s a small line, but this season the Bills are just 6-9 ATS as favorites and 3-0 ATS as underdogs.
The question is, how does Buffalo do in tight spread games – a line of 4 or less. They are 5-2 SU this season and they are .500 SU or better in that department in nine consecutive seasons, going 43-25 SU (+$1,297), the 2nd-most profitable team in the NFL behind just the Steelers. Josh Allen is 37-22 SU in that spot in his career.
➤Josh Allen is 6-8 ATS in his playoff career. In the Divisional Round and Conference Championship, Allen is 2-5 ATS.
Since 2003, here are the only QBs 3+ games under .500 ATS in the Divisional Round or later:
Josh Allen: 2-5 ATS
Matt Ryan: 2-5 ATS
Drew Brees: 4-7 ATS
Brock Purdy: 1-4 ATS
Lamar Jackson: 1-4 ATS
Dak Prescott: 0-3 ATS
As a favorite of 3 pts or less, or an underdog in the playoffs, Allen is 3-5 ATS.
➤This season, the Bills are 6-1 ATS when facing teams who are above .500 SU, the most profitable mark ATS and the highest ATS ROI in the NFL this season.
It’s not just this year though. Last 2 seasons, Buffalo is 12-3 ATS vs. teams above .500 and last 3 seasons, they are 19-6 ATS, both are the best marks in the NFL.
➤Buffalo held on in the second half and covered the 2H spread vs. Jaguars last week.
In his NFL career, Josh Allen is 87-50-3 against the 2nd half spread, with a $100 bettor up $2,936, best mark of any QB since 2005. Over the last two seasons, Allen is 28-9 2H ATS, including an absurd 14-1 2H ATS vs. teams above .500.
➤Did Buffalo use all their magic last week? After a Sean McDermott coached team goes 3-for-3 or better in the red zone, they are just 3-8 ATS in their next game, including 1-6 ATS in his last 7 games in that spot.
Referee Trends and Stats: Carl Cheffers
13-2 SU in Broncos home games as a referee, side judge or head official.
Since 2009, Broncos 8-1 SU in home games with Cheffers
Bills have won four straight games outright with Cheffers (just 5-5 SU on road since 2008). Bills are 3-1 SU in playoffs with Cheffers (all at home).
Bo Nix is 2-0 SU/ATS with Cheffers as head official
Sean Payton is 16-3 SU and 12-6-1 ATS with Cheffers as head official
Josh Allen is 10-3 SU with Cheffers as head official, covering four straight.
Sean McDermott is 11-3 SU with Cheffers
Home teams are above .500 SU in 12 straight seasons with Cheffers as head official. Home teams are 9-4 SU in playoffs with Cheffers.
In 15 playoff games as a head official, the under is 11-4 with Carl Cheffers.
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➤This will be the first time in NFL history that two teams will face each other in the first week of the regular season, the last week of the regular season, and in the playoffs. The 49ers won 17-13 in the opera and Seattle won 13-3 in Week 18.
➤This is a series that has been dominated by San Francisco recently, even after their loss in Week 18. Since 2022, 49ers are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS vs. Seahawks.
Brock Purdy has made eight career starts against the Seahawks in his career. He is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in those games – his most SU wins and ATS wins against any opponent.
On the road in Seattle, Purdy is 4-0 SU/ATS vs. 49ers, winning by 10.5 PPG and covering by 6.4 PPG. Since 2003, Purdy is only QB 4-0 SU/ATS or better in Seattle.
On the road against the NFC West, Brock Purdy is 7-1 SU as a starter for the 49ers.
Purdy has played 5 career games against a Mike Macdonald defense (2023 Ravens, 2024-25 Seahawks): 7.2 yds/att, 6 TDs, 8 INTs, 79.7 passer rating.
➤In the Wild Card and Divisional Round of the playoffs, Kyle Shanahan is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS, including 3-0 SU on the road as underdogs in both of those rounds.
The 49ers have won 11 consecutive Wild Card and Divisional Round playoff games as a franchise.
➤This is the fourth time the Seahawks will have the No. 1 seed in the NFC – the previous three times they went to the Super Bowl, winning the other three Wild Card games by 8+ pts in enroute to that Super Bowl trip.
The No. 1 seed in the NFC has had a tough go of it lately. Since 2018-19, they are just 5-10 ATS in the playoffs – An NFC No. 1 seed has not won the Super Bowl since the 2017 Eagles and the 2013, Seahawks dating back to 2010.
