Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown props for Week 10 on Sunday, November 9.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail these Week 10 TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of NFL Week 10.
NFL Week 10 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Browns vs Jets |
| Saints vs Panthers |
| Bills vs Dolphins |
| Jaguars vs Texans |
| Ravens vs Vikings |
| Patriots vs Buccaneers |
| Giants vs Bears |
| Cardinals vs Seahawks |
| Lions vs Commanders |
| Rams vs 49ers |
Browns vs. Jets
When betting TD scorers against the Jets, there was always a bit of hesitation when it comes to taking the the WR1 or RB1 because of CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams.
Well, with both of those guys gone after getting traded, it's open season for Browns TD scorers. I’m going with WR1 Jerry Jeudy.
Jeudy has played the most snaps, run the most routes and leads the team in targets against man coverage, which the Jets play at a top-six rate.
It remains to be seen if the Jets continue to play man defense as heavily with Gardner gone, but Jeudy has the most targets against man this season on the Browns, and he leads them in aDOT.
He could easily break out and win over the top against the Jets, who have allowed 15 passing TDs this season and have traded both of their starting cornerbacks.
It can be tricky betting on Jets passing TDs with QB Justin Fields, but one thing is for certain, he will target WR1 Garrett Wilson a lot!
Wilson's scored a TD in four of six games with Fields as the starter, and has four TDs against man defense, which the Browns play at a top-three rate.
Wilson nearly doubles the next Jets pass-catcher in targets per route run against man defense, and he could be in line for some deep targets since the Jets plays single-high safety at a top-three rate.
Verdict: Garrett Wilson +240 | Jerry Jeudy +320
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Saints vs. Panthers
Since his debut in Week 5, Panthers rookie WR Jimmy Horn Jr. leads the team in targets per route run, and he’s been the most-targeted against Cover 3 defense and single-high safety, which the Saints use each at a top-five rate.
So, why is he priced at +850?
That’s because he only runs a handful of routes each game with designed packages. So, if those don’t work, they stick with the main WR trio of Tet McMillan, Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker.
Still, Horn has been explosive when he touches the ball, and he’s even getting carries out of the backfield on key downs.
The Panthers clearly are making him a part of the game plan. So, let’s take him to score his first touchdown at +850.
If you’re like me and bet on QB Taysom Hill to score a TD in every game since he’s come back from injury, you can hold your hand up in shame with me!
Hill has only scored one TD this season in five games, but the Saints are clearly still trying to have him involved considering he had his highest snap count of the season in Week 9.
He’s also had four red-zone carries in five games, but the Saints just haven’t been near the red zone very often with their current QB issues.
At this price, I’m willing to overlook it, because despite the Panthers not allowing a lot of explosive run plays, they’ve still allowed 10 rushing TDs this season, surrendering five over the last two games.
He could also be a fixture in the passing game as well since the Saints traded away WR Rashid Shaheed.
Verdict: Taysom Hill +400 | Jimmy Horn Jr. +850
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Bills vs. Dolphins
My Touchdown Show brethren, Chris Raybon, is all over Bills RB James Cook in this one — he bet Cook for two touchdowns, but I don’t have the backbone to tail that bet.
Cook may score two TDs, but at +290, and the presence of QB Josh Allen lurking, it's a tight rope I don’t want to balance on.
Instead, I’m going with WR Khalil Shakir in this spot.
He leads the team with eight red-zone targets and led the Bills in receiving last week against the Chiefs, while also running the most routes.
Shakir scored against the Dolphins earlier this season; I think he can get another one in Miami.
I’m not sure I want to waste any more money on Dolphins TD scorers.
The top players — like RB De'Von Achane and WR Jaylen Waddle — are all steamed for TD bets, and once you get past those two, you really need to take a leap of faith.
The only Dolphin I’m showing value on to score this week is RB Ollie Gordon, and while he scored in their last matchup, it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be after leaving the last game with injury and limited practices this week.
If he’s active and ready to go, the data points to him since he’s much more effective running between the tackles than Achane, and the Bills run defense has been exploitable, with 12 rushing TDs allowed on the season.
