The Fun Belt is all the way back in 2025.
Action Network expert and "Big Bets on Campus" host Collin Wilson jumped in to preview what the conference will look like this season and dish out his top plays.
From the conference's top dog, James Madison, to the lowest on the totem pole in Georgia State, Wilson has you covered for win totals and futures bets in the Sun Belt.
With that, let's dive into our 2025 Sun Belt Preview and college football picks for the upcoming NCAAF season.
2025 Sun Belt Conference Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| James Madison | +290 |
| Texas State | +700 |
| Louisiana | +700 |
| South Alabama | +700 |
| Georgia Southern | +700 |
| Old Dominion | +800 |
| Southern Miss | +1400 |
| Troy | +1600 |
| Coastal Carolina | +2000 |
| Appalachian State | +2000 |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | +2500 |
| UL Monroe | +3000 |
| Marshall | +3000 |
| Georgia State | +5000 |
All odds via DraftKings as of Thursday, July 31.
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Sun Belt East Division
What stands out right away when talking about James Madison is the quarterback depth, something that often flies under the radar but is huge at the Group of Five level.
We’re not just talking about Matthew Sluka here — there’s more talent behind him, and that’s critical.
The wear and tear these teams face throughout the season, especially when going up against Power 4 programs with stronger lines and secondary units, is brutal. By midseason, you often see backups who’ve barely played meaningful snaps before. So, having that depth at quarterback is a massive asset.
That means getting Alonzo Barnett back is big. He has already picked up some watch list and award chatter, and his return from injury would be a big boost for head coach Bob Chesney and Co.
We also can’t overlook Camden Coleman, the third-stringer who terrorized defenses at Richmond. So, James Madison’s QB situation isn’t just solid; it’s a big reason why I’m projecting its win total at 9.3, which is above the market.
Defensively, less than half of the Dukes' unit is back this year, and they’re missing some disruptive players. But they still return Jacob Thomas at safety, plus three entities that accounted for two all-conference honors in the secondary. That group could very well be the best secondary in the conference.
The defensive line has some question marks. Any time they face a team with a heavy rush attack, I do have a bit of concern because they might struggle, but it’s nothing that wrecks my overall confidence.
Looking at their schedule, it’s pretty favorable. In the East Division, James Madison gets Georgia Southern, Old Dominion and Appalachian State all at home in Harrisonburg. That alone is huge since those are the three best teams in the division.
They also host Louisiana from the West Division and have to travel to Texas State, but overall, they’re built to beat all these teams.
I’m fully expecting James Madison to win the East Division. Odds-wise, there are a couple of books offering +110 to win the East, which feels like a solid bet to me. And if you want to go long on a 3-1 shot to win the whole conference, I’ve already got some skin in that game.
Bottom line: James Madison’s QB depth, favorable schedule and solid overall roster set them up to have a big season. They’re the team to watch in the East.
Pick: James Madison to Win East Division (+110) · James Madison to Win Sun Belt (+325)
I’m bullish on Old Dominion this season, but when it comes to putting real money on them, I’m holding back a bit.
A quick look at last year shows seven losses, all by just one possession. That kind of close margin naturally grabs the attention of those who crunch second-order win totals, painting Old Dominion as a team on the rise.
I actually set their win total around 6.5, so naturally, you’d expect me to jump on over 5.5 wins. But honestly? I just can't lay the juice at -200.
Can books just keep the line at a half-game and take a little less juice off the table? It’d make betting a lot more enticing. As we edge toward late August, sometimes you see alternative totals pop up. I’m more comfortable waiting for a 6-win line at a fair price than locking in at 5.5 with that heavy juice.
Now, diving into the team itself, Old Dominion offensive coordinator Kevin Decker loves Finishing Drives — they ranked fourth nationally in that category last year. When they crossed the 40-yard line, they scored touchdowns.
However, the Monarchs ranked 119th in quality drives, meaning they rarely even got to the 40. So, while they cash in on the few good opportunities, those chances were pretty scarce.
Quarterback Colton Joseph is back, and while everyone’s hyped about his 11:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, he had six big-time throws and 20 turnover-worthy plays. What’s stranger is that the number of turnover-worthy plays he made in a clean pocket was nearly the same as when he was blitzed, which raises some red flags.
That said, there’s no ignoring what he did, racking up 11 touchdowns, plus 19 missed tackles forced. Yet, fumbles were also a problem.
Old Dominion won’t really challenge a James Madison-level team unless some of those sloppy mistakes get ironed out.
On the receiving end, there’s zero experience returning this year, so they’re bringing in some JUCO players to fill gaps.
