NFL Week 3 kicks off with the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football on Sept. 18. Dolphins vs Bills is scheduled to kick off at 8:15 p.m ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.
Below, you can find my Dolphins vs Bills prop picks for Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, Josh Allen and De'Von Achane.
Dolphins vs Bills Props
- Dalton Kincaid Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
- James Cook 3+ Receptions (+169 at DraftKings)
- Josh Allen Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts (+115 at bet365)
- De’Von Achane Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-105 at BetMGM)
For more Thursday Night Football picks, check out Sean Koerner's Dolphins vs Bills predictions for tonight!
Dolphins vs Bills Player Props, Preview
Dalton Kincaid Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
We’re now in Dalton Kincaid’s third season in the NFL and it feels like this might be the year he finally breaks out and cements his status as one of the elite tight ends in the league.
So far this season, he’s had double the number of receptions as rival Dawson Knox and has averaged a superior 10.6 yards per catch, racking up 85 yards in total.
For context, Kincaid ranks second in receptions on the Bills behind Keon Coleman and third in receiving yards behind Coleman and Josh Palmer.
Kincaid gets to face a Dolphins defense that has been terrible through the opening two weeks of the season. Crucially, they’ve struggled against tight ends, giving up 143 yards to the position at an average of 11.9 yards per catch.
Kincaid will have the opportunity; he has four receptions in each game so far this season. If he maintains that level of production, then he could easily clear 28.5 receiving yards.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
James Cook 3+ Receptions (+169)
It’s been a hell of a start to the season for James Cook — he's racked up 237 yards from scrimmage and is the standout player at his position so far. He’s been effective in the passing game, catching all six of his targets this season.
The only issue is that five of those receptions came in Week 1 and just one against the Jets last time out.
We should see him utilized more in the passing game on Thursday, especially given that the Dolphins have allowed 11 receptions to running backs through two games.
The Patriots' Rhamondre Stevenson caught five passes for 88 yards last week, while Jonathan Taylor managed three at an average of nine yards per reception in his opening game of the season.
Pick: James Cook 3+ Receptions (+169 at DraftKings)
Josh Allen Over 6.5 Rushing Attemps (+105)
Only the Cowboys have seen more QB rushing attempts than the Dolphins this season, and they now face one of the best QB runners in the league in Josh Allen.
The Dolphins haven’t been dreadful in terms of yards allowed to the position, but they have given up yards when it matters, as evidenced by them already allowing three rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks.
Allen only rushed six times against the Jets in a game they were comfortably safe and secure in, but he did carry the ball 14 times the week before against the Ravens.
Across last season, Allen rushed an average of 6.8 times per game and we could see another standout rushing performance on TNF.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts (+105 at BetMGM)
De'Von Achane Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards(+105)
For my final prop, I'm on De’Von Achane.
The Dolphins are likely to be chasing and therefore passing a lot in this game, but that might just allow opportunities for Achane to make chunk yardage plays on the ground. He’s had a rush longer than 14.5 yards in one of his two games this season, a strong 26-yard carry against the Colts in Week 1.
We saw Derrick Henry have a field day against the Bills in Week 1, and although Achane is a very different running back — with his speed and elusiveness — there’s no reason to think that he couldn’t find a wrinkle and exploit it, much like Henry did when ripping off a 49-yard run in that one.
Likewise, while no Jet had a run of 15+ yards against the Bills last week, it was very close with three players managing to hit either 12 or 13 yards for a longest rush.
Pick: De’Von Achane Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-105 at BetMGM)
