The SMU Mustangs (11-2, 8-0 ACC) take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2, 8-1 Big Ten) in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday, Dec. 21. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on TNT.
The College Football Playoff rolls into Beaver Stadium, as Penn State or SMU will advance to the Fiesta Bowl in the quarterfinals.
In the Mustangs' first season in the ACC, head coach Rhett Lashlee led SMU to an ACC Championship appearance and a road game in the playoff after winning 11 games in the regular season and going 8-0 in conference play.
On the other side, Penn State had finished in the top 12 of the final College Football Playoff rankings in 6 of the past 8 seasons but never received a semifinal birth. While head coach James Franklin was not successful in beating Oregon for a Big Ten title, the Nittany Lions will host their first-ever playoff game.
The point spread has remained in a dead number range since open, with Penn State entering as a -8.5 favorite. The over/under has seen minimal climb from an open of 52.5 to 54, as the weather forecast continues to move toward snowy conditions.
Let's dive into my SMU vs. Penn State predictions and college football picks for their College Football Playoff game on Saturday, Dec. 21.
SMU Mustangs vs Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction, Picks
- SMU vs. Penn State Pick: Penn State -8.5
My Penn State vs. SMU best bet is on the Nittany Lions to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
SMU vs Penn State Odds, Lines, Spread
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 52.5 -108o / -112u | +270 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 52.5 -108o / -112u | -340 |
- SMU vs Penn State Spread: Penn State -9, SMU +9
- SMU vs Penn State Over/Under: 52.5
- SMU vs Penn State Moneyline: Penn State ML -340, SMU ML +270
SMU vs Penn State CFP 1st Round Betting Preview
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
Running back Brashard Smith has been everything to the SMU offense, as Lashlee's rush-heavy scheme uses inside zone on 70% of attempts. The difference in Line Yards versus highlight yards illustrates that Smith has done the heavy lifting.
The offensive line enters the playoff game ranked 90th in Line Yards with a team Rushing Success Rate of 72nd. Smith has created 47 missed tackles this season while averaging 3.4 yards after first contact.
A Stuff Rate rank of 77th has continued to hamper SMU in short-yardage situations, as the Mustangs rely on the Miami transfer running back to generate explosives.
#SMU RB Brashard Smith has been awesome this season
Proud to have him lead my Mustangs to the Playoff@BrashardSpic.twitter.com/dZx5ClVaNA
— Hail Mary Sports (@hailmarysportss) December 14, 2024
With one of the worse strength of schedules of any team in the playoff, the SMU defense has thrived as a top-25 unit in nearly every category.
Coordinator Scott Symons' nickel defense will throw plenty of different looks at an offense, running a heavy amount of 2-4-5 with a mix of 3-3-5 and a 1-5-5 on 16% of snaps.
SMU has been fantastic against all run concepts from their opponents, averaging a high 57% Success Rate up to 62% against power, man, counter and zone read.
Outside linebacker Elijah Roberts has been the biggest contributor to a top-15 Havoc defense, creating 55 pressures and 43 quarterback hurries this season.
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview
There was no issue in offensive continuity against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship game. Penn State averaged seven yards per play with a whopping 64% Success Rate on 34 rushing attempts while generating two or more first downs on 7-of-12 possessions.
The Penn State rushing attack was sluggish midseason but has found a second wind in the late part of the season.
Nicholas Singleton has bumped his yards-after-first-contact average in nearly every game over the second half of the season, averaging 5.7 yards after contact against the Ducks on 11 rushing attempts.
Nick Singleton is DANGEROUS#WeAre | #RatedProspect
— The Draft Network (@TheDraftNetwork) December 8, 2024
Penn State continues to field an elite defense despite the change in coordinators.
Former Indiana head coach Tom Allen's nickel defense sends blitz on 37% of snaps, creating a high 59% Success Rate in terms of generating pressure on the quarterback.
The secondary has been fantastic in creating tight windows for opposing quarterbacks, ranking 17th in creating contested catches. The numbers don't fall off against the rush, ranking fourth in Line Yards and third in Defensive Stuff Rate.
While the overall tackle grading fell to 50th this season, the Nittany Lions have been excellent in space with a rank of 36th in broken tackles allowed.
Linebacker Kobe King has been crucial in keeping running backs from reaching the second level, leading Penn State in stops with the ninth-best individual run defense grade of all linebackers, per PFF.
Penn State vs SMU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Penn State and SMU match up statistically:
SMU Offense vs. Penn State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 72 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 90 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 41 | 27 | |
| Havoc | 55 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 18 | 25 | |
| Quality Drives | 38 | 17 | |
Penn State Offense vs. SMU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 23 | |
| Line Yards | 17 | 14 |  |
| Pass Success | 3 | 24 | |
| Havoc | 12 | 14 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 9 | |
| Quality Drives | 5 | 9 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 25 | 50 |
| PFF Coverage | 23 | 21 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 52 | 70 |
| Middle 8 | 16 | 8 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.7 (7) | 26.0 (51) |
| Rush Rate | 58% (49) | 58% (34) |
How to Bet My SMU vs Penn State Pick
There's no expectation that SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings will improve on a Passing Success Rate number that sits outside the top 40 against the Penn State defense.
This puts a critical handicap on the production of Smith against the Nittany Lions' run defense.
Penn State has a respectable 55% Success Rate against the inside zone read concept SMU will utilize, but it's the limitation of explosives that will be key. Penn State has allowed just one of every 20 rushing attempts using inside zone to create an explosive run.
The biggest advantage in this game could come in the offensive game plan of Penn State coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. SMU has been prone to teams using tight ends to create first downs, signaling Tyler Warren could have a day from a props perspective.
When playing SMU, Clemson, Virginia and Boston College all targeted their tight ends at a higher rate than normal, including Clemson with eight targets and Virginia with five. The biggest proponent of tight end usage was Boston College, going to tight ends on 16 targets with 12 catches against the SMU defense.
With 112 targets on the season, expect Warren to be a candidate for every third down and red-zone conversion.
The Mustangs do produce a heavy pass rush, ranking 15th in creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
If there's one area of struggle for the Nittany Lions, it's the protection of quarterback Drew Allar. Penn State ranks 84th in pass blocking, as Allar has seen 114 pressures in 374 dropbacks this season.
There may be no better marker on whether or not a quarterback is ready for the NFL than what he produces under pressure. Well, the junior has made a case that he belongs high on the draft board next spring.
Allar has produced zero turnover-worthy plays to nine big-time throws in 114 pressured pockets, so SMU blitz attempts may be fruitless.
The deck is stacked against SMU, as the run concept used by Smith and the Pony Express will fail to create explosives against Penn State. The Havoc-minded nickel defense excels in creating chaos, signaling there will be further issues for a Mustangs team that's 83rd in offensive momentum killer.
One contributing factor to the low momentum number is the involvement of the officials, as SMU ranks 131st in penalties this season.
Action Network projects Penn State as a 9-point favorite. There's reason to believe Singleton will continue to create explosive runs after first contact, while heavy advantages exist for Warren against the Mustangs defense.
Considering Allar has yet to make a mistake in a crowded pocket, this will be a cover by the home team in the College Football Playoff.
Pick: Penn State -8.5 or Better
SMU vs Penn State Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Beaver Stadium, State College, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | TNT |
SMU takes on Penn State in the first round of the College Football Playoff in State College on Saturday, Dec. 21 at 12 p.m. ET on TNT.
SMU vs Penn State Betting Trends
SMU vs Penn State Weather