➤Sam Darnold has been great as a big favorite.
• As a favorite of more than 3 pts, Darnold is 16-3 SU and 11-8 ATS
• As a favorite of 4 pts or more, Darnold is 14-1 SU and 10-5 ATS
• As a favorite of 6 pts or more, Darnold is 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS
Darold is winning those 13 games where he is favored by 6 pts or more by 16.1 PPG. Darnold’s 13-0 SU mark is tied with Bo Nix (also 13-0 SU) for the best mark since 2003.
➤Christian McCaffrey is on a playoff heater. He’s scored a TD in 8 straight playoff games, the 4th player in NFL history to score a TD in 8 straight playoff games, 1 TD shy of tying the record set by Thurman Thomas.
Most consecutive playoff games with a TD all-time:
Thurman Thomas – 9
Christian McCaffrey – 8
Emmitt Smith – 8
John Stallworth – 8
➤Seahawks have won 10 straight home playoff games outright — with fans in the stands, the 12th Man — Seattle lost its Wild Card game at home vs. Rams in 2020 with no fans because of COVID.
➤Seahawks have won 7 consecutive games outright entering their bye week before the Divisional Round. Teams on a 7+ game SU win streak, coming off a bye entering the Divisional Round are 2-8 ATS since 2003, failing to cover the spread by 6.4 PPG.
➤This has been really the best season in Seahawks history: Most outright wins (14), most road wins (8), highest point differential (+191) and best ATS regular season (12-5 ATS).
Teams coming off a bye in Divisional Round, who are outsourcing their opponents by 11+ PPG are just 4-12 ATS over the last 20 years.
➤49ers are on short rest this week after playing the Eagles on Sunday and now facing the Seahawks in Seattle on Saturday. Over the last 5 seasons, 49ers are actually 13-6 SU on short rest, which includes a 9-3 SU mark on the road on short rest in that span.
In his career as a starting QB, Brock Purdy is 8-4 SU on short rest, winning by 6.4 PPG.
➤Kyle Shanahan put on a clinic last week vs. Eagles. 49ers produced the highest single-game offensive success rate against the Eagles since Vic Fangio became their Defensive Coordinator.
49ers have had some issues continuing that success. After Shanahan has faced the 49ers, he is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their next game, failing to cover the spread 12.6 PPG.
➤The Seahawks rush defense has gone 26 consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher – with James Cook the last runner to go for 100 against Seattle back in Week 8 of last season.
➤The Sam Darnold turnaround has been remarkable.
• He is 28-7 SU over the last two seasons, most SU wins for any QB in the NFL — His 23-11-1 ATS mark is also best.
• In his first 6 seasons, he went 21-35 SU & 22-33-1 ATS.
➤The Seahawks get the 49ers this week and this season, Seattle is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS vs. teams above .500. Their two SU losses are by 5 combined pts – by 2 pts to the Rams and by 3 pts to the Buccaneers.
Over the last two seasons, Sam Darnold is 13-5 SU vs. teams above .500. In his first 6 seasons, he went 8-15 SU vs. teams above .500. Only Jalen Hurts has more SU wins vs. teams above .500 at 14-5 SU.
➤The 49ers will be playing on short rest for the 3rd time in its last four games this week against the Seahawks. Since 2010, 49ers will actually be the 4th playoff team to play on short rest for the 3rd time in their last four games and the other three teams actually all won outright:
2025-26 Rams beat the Panthers
2024-25 Texans beat the Chargers
2020-21 Bills beat the Colts
Here is the key though, San Francisco would be the first team since division realignment in 2002 to have to play on short rest for the 3rd time in four games, with it not being their first playoff game.
➤49ers got a little lucky last week to win after having 2 turnovers on offense and not forcing any on defense.
This season, San Francisco is 5-0 SU/ATS the game after turning the ball over 2+ times in their previous game, covering the spread by 10 PPG. They are the only team 5-0 SU/ATS or better in the NFL this year after committing 2+ TO.
Referee Trends and Stats: John Hussey
49ers are 2-0 SU this season with Hussey as head official
Since 2020, Seahawks have lost five straight games outright with Hussey as head official
Kyle Shanahan is 6-2 SU with Hussey as head official, but 0-2 SU/ATS with Brock Purdy
Hussey heavily favors home teams in terms of win/loss. Home teams are 56-22 SU over the last 5 seasons, $100 bettor up $1,516, double the next head official in ROI. Home teams are 47-27-4 ATS in last 5 years, best of any head official.
