Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly so it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.
Below, you can find the AFC Championship Game pick I made for Patriots vs Broncos before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night. In addition, I touch on the NFC Championship Game — Rams vs Seahawks — and make a related future bet for the Super Bowl Conference Winner.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
AFC Championship Game Prediction
Patriots vs Broncos Spread Prediction
I'm doing something no one wants to do: Backing a Broncos team led by Jarrett Stidham following Bo Nix suffering an unfortunate season-ending ankle injury during the Divisional Round game against the Bills.
The Broncos were 1.5-point favorites on the lookahead line before the Nix injury — there's now been a 7-point swing with Stidham starting instead. I think that's an insane move and a massive drop-off that isn't warranted. I had this at Denver over a field goal before the injury.
The Patriots and Broncos are a bit fraudulent and fortunate to be in the AFC Championship Game. That said, Denver has the best unit in this game — its defense, which features elite pass pressure (we just saw the Patriots' O-line struggle against the Texans and Chargers) and great cornerbacks. The Broncos are No. 1 in limiting explosive plays — something will have to give against the Patriots' explosive offense led by Drake Maye.
If the Broncos limit big plays and keep things close, they have a shot.
I'll give the Patriots credit; their defense has looked good in the playoffs — but the Texans and Chargers have weak offensive lines. The Broncos have a top-3 O-line — that's a big swing in level of competition in the trenches.
The Patriots are bottom-5 in both red-zone offense and defense; the Broncos are top-5 in both red-zone offense and defense.
No. 1 seeds in Conference Championship games are 21-5 straight up (SU) since 2006, winning by 10.1 PPG, with a 24% ROI on the moneyline. That includes 12-3 SU vs. 2-seeds and 5-1 SU as anything under a FG favorite.
The Broncos become a version of the Steelers with Stidham at the helm. The offense is worse but the defense is still at great and they have home-field advantage.
Pick: Broncos +5.5 (-115; DraftKings
Super Bowl Future: Conference Winner
I don't have a pick for the NFC Championship Game at the time of writing, but I do know that this game features the two best teams remaining in the playoff field. Both Rams-Seahawks games in the regular season were great, and I already know that I'm going to like whoever wins this game in Super Bowl LX.
For the last couple months, the Rams and Seahawks have been swapping first and second in my power ratings. And they weren't just ahead, they were multiple tiers above everyone else — both at least three points better than any other team on a neutral site.
As for the AFC contenders, I have the Broncos and Patriots fringe top 10. I’d make either NFC team at least 7-point favorites against the Broncos and almost 6 against the Patriots.
This play is all the better if we think Denver is live to pull off the upset against New England and get Jarrett Stidham in the Super Bowl.
My math makes the NFC around a 6.5-point favorite and around -300 on the moneyline (~75%). There is still value on the NFC at -220 on DraftKings, an implied 69%.
Pick: NFC Winning Conference (-220; DraftKings)
Anderson's Early Conference Championship/Super Bowl Bets
- Broncos +5.5 (-115; DraftKings)
- NFC Winning Conference (-220; DraftKings)
