With each of the nine college football conference championship games this weekend boasting a spread of less than a touchdown, we're in for an incredible Championship Week.
Action Network's Mike Calabrese is looking to take advantage of these expectedly close games, as well as a number of other trends, when he dishes out his top college football props and exotics for this week's conference championships.
So, whether you're looking for an anytime touchdown scorer play, a double result, an opening drive parlay or even an overtime Round Robin, we have you covered.
Check out Calabrese's college football props and exotics for these Week 15 conference championship games below.
Championship Week Overtime Round Robin
For the first time in FBS history, every title game has a spread within six points. What that signals to me is the potential for some free football.
Now, identifying which of the nine title bouts may go to overtime can be tricky, but this is where the Round Robin proves its worth.
First off, let me remind bettors to shop around. Exotics like the overtime market are not uniformly priced. I’ve seen some games this weekend priced by sportsbooks to go to overtime in the +850/+900 range. At that price, this Round Robin doesn’t move the needle all that much for me.
But with a little digging, I was pleased to discover that FanDuel is offering every single conference championship overtime “Yes” between +1300 and +1500. With “Yes” prices like these, I can’t say no.
When you place a nine-game Round Robin by twos, what that means is you’re placing 36 two-leg parlays. So in the interest of clarity, if you want to place a $1 Round Robin on this bet, it will run you $36.
If none of the games go to OT, you’re out $36. If one of the games goes to OT, you’re still out all 36 bucks. The name of the game is getting two or more, and once you get into that green zone of two or more, the payouts are substantial.
Here’s a hypothetical to help illustrate how things could shake out. If the AAC Championship between Tulane and Army goes to OT on Friday (+1500) and the SEC Championship between Texas and Georgia follows suit (+1500) the following day, you’re hitting a two-leg parlay and turning that $1 bet into $255.
If you tack on one more winner, however, things start to snowball.
Let’s say after the AAC and SEC require overtime periods, we get a tie score at the end of regulation in the ACC Championship game as well (+1400). In that case, we’re not just adding another parlay winner, we’re actually adding two more hits.
- AAC + SEC = $255
- AAC + ACC = $239
- SEC + ACC = $239
- Returns = $733
As for the bet itself, I actually love the teams involved from an OT perspective.
Army is interested in shrinking the game, playing keep-away, and winning a low-scoring affair with Tulane. The Cadets are first in time of possession and rank top-five in Rushing Success, Line Yards, Stuff Rate and Quality Drives.
This is the perfect kind of underdog to force overtime, something Army has done three times since 2021.
UNLV and Boise are no strangers to close games this season either. The Rebels took Syracuse to OT back in early October, and have four games on their résumé determined by five points or less.
Boise State has also been involved in four one-score decisions this season, including its lone loss. Had Oregon missed its walk-off field goal, there would have been overtime in Eugene.
Boise captured the nation’s imagination with their overtime upset of Oklahoma 17 years ago in the Fiesta Bowl and has sweated it out in overtime four times since 2017.
As for the rest of the teams involved in title games this weekend, we have three that have played in OT this season (Georgia, SMU and Penn State), a pair that have played in multiple OTs in the past three years (Clemson and Texas) and a trio that seems to have an OT aversion (Arizona State, Iowa State, Oregon).
I will say, in terms of overtime vibes, the Big 12 takes the cake with three OTs in its title game history in 1998, 2019 and 2022 — roughly 14% of its total title bouts.
It wasn’t until 2011 that all five power conferences hosted title games, so have we even seen multiple OTs during championship weekend before? I’m glad you asked.
In 2012, Conference USA and the MAC produced OTs.
Northern Illinois outlasted Kent State in double OT behind a four-touchdown performance from MAC legend Jordan Lynch. That win punched the Huskies a ticket to the Orange Bowl.