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➤Drake Maye has New England playing well as a favorite. As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Maye is 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS, winning those ten games by 16.6 PPG.
As a favorite overall for Maye, the Patriots are 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS in those games.
What the Patriots have accomplished from an expectations standpoint is impressive. They are 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS and entering the season they were the first team since division realignment in 2002 to see their win total jump 4+ games year-to-year from BOTH their previous win total AND previous games won.
➤Texans defense generated -33.4 EPA, the fewest by any playoff defense in the last decade via NFL Next Gen Stats.
Top playoff defenses by EPA, 2016-2025:
Texans tonight: -33.4
Texans, 2024 WC vs LAC: -31.4 == Lost next playoff game by 9 pts
Rams, 2024 WC vs MIN: -29.0 == Lost next playoff game by 6 pts
Texans, 2023 WC vs CLE: -28.5 == Lost next playoff game by 24 pts
➤Drake Maye became the 26th QB to win their first playoff start since 2002 – of the previous 23 QBs who started the next playoff game, they went 7-16 SU and 10-13 ATS. When that next playoff game is at home, they are 2-4 SU/ATS, with Brock Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo winning the last two instances, both for the 49ers.
➤The Texans defense has faced Drake Maye once before, last season in Week 6, a 41-21 win for Houston on the road in New England.
Maye threw 2 INT – 1 of his 2 career games with multiple INT
Maye had a pass success rate of 45.9%, his 5th-lowest career mark with 30+ pass attempts
Maye had a 60.6% completion pct, his 3rd-lowest career mark with 30+ pass attempts
➤Stroud is now 3-0 SU/ATS in the Wild Card round and overall, the Texans franchise has had success in the opening frame of the playoffs, going 7-2 SU/ATS.
In the Divisional Round of the playoffs, the Texans are 0-6 SU in franchise history and Stroud is 0-2 SU, losing by 16.5 PPG.
➤Mike Vrabel has coached three home playoff games, one with the Patriots and two with the Titans. His defense has owned the day in all three of those games, with his teams scoring 16 pts or less, for a combined total of 45 pts, while his defense has allowed just 42 pts.
➤The Patriots only allowed 3 total pts in their playoff win last week vs. Chargers.
Since division realignment in 2002, only one team has allowed just 3 pts or less in the playoffs and played at home in their next game, the 2009-10 Colts, who beat and covered vs. Jets in their next game.
➤When the Patriots get going, it has historically been tough to beat them.
After they get a win in their first playoff game, they are 16-8 in that 2nd playoff game dating back to 2000, including 6-1 SU at home, with their only loss coming in 2012-13 to the Ravens.
➤Texans will be on short rest in New England this week after winning on the road on Monday Night Football last week.
Recently, short rest hasn’t been a terrible thing for Houston. Since calendar flipped to 2025, they are 4-1 SU on short rest.
➤Drake Maye has now faced five opponents at home who were above .500 SU at the time of the game, New England is just 2-3 SU in those games – including 1-1 SU this year, only facing two teams in that spot, the Bills back in December and the Chargers last week.
➤The Texans are on the longest SU winning streak for any team still in the playoffs, winning 10 in a row.
When a team is on a 10+ game SU win streak entering a playoff game and they are listed as underdogs they are 0-4 SU since 2000.
➤CJ Stroud has started 51 total games in the NFL, the under is 32-18-1 in those games – the best mark to the under for any QB since he entered the league three years ago.
➤Patriots ended up beating the Chargers in the Wild Card round after only scoring 16 pts in the win. Historically, it hasn’t been a great omen for teams to win their next playoff game after scoring less than 20 pts. Since 2011, teams are just 4-9 SU in their next playoff game after scoring under 20 pts in a playoff win.
➤The Patriots have been great off of wins this season, going 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS, the 2nd-best ATS mark in the NFL behind just the Seahawks. New England is covering the spread by 6 PPG off of wins this year. They were 3-12 SU and 5-8-2 ATS off of wins in the previous three seasons before this year.
➤DeMeco Ryans has been a first-half machine…
2025: 11-7 1H ATS
2024: 14-5 1H ATS
2023: 12-7 1H ATS
————————-
37-19 1H ATS
DeMeco has profited a $100 bettor $1,506 on the first-half spread for a 26.9% ROI, the 2nd-best ROI mark for any head coach since 2005, behind just Joe Gibbs.