Defensively, linebacker Jason Henderson joins fresh off a decent 2023 season with 93 tackles and 24 pressures, which should help a defense that’s otherwise pretty shaky.
The secondary might actually be the worst unit in the entire Sun Belt, which is a definite worry.
And then there’s their brutal schedule — back-to-back games against Coastal Carolina and Marshall, both coming off byes, followed by two straight road games, including a tough trip to James Madison.
Overall, I like the over on their win total, but I’m not sold on betting on a team that tends to be sloppy with the football.
I’ll pass for now. If a 6-win line drops at a reasonable price, I'll consider jumping in, but this would be a low-volume play for me.
Pick: Old Dominion Alt. Win Total Over 6 (Low Volume)
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JC French caught my eye early last year. Then, once some info got out and opponents started adjusting their coverage, he kind of faded off the map. Right now, I’m sitting with Georgia Southern at about 6.6 wins, so under 7.5 feels like a solid play.
First off, Georgia Southern might just have the best QB/RB/WR trio in the Sun Belt.
French had a 17:17 touchdown-to-interception ratio before the bowl game against Sam Houston, and their offensive line has 79 returning starts, which is more than any other team in the Sun Belt.
That’s huge at this level since, unlike the SEC or Big Ten where a blue-chip five-star can slot in and play right away, the Group of Five teams rely heavily on returning experience, especially upfront.
Josh Dallas is another reason this offense looks dangerous after averaging 2.1 yards per route run. That kind of efficiency means this unit is no joke, and defenses around the league should be wary.
Now, on defense, Georgia Southern is in an unusual spot. Usually, these teams are light on secondary experience and might have some seniority up front. But it’s flipped here. They have one of the best secondaries in the Sun Belt with their starting strong safety and two returning cornerbacks all set to contribute.
On the flip side, the front seven is full of question marks.
Remember last year’s game against Boise State? Ashton Jeanty racked up 267 yards and six touchdowns en route to a 56-45 win for the Broncos.
The same dynamic might replay here — expect plenty of rushing yards allowed.
Offensively, Georgia Southern has to keep up, which it can do. But I’m cautious about projecting the Eagles as a serious contender in the Sun Belt East or making waves in the division since they’re projected as a two-touchdown underdog against James Madison.
That Arkansas State game from the West is a nice bonus, but looking at their schedule overall, I’m not seeing eight wins here. Going out to Fresno State will be tough and then back-to-back West Coast trips, including USC’s improved defense? That’s a rough stretch. I’d be surprised if they start better than 1-2.
If you want to hedge on the under 7.5 wins play, look at Week 3 against Jacksonville State. I’m not convinced Jacksonville State is much of a threat, but it might be the spot where you can find value against the under.
Bottom line, I like the under 7.5 wins for Georgia Southern enough to bet it. The body of work just points that way.
Pick: Georgia Southern Under 7.5 Wins
This Coastal Carolina team could be in trouble.
I keep thinking back to the Jamey Chadwell and Grayson McCall days — those were some good times.
Take MJ Morris, their transfer quarterback from Maryland. Sure, it's a positive he's got 69 offensive line starts ahead of him — that’s one of the best cushions in the league — but honestly, the offense looks like a mess.
They flipped their entire offensive concept midseason because, frankly, they didn’t seem to know what they were doing. Now there’s talk about them going Air Raid with Morris, but I have my doubts as to whether he can effectively run that system.
Tad Hudson, a transfer from UNC, is supposed to take the reins, but how that’s going to play out is still a big question mark. The offense has so many uncertainties that it’s almost not worth diving into.
On defense, it’s just as bleak. The defensive line and defensive backs are totally depleted. Defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson is great, but even with a solid coordinator, it doesn’t guarantee instant results.
He’s already said they’re going to stick to a base defense until they can figure things out. No blitzes, no stunts. Just lining up and covering in the most basic way possible while he sorts through the roster.
This defensive roster looks like something out of "Major League." It’s just a patchwork of players who don’t offer much.
Schedule-wise, Coastal doesn’t catch any breaks.
It gets a bye week before heading to ODU, which helps. After that, the Chanticleers have back-to-back road games. First, it's UL Monroe, which should be a win in theory, but road games are never easy. Then, there’s the trip to App State, where I honestly have no clue whose program is in worse shape.
I see five games projected with spreads of a touchdown or less, and I only have Coastal favored by more than a field goal in two of those.
I’m taking the under on the win total here at 5.5. My projection is 3.7 wins for this season — a lot lower than the market out there.
