In the nightcap of the first round of the College Football Playoff, the Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) will head to Columbus to battle the Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2).
In this 8-vs-9 matchup, both teams will enter with identical 10-2 records. These powerhouse programs rank as the thirdthird and tenth-winningest in college football history, respectively.
The winner will advance to take on Oregon in the Rose Bowl in the quarterfinals.
The Buckeyes are favorites to advance as a touchdown favorite at home with a 46.5-point over/under.
Let's dive into my College Football Playoff picks, predictions and same-game parlay for Tennessee vs. Ohio State.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -120 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -102 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
- Spread: Tennessee +7.5 (-120), Ohio State -7.5 (-102)
- Over/Under: 46.5 (-110/-110)
- Moneyline: Tennessee +210, Ohio State -260
Tennessee vs. Ohio State Picks, Predictions, Same-Game Parlay
- Tennessee +10.5 (-164)
- Under 49.5 Points (-162)
- Dylan Sampson Over 92.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Jeremiah Smith Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Parlay Odds: +795 (FanDuel)
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Spread: Tennessee +10.5 (-164)
In the first home playoff game in The Horseshoe, expect a raucous atmosphere in Columbus.
Ohio State has a more experienced quarterback in Will Howard than Tennessee's Nico Iamaleava. Though with 13 starts, some would say Iamaleava is no longer a redshirt freshman.
While younger, Iamaleava is the more physically gifted quarterback in this game. He has been better at protecting the ball than Howard, with three fewer interceptions entering this game.
If Iamaleava can limit his mistakes while connecting on a deep ball or two (likely to Dont'e Thornton Jr.), then Tennessee will hang around in this game.
However, I mainly like Tennessee in this matchup because of their defensive line.
James Pearce Jr. once again led the Volunteers with 7.5 sacks, totaling 17 over the last two years. Meanwhile, seniors Omari Thomas, Bryson Eason, Elijah Simmons and Omarr Norman-Lott have played much football in their careers, forming a stout rotation on the interior. The group has helped Tennessee rank ninth in the FBS in rushing yards allowed (99.6) per game.
Meanwhile, Ohio State has averaged just 142.6 rushing yards per game over its last five games despite having one of the nation's best running back duos in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. The Buckeyes ran for just 77 yards against Michigan.
They have lost left tackle Josh Simmons and center Seth McLaughlin for the season. Even with them, the offensive line was one of the question marks for the Buckeyes this season.
While rivalry games can sometimes defy logic, Tennessee's defensive line will have an advantage over Ohio State's offensive line, as Michigan did.
If Ohio State becomes one-dimensional, it will likely not win this game by two possessions, affecting the next leg of this parlay.
Total: Under 49.5 (-162)
As mentioned, Tennessee's defense is stout.
The Volunteers rank fifth in the FBS in scoring defense, surrendering just 13.9 points per game. They have given up 20 points just twice this season.
However, scoring on the Buckeyes will not be easy either.
Ohio State leads the nation in scoring defense (10.9 points per game). It has only given up over 20 points once all season, including holding fellow CFP participants Penn State and Indiana to 13 and 15 points, respectively.
With two top-five scoring defenses, squaring off points will be at a premium.
For this parlay, I am moving the total back a few points to get under a key number of 49. However, that may not be necessary, as seven of Ohio State's last nine games have stayed under the closing total.
Tennessee Player Prop: Dylan Sampson Over 92.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
If Tennessee is going to pull off an upset Saturday night, it will likely need a big game from running back Dylan Sampson.
After running for 1,000 yards combined in his first two seasons, Sampson has run for 1,485 yards on 5.8 yards per carry, with at least 93 yards in 10 of 12 games this season. In the two games he went under, he finished with 92 yards against Oklahoma and 77 in a blowout against UTEP.
Sampson ran for 100 yards in every game when going over this line. That includes games against Kentucky, Georgia and Alabama, which all have top 40 defenses this season.
Sampson will see another top-ranked defense on Saturday. Ohio State ranks eighth in the FBS in rushing yards allowed, allowing 96.8 per game.
However, it did give up 115 to Oregon's Jordan James and 116 to Michigan's Kalel Mullings. Indiana's duo of Ty Son Lawton and Justice Ellison combined for 141 as well. James and Mullings had over 20 carries in those games, while Lawton and Ellison had 32 combined.
Sampson has nine games with 20 carries or more this season. With his usual workload, he should clear this line once again.
Ohio State Player Prop: Jeremiah Smith Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Ohio State has become one of college football's premier destinations for wide receivers, and Jeremiah Smith has shown that this will not change anytime soon.
As a true freshman, Smith has 57 receptions for 934 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has already set school records in all categories.
If he clears this line, Smith will be the first Ohio State freshman with 1,000 receiving yards as well. He has done so in nine of 12 games this season, a remarkable hit rate for a true freshman.
Tennessee has a top-20 pass defense, allowing 178.7 passing yards per game.
However, if their defensive line limits Henderson and Judkins as I expect, Ohio State will have to throw more. That should lead to more targets for Smith.
Even in a deep receiver room, Smith has emerged as the team's WR1 and should earn enough targets to clear 70 yards again.