Forgetting the spread, DeMeco is 38-16-2 on the 1H moneyline, winning 8 straight entering this week.
➤The Patriots/Chargers game ended 16-3 last week, with both teams going a combined 0-5 in the red zone. This was just the third playoff game with no red zone touchdowns since 2002 – the other two times, the team that advanced saw their next game go over the total.
Texans-Patriots will be the first playoff game with two teams that didn't allow a TD in previous round of playoffs since the 2002 NFC title game – Bucs won 27-10, and game went over the total of 33.5.
➤Patriots are now 13-5 ATS this season after beating the Chargers last week, the best ATS record in the NFL with the Seahawks on a bye, at 12-5 ATS this season.
Favorites with a 70%+ ATS win pct in the Divisional Round or later are 9-15 ATS since 2003.
Just looking at teams with a 70%+ ATS win pct who covered their previous playoff game and are now in the Divisional Round or later are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games dating back to 2009.
➤DeMeco Ryans joins John Harbaugh, Barry Switzer and Jim Harbaugh as the only head coaches to win at least one playoff game outright in each of their first three seasons in the NFL.
John Harbaugh did it five straight years and won a Super Bowl in that span.
Barry Switzer did it in three straight years and also won a Super Bowl in that span.
Jim Harbaugh did it in three straight years and made it to the Super Bowl in that span.
➤Texans defense is allowing just 16.7 PPG entering this playoff game against the Patriots.
When a team enters a Wild Card or Divisional Round game allowing under 17 PPG, they are 38-21 SU and 35-24 ATS dating back to 2003. When they are listed as underdogs, they are 14-12 SU and 18-8 ATS.
➤Texans were the 8th team in the Super Bowl era to start 0-3 and make the playoffs – they are now just the third to win a playoff game and they look to be the first to win two playoff games.
2025 Texans
2018 Texans – Lost WC
1998 Bills – Lost WC
1995 Lions – Lost WC
1992 Chargers – Won WC, Lost DIV
1982 Bucs – Lost WC
1981 Jets – Lost WC
1970 Raiders – Won DIV, Lost CC
Referee Trends and Stats: Shawn Smith
Texans are 5-1 SU/ATS with Shawn Smith as head official and 1-0 SU/ATS with CJ Stroud as a starter and DeMeco Ryans.
Underdogs are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the playoffs with Shawn Smith as the head official. Underdogs are also 68-54-6 ATS (56%) with Smith as head official
Home teams are 12-3 ATS with Shawn Smith as head official this year, best mark in the NFL.
Over is 2-0 with Drake Maye at QB with Shawn Smith as head official.
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➤The last time the Rams played the Bears in the playoffs was 40 years ago in the NFC Championship Game at Soldier Field in 1986 – a game won 24-0 by Chicago at home.
Matthew Stafford has faced Caleb Williams already, too. They played in Week 4 of last season in Chicago, a 24-18 win by the Bears. Chicago was a 3-pt favorite, the Rams turned it over twice, while Chicago did just enough to win.
➤The Bears had a comeback of a lifetime last week. The question is now what type of impact does that have on their next game.
- Teams leading a playoff game by 15+ points at start of the 4th quarter have lost two games before the Super Bowl: 2002 49ers over Giants (lost 31-6 next) and 1972 Cowboys over 49ers (lost 26-3 next).
- Since division realignment in 2002, teams after coming back from 10+ pts down in the playoffs are just 8-22 SU in their next playoff game, including 5-15 SU in any round before the Super Bowl.
- Bears had an 18-point comeback vs. Packers. We’ve seen ten 18+ pt playoff comebacks in Super Bowl era where that team had another playoff game to play that year. Those teams went 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS in their next game played.
➤The second half has been a special place for Caleb Williams and the Bears.
In his career, Caleb is 24-11 against the 2nd-half spread in 35 career starts, the 2nd-best mark over the last decade, behind just Josh Allen.
Caleb and the Bears have covered 8 straight 2H’s entering this week in the Divisional Round.
➤If the second half has been special for Caleb, the 1H hasn’t been nearly as good. In his career, he is 13-22 1H ATS, the worst mark of any QB in the last two seasons.
Caleb has lost four straight 1st halves ATS entering this week and he is 5-11 1H ATS vs. teams above .500.
➤It is expected to be around 15 degrees with 10+ MPH winds in Chicago for this game.
