The Houston Texans (10-5) and Los Angeles Chargers (11-4) face off today in NFL Week 17. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. The game will broadcast live on NFL Network.
The Chargers are 1.5-point favorites on the spread (Chargers -1.5; -105), with the over/under set at 40.5 points (-115o / -105u). Los Angeles is a -125 favorite on the moneyline, while Houston is +102 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Texans vs Chargers prediction for this Wild Card rematch.
Texans vs Chargers Predictions, Picks
- Texans vs Chargers pick: Texans +2 (-110)
My Texans vs Chargers best bet is on Houston to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Texans vs Chargers Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 40.5 -115o / -105u | +102 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 40.5 -115o / -105u | -125 |
Texans vs Chargers Week 17 Preview
The Texans played poorly last week but managed to escape with a win in a game that featured a rare strong effort from the Raiders.
Injuries are the main concern for the Texans right now, particularly at tackle. Trent Brown has been ruled out with ankle and knee injuries while Aireontae Ersery with a thumb injury. Brown is the better of the two, so that's a notable loss. Ersery has struggled and ranks 63rd out of 83 tackles; Houston will likely need to give him help off the edge.
Turning to the Chargers, last week felt like a get-right spot for them against Dallas.
The Cowboys allowed L.A.'s offense to get on track — but this matchup against Houston is a different beast. The Texans have an elite defense, maybe the best in the NFL; statistically, the Texans have allowed the fewest points in the league, while Dallas allows the second-most.
Before the Cowboys game, Justin Herbert had been getting sacked at a double-digit rate since Joe Alt went down in Week 10. Herbert's sack rates were consistently high, leading to multiple games with heavy pressure.
Suddenly against Dallas, he wasn’t sacked at all. Herbert threw for over 300 yards, two touchdowns, and completed 23-of-29 passes.
Prior to that game, Herbert's passing yardage totals were modest since Alt's injury, and he had thrown multiple touchdowns only once outside of that Dallas performance, aside from games against Tennessee and Las Vegas.
The Chargers' offensive line issues still matter here. We saw what happens when the Chargers struggle up front, and those issues will likely only become amplified against Houston. Last year in the playoffs, the Texans completely smashed the Chargers.
While the Chargers are slightly better at receiver this year, Houston’s corners are healthy. Jalen Pitre remains strong in the slot and is graded among the best at his position, with Kamari Lassiter and Derek Stingley Jr. also shoring up the secondary.
Overall, this sets up as a very good matchup for Houston.
Texans vs Chargers Predictions, Spread Betting Analysis
The Chargers feel slightly overrated. They beat the Raiders convincingly, but that was the game where Herbert first got hurt, and it wasn’t an especially clean performance.
Then, the Chargers got a fortunate overtime win against Philadelphia, needing multiple turnovers, and followed that with a win against Kansas City that likely goes the other way if Patrick Mahomes was playing. When Gardner Minshew entered that game, it was a brief spark followed by penalties, incompletions and turnovers.
Since the offensive line injuries, the Chargers were blown out by Jacksonville, beat the Raiders, picked up two lucky wins, and then blew out a Cowboys team with no defense.
Houston is simply the better team in this spot, and the matchup favors them.
The Texans offense was shaky last week, but Woody Marks returned to practice, which is significant. There is very little juice in the run game without him. Even if the rushing efficiency isn’t great, Marks adds value in the passing game and provides explosive play potential, which gives the offense more flexibility.
The Chargers want to lean into a more physical, run-heavy approach, but against Dallas, they were able to throw 29 times and put up 300 yards. That kind of efficiency only works against a handful of defenses, and Houston is statistically the best in the league.
There is some historical context worth noting. Road teams playing Saturday games have performed well against the spread, going 68-46 since 2004. C.J. Stroud has also covered at a strong rate as an underdog in his career.
Houston is the higher rated team overall, matches up well defensively, and should bounce back after a subpar performance last week. A lower scoring game is expected, something in the range of 20-17, with Houston well-positioned to cover as an underdog.
Pick: Texans +2 (-110)
Texans vs Chargers Spread Prediction
My Chargers vs Texans betting prediction is on Houston to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I'm taking the points with the Texans as opposed to targeting the moneyline.
Over/Under
No play on the total.
Texans v Chargers Betting Trends
Texans vs Chargers Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | SoFi Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 27 |
| Time: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | NFL Network |
For the latest on NFL injuries, be sure to check out our NFL Injury Report page.