The following day, Tulsa and UCF ended regulation knotted at 27 apiece. The Golden Hurricane would block a UCF field goal in the OT period and punch in a rushing touchdown to win the CUSA belt five plays later.
We got close with two others on that Saturday, as Alabama edged Georgia by four and Stanford slipped past UCLA by three.
Double Result: UNLV 1H, Boise State Full Game (+700)
Both the Rebels and Broncos’ defenses achieved major goals in their first meeting back in October.
UNLV held Ashton Jeanty to 3.9 yards per carry while wounding Boise’s Heisman hopeful.
The “Boise Blitz” was equally successful in terms of its top priority, which was harassing Hajj-Malik Williams. The Broncos sacked HMW six times and forced him into two turnover-worthy plays.
But a few things have changed since their regular-season meeting. UNLV has gotten stronger in the first half of games, while Boise has saved its best for the second half.
Despite facing a very manageable schedule down the stretch, the Broncos entered the locker room tied with Nevada, San José State and Wyoming in recent weeks.
In crunch time, its offense — namely Jeanty — has delivered.
In the past month, UNLV has led at the break three times, blowing SDSU and Nevada out of the water with 52 first-half points in those two contests.
A big reason for this has been the continued maturation of HMW and Brennan Marion’s ingenious game plans.
Williams can morph into a de-facto option quarterback when needed, as he did against Hawaii and Nevada in recent games. He eclipsed the century mark on the ground and found the end zone as well against the Rainbow Warriors and Wolf Pack.
And when he’s pushing the ball downfield, he’s connecting on 65% of his attempts or better on five occasions. He's the better quarterback in this matchup.
Marion will have a scripted series or two ready to go, full of answers for all of the Boise blitzes that the Broncos put on tape in their first meeting.
There’s also the potential for Boise to play a bit tight given the circumstances. Win, and it's finally in the College Football Playoff. Once it settles in, playing on its home field becomes a decided advantage, but I’m not sure it’s one that's appreciable in the early going.
For that reason, I like UNLV to grab an early lead before its defense wilts in the second half — just as it did against Syracuse early this season.
A +700 payout for a completely reasonable game script feels more than generous.
Opening Drives Parlay: Ohio Punt, Miami (OH) FG Attempt
+850 · Play to +700
The RedHawks have a reliable identity. They play great defense, great special teams and do just enough to squeeze out wins in the MAC… a lot of wins.
Miami (OH) is on the verge of back-to-back titles, something that hasn’t been done in this conference in over a decade. While it has taken a baby step back on defense and in the kicking game, it's still elite by MAC standards.
The RedHawks rank 11th in Pass Defense Success Rate, 12th in Quality Drives surrendered and first nationally in big plays surrendered.
The special teams advantage in this particular game says more about Ohio’s struggles than Miami’s mastery. The RedHawks, without the services of Graham Nicholson, finished 42nd in special teams this season, per SP+. Where did Ohio finish? 112th.
So, here’s how I see things starting in Detroit. Ohio is going to be forced to punt because, well, that’s what Miami (OH) forces teams to do. In the past month, the RedHawks forced their four MAC opponents to punt it a whopping 25 times while allowing a third-down conversion just 35% of the time.
How has Ohio fared on its opening drives in MAC play? Here’s the rundown: Punt, FG, Punt, INT, FG, Punt, Punt, TD. Given how soft the schedule was, this just goes to show that the Bobcats are far from a microwave offense. Instead, they take time to warm up.
And in the Bobcats’ meeting with Miami (OH), they went three-and-out and punted it away.
The hard part of this is nailing the second leg, which is the Miami (OH) field-goal attempt — but we have a few things going in our favor here.
The first is that the RedHawks attempted and made the most field goals in MAC play this fall. Dom Dzioban is a trusted weapon, and if they get to Ohio’s 37-yard line, they’re giving him a shot kicking inside Ford Field.
The second factor to consider is how well Brett Gabbert has been playing of late and how Miami (OH) offensive coordinator Pat Welsh has been successfully scripting opening drives.