In Stafford’s career, he has started five games in under 30-degree weather outdoors, going 2-3 SU/ATS in those games. His coldest game came in December of last year in the Jets at 23 degrees, where L.A. scored just 19 pts.
This is projected to be the coldest game of Stafford’s career this weekend.
Since 2003, we’ve seen 13 dome teams play an outdoor playoff game on the road in under 30 degrees ad they went 2-11 SU and 5-8 ATS.
Dating back to 2016, the Rams as a franchise have played in nine outdoor games in under 40 degrees, they are 2-7 SU in those games, losing by 8.1 PPG.
➤Rams were massive road favorites against the Panthers last week, closing as 10-pt road favorites, which was tied for the largest road playoff spread in history.
Teams that were 10+ pt favorites in the playoffs are just 7-13 ATS in their next playoff game dating back to 2004. The last four teams in this spot dating back to 2022-23 have lost ATS in this spot.
➤The Bears were extremely turnover-friendly during the regular season, finishing +22, with 23 INT on defense, with 33 total takeaways and just 11 total turnovers on offense.
In the Super Bowl era, 26 teams, including this year’s Bears finished +22 in TO differential during the regular season, only four made the Super Bowl: 2000 Ravens, 1985 Bears, 1983 Redskins and 1981 49ers.
Chicago lost the TO battle 2-0 last week, with Caleb throwing 2 INT. Of those 25 previous teams, eight had 2+ TO in their first playoff game and none won outright, going 0-8 SU in those games.
➤Rams barely got by the 8-9 Panthers last week. We’ve seen three teams beat a team that was under .500 in the playoffs – two of those three teams lost their next playoff game outright:
2022-23 Cowboys (+3.5) lost 19-12 at 49ers
2020-21 Bucs (+2.5) won 30-20 at Saints
2010-11 Bears (+3.5) lost 21-14 vs. Packers
All three teams were listed as underdogs in their next game.
➤Teams after facing the Panthers are actually 12-4 ATS this season, tied for the 2nd-best mark in the NFL. Teams after facing the Panthers are above .500 ATS over the last three seasons, going 31-18 ATS in that span.
➤If the line gets up to +4 for the Bears, they would qualify for this stat:
Home dogs of 4+ pts are 9-0 ATS over the last 50 years in the playoffs.
➤Rams had a close call last week, winning by just 3 points as a 10-pt favorite. Bigger favorites to win in the playoffs on a close call have performed well in their next playoff game.
Favorites of 7 pts or more, who win outright by just one possession (8 pts or less) in the playoffs are 15-5 ATS in their next playoff game since 2003, including 14-4 ATS in the last 20 years of the playoffs.
➤When the Rams defense lets them down, they usually show up the next week, which impacts L.A.’s results. Under McVay and Stafford, Rams are 10-5 SU and 10-3-2 ATS the game after their defense allows 30+ pts, going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games in this spot.
➤Matthew Stafford has started 11 playoff games in his career; he is 6-5 SU and 6-5 ATS. In those 11 games, he’s only been a favorite four times, with his teams 4-0 SU and 1-3 ATS in those games.
Stafford’s 4-0 SU mark as a favorite in the playoffs is the most wins without a loss for any QB since 2000.
In true playoff road games, Stafford is 2-5 SU. At a neutral site or at home, Stafford is 4-0 SU as a starting QB, all with the Rams. With Sean McVay as his coach, Stafford is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in the playoffs.
➤The downside of Stafford’s career has been in the second half with a lead.
When his teams lead at the half, he is 39-72-2 (35%) against the 2nd half spread, including 13-29-1 2H ATS in this spot with the Rams.
In the playoffs, Stafford is 1-6 2H ATS after leading at the half, the worst mark of any QB since 2005.
➤Stafford has now thrown for 300+ passing yards in four straight road playoff games, which is the longest streak for any QB in NFL history, breaking Tom Brady and Drew Brees’ record against the Panthers last week.
➤This is just the second time Sean McVay has won a playoff game, but failed to cover the spread. The only other time this happened to McVay and the Rams was back in 2021-22, when L.A. beat the 49ers in the NFC Championship, but didn’t cover the spread. They then won the Super Bowl in their next game, also not covering the spread vs. Bengals
➤Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams both get it done in their first playoff game each, coming away with the outright win against their rival Packers.
Johnson and Williams were the 17th duo of coach-QB to both make their playoff debuts together since division realignment in 2002 – those new playoff duos are now 6-11 SU and 8-9 ATS in their first playoff game.