Verdict: Khalil Shakir +200 | Ollie Gordon +525
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Jaguars vs. Texans
This one is shaping up to be a TD game for tight ends, or we see no scoring at all.
Since I don’t expect a repeat of what we saw in Week 4 when the Jags won 17-10, let’s bet some TE touchdowns.
For the Texans, we go back to TE Dalton Schultz at +300.
The Jags are 25th in defensive DVOA against TEs this season and have allowed 8 TDs to the position.
Schultz runs the second-most routes and has the second-highest target share for all Texans pass-catchers. With QB Davis Mills starting, I think he could lean on Schultz more as the safety blanket in this offense.
While the Texans have graded out better this season against TEs, they’ve also allowed 8 TDs to the position.
For the Jaguars, you’d think we should look at TE Hunter Long here, but I’m actually more intrigued by TE2 Johnny Mundt at +1100.
Since the Brenton Strange injury, Mundt hasn’t see many targets, but he technically has a higher targets per route run than Long and has more targets and catches overall against zone defenses than the TE1.
If you want to take Long here at +400, I get it, but his backup shouldn’t be +1100 in a favorable matchup.
Verdict: Dalton Schultz +300 | Johnny Mundt +1100
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Ravens vs. Vikings
With Lamar Jackson back, all Ravens pass-catchers get a bump, and two that immediately pop are TE Isaiah Likely and WR Rashod Bateman.
Last year, Likely and Bateman were awesome against zone coverage and two-high safety, with Bateman grabbing five TDs against zone coverages, while Likely was second on the team in targets per route run against two-high safeties.
It should be no shock that with Jackson back against the Dolphins, Bateman caught a TD, while Likely saw a season-high four targets and 60 receiving yards.
This is the Jordan Addison fan club here, and we will continue to keep betting on him to score a TD every week when he’s +200 or better.
WR Justin Jefferson may have gotten the most targets (nine) with JJ McCarthy at quarterback, but facing the Ravens this week, he may not get a lot of open windows.
That’s why I think McCarthy will need to air it out with Addison — he led the team in aDOT and air-yard share on only four targets in Week 9.
Verdict: Jordan Addison +210 | Isaiah Likely +350 | Rashod Bateman +350
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Patriots vs. Buccaneers
The Buccaneers defense is typically quite stout with DT Vita Vea. Unless you want to take Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson at +120, I’d rather pivot to QB Drake Maye’s favorite red-zone target: TE Hunter Henry.
The veteran has four TDs this season and leads the team in end-zone targets. When the Patriots inevitably get to the red zone, I trust Maye will look for Henry, especially since WR Kayshon Boutte is out.
With Bucs RB Bucky Irving still out, I think the player target is RB3 Sean Tucker, who should see an elevated role in Week 10.
In four games with Irving out, Tucker has six red-zone carries and two touchdowns.
I’m not high on the Bucs' passing game to be successful in this one with all the WR injuries they’ve sustained.
I expect them to lean on the run. This means Tucker will continue to get opportunities, and at +400 or better, that’s who I’d target.
Verdict: Hunter Henry +220 | Sean Tucker +475
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Giants vs. Bears
I know the Giants had some good vibes with the arrival of QB Jaxson Dart, but the defense is starting to crack badly.
The G-Men have given up eight passing TDs over the last three games as opposing offenses have started to exploit them. The Giants run man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL with the sixth-highest rate of single-high safety.
This lines up great for WR Rome Odunze, who has done well against man defense, but I’m going back to WR3 Olamide Zaccheaus at +325.
We got Zaccheaus last week at +400, and he finished with eight targets and a touchdown against the Bengals.
He’s also done well against both man defense and single-high coverage, as he’s second on the team behind Odunze in targets per route run against those defenses.
With the Giants ranking bottom five in targets, catches and yards to WRs this season, let’s run back Zaccheaus!
This is a bit of a “Cardio King” pick for the Giants, because he ran the second-most routes for them in Week 9 and only saw one target, but I’m intrigued by WR Ray-Ray McLoud III.
The Bears defense hasn’t really stopped anyone this year, especially wide receivers, as they’ve allowed the second-most TDs to the position (13) and the third-most passing TDs overall (20).