I don’t see the Chants getting anywhere close to that win total. They might sort some things out against Charleston Southern, but the real challenge hits in November when they travel to Georgia Southern — which I expect to torch the secondary — and then face South Carolina, where they’re going to get absolutely handled.
The November slate looks brutal with no real chance to breathe. Even after the bye, Old Dominion is no cakewalk.
I’m firmly on the under here. The line’s at -110, and I think it’s a great opportunity to take it. This Coastal squad isn’t ready for prime time.
Pick: Coastal Carolina Under 5.5 Wins
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We're really hitting the floor here.
As a University of Arkansas grad, a Razorback Foundation donor, and someone who’s pretty plugged in, I can say this: nobody was overly upset to see Dowell Loggains leave when he headed to South Carolina. We lost our offensive coordinator? Fine. Heard Bobby Petrino was on his way, so we were OK with that transition.
Did anyone miss him down at South Carolina when he left? I didn’t hear a peep, and here’s why: his offense was basically just letting LaNorris Sellers get into trouble and hoping he could make something happen. That’s pretty much what the offense looked like with KJ Jefferson in Fayetteville too.
Now, take a look at App State: its power running game with Shawn Clark and Eli Drinkwitz is gone. Instead, it’s all about wanting a quarterback who can get into trouble and create on the spot.
But here’s the thing: the Mountaineers' QB play has dropped off a cliff since then.
They’re rolling out AJ Swann from Vanderbilt, who maybe flashed once or twice, but he’s not the kind of guy who can run a Sellers or Jefferson offense when things break down — they will break down.
They also have only 22 offensive line starts returning, the fewest in the Sun Belt. That spells trouble for a coach who doesn’t rely on top-tier design plays but more on runs, RPOs and hoping something works out.
Loggains has always been more of a recruiter than a true offensive guru, and I expect that to show here. App State’s reputation has always been in recruiting, and it's had decent coaches, but that’s about it.
On the defensive side, the 'Neers have potentially the worst defensive line in the Sun Belt, especially against the run.
Four of their top six tacklers are back, but none came from the defensive line. Last year, they ranked 129th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, and that won't improve much this season.
Defensive coordinator DJ Smith doesn’t seem like the guy to turn things around either.
They do have a decent setup with a bye before taking on Boise State, which is a good spot, but they're not winning that game. That matchup sits awkwardly between games against Air Force and Notre Dame, so it’s a tough stretch.
I can see App State covering if it’s a big spread, but even then, I have doubts about this team. Its road trips to Old Dominion and James Madison are tough.
Forget winning the division or making the Sun Belt Championship — that schedule is brutal, especially those two road games.
So, can I back them on the schedule? Nope. Can I take them in futures? No way.
The Mountaineers' win total comes in at 5.5, but I make it 5.2. I generally avoid betting overs or unders unless it’s by a clear half-win margin, but math is pushing me toward the under here.
App State looks like it's headed down, and we’re about to find out what the real rock bottom is for this team.
Pick: Appalachian State Under 5.5 Wins
Let's just mark Thursday, Oct. 23 for Georgia State.
The Panthers have to hit the road and face Georgia Southern on Saturday, Oct. 18, then just five days later, they host South Alabama.
Now, the Jaguars get a bit of a breather with those five days of rest, but keep in mind, they’ll have played Arkansas State the week prior — a game they should handle comfortably.
Georgia State will be traveling, likely after taking a beating from Georgia Southern and JC French, then barely getting a breather before jumping into a South Alabama team coached by Major Applewhite.
I’m projecting South Alabama as a solid favorite here, around -9.
If anyone’s calling that Oct. 23 game a “Game of the Year,” they’ve seriously got their head in the clouds. That spot is brutal: coming off a tough road loss and short on rest.
So yeah, keep an eye on Oct. 23 for Georgia State — it’s a classic “boat race” watch.
Pick: South Alabama ATS vs. Georgia State (Oct. 23)
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Shame on this entire administration.
You’ve got Doc Holliday, who consistently takes your team to a Florida bowl every year, brings in 20 recruits annually, and keeps the program stable. Then they get rid of him and bring in Charles Huff. Now, Huff gives you one of the best Group of Five defenses around and even nabs a bowl win, but they mess that up, too. They just keep screwing it up.
Now, looking ahead, Tony Gibson comes in as head coach, and Rod Smith enters as offensive coordinator.
Smith will bring Rich Rod's Jacksonville State offense to an offensive line that has barely two dozen starts between them. That spells trouble.
Then there are a bunch of running back transfers coming in, but who’s actually going to stick around?
