The Commanders (4-10) host the rival Eagles (9-5) tonight to open the Saturday NFL slate. Kickoff from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md., is set for 5 p.m. ET. Eagles vs Commanders will broadcast on FOX.
Eagles vs Commanders odds list the Commanders as +290 underdogs and Eagles -370 favorites on the moneyline. The over/under is 43.5 points. The Eagles are 7-point favorites on the spread (Eagles -7; -115).
Below, you can find our Eagles vs Commanders picks and best bets, which include two predictions for the spread and three props for Saquon Barkley (anytime touchdown), Ben Sinnott (receiving yards) and Frankie Luvu (tackles + assists).
Eagles vs Commanders Picks & Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 5 p.m. | |
| 5 p.m. | |
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| 5 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Eagles vs Commanders Odds, Lines
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -370 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +290 |
NFL odds via bet365
Eagles vs Commanders Spread Prediction: The Case for Washington
The Eagles continue to sit atop Action Network's luck rankings, week after week. They are coming off of a dismantling of the Raiders, and the Commanders are coming off of a win against the Giants.
The Commanders are one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL, coming in at 31st. They have a more successful passing attack than the Eagles, ranking 11th in dropback success rate, while the Eagles are 21st in dropback success rate.
Statistically, the Commanders' offense outpaces the Eagles', and that should be enough to keep this divisional game close.
Pick: Commanders +7 (+100); bet to +6.5
Eagles vs Commanders Spread Pick: The Case for Philadelphia
The Eagles dominated the lowly Raiders last week en route to an easy cover against the spread. Divisional matchups have the reputation of being played closely no matter the circumstances or records of each team, but Philly is in position to win with margin once again in this spot tonight.
The Commanders can't stop the run. Their defense is allowing 5.2 yards per carry over their past five games, and more importantly, their success rate allowed ranks 30th over that same span.
This means Jalen Hurts will have the luxury of always staying ahead of the sticks, and won’t be called upon to make throws to convert in long down-and-distance situations.
The Eagles defense is the unit that will play the run well in this game, as they have made improvements in their scheme even without Jalen Carter. Philly has surrendered just 3.7 yards per carry over the past two games.
Marcus Mariota’s passer rating is an abysmal 59.4 when pressured and the Eagles will have plenty of opportunities to get after him if the Commanders can't rush effectively.
A late turnover should secure a double-digit point victory for the defending Super Bowl champs.
Pick: Eagles -6.5 (-118)
Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Pick
By Sean Koerner
I'm going to do something crazy here — at least for me– and take somebody that has minus odds with Saquon Barkley (-120).
While Barkley's endured a down year, he has a really good schedule to close out the season. He also enters tonight's game with touchdowns in back-to-back games against the Chargers and Raiders. One of those scores came on a 52-yard scamper and the other near the goal line; he's starting to see touchdowns on plays that he would normally be phased out of.
I think he's trending up and this is a good matchup against the Commanders. I'm projecting Barkley anytime TD odds closer to -135.
Pick: Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown (-120)
Ben Sinnott Props: Receiving Yards
By Sean Koerner
Ben Sinnott is a tight end I was higher on entering last year’s draft, and the Commanders scooped him up in the 2nd round, which was a rough landing spot for him to produce as a rookie because they already had legendary TE Zach Ertz.
Ertz played ahead of budding young TEs like Dallas Goedert and Trey McBride, who I was also high on and patiently awaited their chance to step up down the road. Sure enough, Ertz had been healthy and started the first 30 games of Sinnott’s career.
However, Ertz tore his ACL in Week 14, so last week was the first time we’ve seen how the Commanders would handle their TE rotation without him.
I figured John Bates would operate as the lead TE, which he did with a 50% routes run rate, while Sinnott wasn’t too far behind at 38%. FB/TE hybrid Colson Yankoff had a 23% routes run rate, but he’s already been ruled out, which I think opens things up for Sinnott to see a bit more playing time today.
Sinnott only ran 10 routes last week because Marcus Mariota only dropped back to pass 26 times in their 29–21 win over the Giants. In what should be a more pass-heavy game script, I have Mariota dropping back around 10 more times today, which should allow Sinnott a few more chances to catch 1–2 passes.
I went back and watched all 10 of his routes closely and liked what I saw. Two of the routes ended in Mariota scrambles, so it’s unlikely Mariota continues scrambling on 20% of Sinnott’s routes going forward, which could open up additional target chances.
On a couple of routes, Sinnott was a bit hesitant and clearly made some mistakes that should get ironed out as he gets more reps. However, there were also a few plays where he was wide open and Mariota simply didn’t see him.
They must have noticed this on the sideline because late in the fourth quarter, Mariota finally hooked up with Sinnott for a wide-open 36-yard catch and run. I think they had chances for 1-2 similar plays earlier in the game. There was also a pass to the sideline that didn't get credited as a target, but Mariota was clearly looking Sinnott’s way when he threw it.
I think now is the perfect time to invest in the second-year player the market is likely overlooking. It’s obviously a brutal matchup against the Eagles.
If you recall, I faded Brock Bowers against them last week for that very reason, but Bowers was getting the Mitchell/DeJean treatment as the Raiders’ primary target. Sinnott shouldn’t get that same type of attention, and I think he could be higher up Mariota’s target pecking order today based on what I saw last week.
I’m projecting Sinnott closer to 15.5 receiving yards, with around a 59% chance to clear 11.5.
This isn’t a “mathy” data play. We’ve only seen Sinnott play one game without Ertz; this is more of a “this is the time to invest in a player I was high on” type of play.
Pick: Ben Sinnott Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Frankie Luvu Props: Tackles + Assists
By Sean Koerner
Frankie Luvu is a player I fade in this market from time to time.
While he’s an exciting player, part of that comes from him lining up as an edge rusher at one of the highest rates for a LB. Since Dorance Armstrong suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7, Luvu has lined up on the edge on just under 50% of his snaps.
That drastic shift in usage saw him average 5.7 tackles per game from Weeks 1-7, but that number has dropped to just 4.3 tackles per game from Weeks 8-15. He’s only cleared this number in 1-of-7 games (14%) since then. Lining up on the edge makes it much tougher for a LB to pick up consistent tackle opportunities.
This is a plus matchup for edge rushers, which he may be 50% of the time, but it’s the most brutal matchup for traditional LBs, as the Eagles have provided opposing LBs with the lowest rate of tackle opportunities. That makes this a tough spot for Luvu to clear this number.
I think his tackle rate could regress up slightly from the 4.3 rate we’ve seen since the usage shift, but either way, this number still feels a bit too high.
I’m projecting Luvu closer to 5.0 tackles, with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5.
Pick: Frankie Luvu Under 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-112)