The odds are so steamed on WR Wan’Dale Robinson and WR Darius Slayton that I’d rather just pivot to the one who’s playing nearly the same amount but has over triple the odds.
Verdict: Olamide Zaccheaus +425 | Ray-Ray McLoud III +750
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Cardinals vs. Seahawks
At this point, Cardinals TE Trey McBride might be an auto-bet going forward.
We’ve waited a couple of seasons for him to emerge as a touchdown threat, and all it took was QB Jacoby Brissett to come in.
In three games with Brissett as the starter, McBride has four touchdowns to go with four end-zone targets in that span while leading the team with 32 targets overall.
I get facing the Seahawks is a huge challenge, as their pass defense is ranked second overall in defensive DVOA, but McBride is playing on another level, and he’s done well against zone and two-high safety looks, which the Seahawks run at the third-highest rate.
We rode with Seahawks TE2 Elijah Arroyo last week at +550, and he got his first score of the season against the Commanders.
Now, he only saw two targets, but he’s still second on the team with five red-zone targets, and the only reason why he doesn’t have six is because he scored a 22-yard TD.
When the Seahawks get to the red zone, they don’t target WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba nearly as much as they should.
So, if you want to take JSN, just know that he’s not the main target when Seattle gets into scoring range.
With the Cardinals being similar to the Seahawks in playing a lot of zone and two-high safety, this looks good for Arroyo as he’s second on the team in targets per route run against those coverages (only behind JSN).
Verdict: Trey McBride +210 | Elijah Arroyo +450
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Lions vs. Commanders
There are so many intriguing options for the Lions, but I think TE Sam LaPorta is the way to go.
The Commanders have allowed six TDs to TEs this year (tied for 31st), with four of those given up in just the last three games.
Washington’s pass defense uses man coverage and single-high safety at a top-10 rate, but it hasn’t seemed to be effective with 19 passing TDs allowed overall.
I know the Lions are on the road. I get the trepidation banking on offensive upside, but Detroit could score 40+ points here.
The Commanders have so many holes defensively, and I think with CB Marshon Lattimore injured, they may need to switch to a heavier zone scheme with two-high safety to keep WRs like Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown from beating them with the deep pass.
If they do, that bodes well for LaPorta, who has crushed those defense this season.
The Commanders offense should still be able to move the ball somewhat with QB Marcus Mariota, and with the Lions playing man coverage and single-high safety at a top-three rate, we go back to his rushing TD potential.
When Mariota is starting, his TD prop has to be on the table, especially if we’re getting over +500.
A quarterback has rushed for a TD against the Lions defense in two of the last three games, and Mariota scored a rushing TD in his first start in place of Jayden Daniels back in Week 3.
Verdict: Sam LaPorta +190 | Marcus Mariota +550
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Rams vs. 49ers
With the 49ers running on fumes from a personnel standpoint, WR Jauan Jennings still stands out as a solid option for a TD bet against the Rams.
Jennings is the 49ers' WR1, and while RB Christian McCaffrey will usually be the first and second option in this offense, I can’t ignore Jennings in this spot at +240, especially since the Rams are first in the NFL in opposing rushing TDs allowed (two) with only one receiving TD to a RB.
That means we pivot to Jennings, who caught a TD last week against the Giants and leads the team in end-zone targets.
Whether it's Mac Jones or Brock Purdy, it won’t really matter because Jennings' route participation and snap rate are the highest for any 49ers pass-catcher.
The Rams have played zone at the eighth-highest rate this season, and we’ve seen wide receivers have big games against them — like in Week 3 against the Eagles (three passing TDs allowed), or even when they faced each other a month ago.
Given the tough rushing matchup, stick to 49ers pass-catchers in this one.
I thought RB Kyren Williams was going to be closer to -135 to score a TD in this game since he’s been the lead back for most of the season and coming off a decent performance against the Saints.
Well, he’s plus-money this week. I don’t think we need to go any deeper.
Williams has three rushing TDs and three receiving TDs, and he scored twice the last time the Rams played the 49ers.
He’s top five in the NFL in carries inside of the 20-, 10- and five-yard lines. Don’t overthink it.
Verdict: Jauan Jennings +245 | Kyren Williams +110
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