Against two quality MAC opponents in the past two weeks (NIU, BGSU), the RedHawks walked away with a field-goal attempt and drove the ball to midfield before a deep shot was intercepted by Bowling Green.
For what it’s worth, I thought they could have called pass interference on that play, which would have put them in field-goal range immediately.
One last tidbit on this opening-drive parlay: Miami (OH) head coach Chuck Martin loves settling for field goals in the red zone; it’s kind of his thing. Miami’s FG percentage in the red zone is 41% (3rd) after finishing second last season.
This is sitting in the market at +850, and I would play it down to +700.
SMU Defensive Touchdown + SMU -9.5
+1000 at FanDuel
The Mustangs have four defensive touchdowns to their name this season. Two pick-sixes and two scoop-and-scores have gone their way.
Now, you can view those as fluky events, or you can credit a defense that finished 23rd in both takeaways and PFF coverage grade, 15th in pass rush, 14th in Havoc and first in pressures generated by their defensive line.
In short, this defense gets on its opponents.
You know who still struggles a bit with defensive pressure? Cade Klubnik.
Yes, Klubnik had a bounce-back junior season and has the Tigers on the cusp of sneaking into the CFP. But when he’s drawn nasty defensive fronts, he’s turned the ball over both through the air and on the ground.
Klubnik has fumbled seven times this season and thrown an interception against three of the four top-30 defenses he faced (UGA, South Carolina and Virginia Tech).
Now we have SMU and its hyper-disruptive front ready to get into his face. This could be trouble for Klubnik.
One quick aside: Clemson has also surrendered a touchdown off a blocked field goal. Some sportsbooks count this as a defensive touchdown, but it’s important to read the fine print.
On its own, an SMU defensive score at any time against Clemson pays out in the +600 neighborhood. Tagging on the alternate line of SMU -9.5, moves that up to +1000. Given that these are correlated events, I think it’s a fair parlay payout.
I’m also on SMU to drop the hammer on a Clemson team that hasn’t convincingly beaten a bowl team all season long. Even its wins over Virginia Tech and Pitt came by 10 and four points, respectively.
SMU has been obliterating teams in the past month, yet it's still not getting love in the market. That will change with a resounding win on Saturday night.
Arch Manning 2+ Touchdowns
+4600 at Unibet
With Quinn Ewers' high-ankle sprain still a concern, I believe we’ll see Arch Manning in multiple rushing packages against Georgia.
That could lead to red-zone, goal-to-go carries for Manning. This is to say nothing of the possibility of Ewers being pulled just as he was in the Longhorns' first meeting with Georgia during the regular season.
Speaking of their first meeting, these two teams have gone in opposite directions since Georgia’s 30-15 win over UT in Austin on Oct. 19.
After building out a 23-0 lead, Georgia hit cruise control in that game and never really found its groove again.
With the exception of a dominant second quarter against Tennessee, the Bulldogs haven’t played at an elite level for a sustained period of time since.
They “played with their food” against Florida, finding themselves in a tie game with under five minutes remaining. Then they got drilled, 28-10, by Ole Miss. And then they nearly allowed themselves to get upset at home against Georgia Tech.
Had the officials not missed a targeting call on Dan Jackson, Georgia would have likely lost instead of using eight overtimes to steal a victory from the in-state Yellow Jackets.
Texas, meanwhile, has been playing suffocating defense of late. It's the only team in the country with a top-five coverage and pass-rush grade. No one is generating quality drives against it (1st), and Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has become a liability with 18 turnover-worthy plays this season.
I think there’s a real chance Texas’ defense creates three-plus turnovers and this game turns into a runaway. And if that happens, we’ll see even more Manning as the Longhorns look to protect Ewers’ gimpy ankle.
I was expecting to see this number in the +3000/+3500 range, so anything over +4000 is worth a flyer.