Johnson and Williams are the 6th to win and get a 2nd playoff game in their debut campaigns – the last three lost outright, with the 2009 Jets and 2008 Ravens, winning and advancing.
Of those five duos to get an outright win in their first playoff game, only one played at home in that second game: 2011 49ers, who lost outright vs. Giants as favorites.
➤The bounce back has never been easy. Since 2019, Bears are 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS in their game directly after facing the Packers.
- On 8 days rest or less after facing Green Bay, Chicago is 4-11 SU since 2015.
- In November or later after facing Green Bay, Chicago is 2-10 SU since 2015.
➤Caleb Williams became the 25th QB to win their first playoff start since 2002 – of the previous 23 QBs who started the next playoff game, they went 7-16 SU and 10-13 ATS. When that next playoff game is at home, they are 2-4 SU/ATS, with Brock Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo winning the last two instances, both for the 49ers.
➤Packers entered their last game vs. Bears on a 4-game losing streak before blowing a massive lead to Chicago and bowing out of the playoffs.
In the last 25 years, we’ve only seen two teams win a playoff game vs. a team on a 3+ game losing streak; both of those teams lost their next playoff game:
2024-25 Ravens lost to Bills after beating the Steelers
2016-17 Seahawks lost to Falcons after beating the Lions
➤This is simply a different Bears offense. They are 13-5 to their team total over this year, tied for the best mark in the NFL with the Jaguars …and of course, the Rams.
Combined, the Rams and Bears are 26-10 to their team total overs this season.
Rams went over their team total of 27.5 on the final, game-winning TD from Stafford to Colby Parkinson. L.A. is now 8-2 to their team total over on the road.
➤Rams under Sean McVay have been dominant favorites away from home. They are 39-10 SU as a road or neutral site favorite, winning those matchups by 8.6 PPG. When McVay is a road or neutral favorite of 3 pts or more, he is 32-6 SU – including 2-0 SU in the playoffs.
➤The Bears faced the Lions in Week 18 and the Packers last week. In Caleb Williams’ career as a starter for the Bears, he started 0-6 SU the game after facing an NFC North opponent – since that Week 2 loss to Detroit, Caleb is now 5-0 SU after facing an NFC North opponent, an improved bounce-back spot.
➤Ben Johnson is now 11-6-1 ATS as head coach of the Bears, profiting a $100 bettor $424 this year. That is currently the highest ATS mark for any Bears head coach since Mike Ditka, who was there btwn 1982-92 and ten games above .500 ATS.
Ben Johnson is the 1st Bears coach to win a playoff game in their first full season as head coach (Matt Nagy and Paddy Driscoll both lost outright).
➤Bears OG Joe Thuney has played 741 pass block snaps this season, 4th-most in the NFL – Thuney has yet to allow a sack. According to PFF, he owns the 4th-best pass block grade for any player this season.
After playing for the Patriots, Chiefs and now the Bears, Thuney also knows something about winning – in 160 regular season games, Thuney’s teams are 119-44 SU (73%) and in the playoffs his teams are 18-4 SU.
Referee Trends and Stats: Shawn Hochuli
2-0 SU in Bears home games and 0-3 SU when Bears are on the road as any type of official. He is 2-0 SU in Bears home games as a head official.
Since 2019, road teams are 59-54 SU with Shawn Hochuli, profiting a $100 bettor $1,166, a top-4 official of 23 total in that span. Since 2018, road teams are 70-54-3 ATS with Hochuli as head official.
Hochuli was the head official for the Rams 30-27 win in the 2021-22 playoffs in Tampa Bay.
The under is 71-54-3 when Shawn Hochuli is the head official, the 3rd-best mark of 54 referees since 2008.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Underdogs went 4-2 1H ATS in the Wild Card round, usually that trend continues into the Divisional Round.
Matches: Underdogs this week
System: After winning outright as an underdog, tough to pull the upset again on short rest.
Matches: SF
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System: Teams on a road trip in Seattle have not fared well historically. Seahawks are 4-0 SU in that spot this season and 8-1 SU over the last three seasons.
Matches: SEA
System: If the Broncos close as underdogs they would qualify for this system for teams that closed as big favorites in their previous game and changed roles to an underdog.
Matches: DEN
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System: High scoring teams have historically struggled to cover the spread later in the season. They are 2-5 ATS so far this season.
Matches: LAR
System: Rams/Bears game is expected to have high winds, which has historically leaned to the under.
Matches: LAR/CHI
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