Zion Turner steps in at quarterback with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson serving as the other QB option. Add in potentially the worst wide receiver corps in the entire Sun Belt, and there's a real challenge ahead.
On defense, Gibson’s nickel package is rolling in from NC State. We love this scheme and have bet on it plenty of times. The problem is, the talent on this roster might not be up to the level needed to pull it off.
Gibson’s going to need a solid secondary — he does have some experience back there — but the key to a strong nickel package is a front loaded with players who can hold up on the line, take on offensive linemen, and pressure the quarterback with just three guys while having five in the back. I just don’t see those pieces fitting here.
The schedule starts with two obvious wins in Missouri State and Eastern Kentucky after playing Georgia. The Herd can use those to figure out the offense.
But then it’s back-to-back road games at Middle Tennessee and Louisiana, followed by hosting Texas State. The rest of the season features potentially the two best teams in the West with maybe seven of the last eight games decided by less than a touchdown. I see a bunch of closely contested games down the stretch.
The over/under sits at currently at 5.5 wins, plus the juice leans toward taking the over. I should be all in on the over with that line, but here’s the catch: I expect the Herd to start out really rough, especially against Georgia.
The early games might clarify things, and maybe the win total will get updated once we’re a few weeks in and the market responds. Two weeks might be enough to start figuring things out, especially by Weeks 2 and 3.
After that, expect a slew of close games. The question is what to expect going into the last 75% of the schedule. After Game 3, this could be a totally different team.
For now, I’m passing. Five-and-a-half wins feels right, and I should take the over, but I just don’t know what I’m getting until I see those first three games.
Pick: Pass
Sun Belt West Division
If you’re betting Texas State this year, you’re really betting on G.J. Kinne's system. Kinne has a somewhat unique offensive style with a bit of that old Tulsa influence, with some tweaks like a Go-Go vibe thrown in.
Honestly, I’m a little surprised he’s still at Texas State; it seems like he’s destined to move up to a Power 4 program eventually. So, when you think about this team, it’s really about his offense, because the Bobcats lost every starter from last year.
The one guy who might actually turn some heads is Keldric Luster, a transfer from SMU who might be the best fit for this offense over the incumbent Brad Jackson.
If you’re not hearing Jackson’s name much during camp, it’s probably because he’s not holding his spot well, and one of these transfers is likely to take over.
On the bright side, Texas State has one of the best centers in the Sun Belt in Tellek Lockett, which should be a huge help for whoever ends up starting at quarterback.
They get a couple of easy September games against Eastern Michigan and Nicholls to figure things out. They do hit some trickier spots with a road trip to UTSA later, but that’s not an enormous stretch travel-wise, and that defense is still workable.
Then, Arizona State comes up, and while that should be a tough game, it’s also part of a schedule that the Sun Devils might not prioritize.
So, there’s late-September time for Texas State to start to build an identity, figure out its quarterback and find its best strengths.
If you’re betting on the Bobs now, it’s basically on the offense and the fact that their top three tacklers are back on the defense. That’s solid news — especially for stopping the run, which matters a lot in this conference.
However, the back seven on defense is a major concern.
Last year, Texas State ranked 106th in coverage, 92nd in explosiveness allowed and 118th in passing down explosiveness allowed. In other words, third-and-long against the Bobs often turned into easy touchdowns.
I don’t expect that to change much this year; the defense is going to be vulnerable and likely give up some big plays.
The Bobcats will probably have to outscore opponents, and my projection has them around 7.1, which means I’m not counting on them to make the Sun Belt Championship or beat their over/under of 7.5 wins.
They could potentially pull off an upset at Arizona State, but games like that or at UTSA (which I have favored by 8.5) are long shots.
I’m not playing the under on their win total because if you’re betting on Texas State, are you betting on the system or are you going to bet on the fact that they don't have any returning players in offense?
Pick: Pass
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This Louisiana offense looks like it could have some issues, especially when you consider how bad the defense is.
One thing standing out is the tempo — 117th in that area — and how much it leans on the run game. Luckily for the Ragin' Cajuns, they have a backfield featuring Zylan Perry and Bill Davis, who both averaged over 3.7 yards after contact.
Perry, in particular, does a great job forcing missed tackles, and he’s a real weapon in the run game.
This is still very much Billy Napier’s offense, with that run-heavy identity and two backs who can make plays.
Quarterback Walker Howard may need some time to get comfortable, but he has early games against Rice and McNeese to ease into leading the team. He does face a tough test against Missouri — a team I’m not a fan of — but I think the offense should hold up well enough.
The slow tempo, however, puts a lot of pressure on the defense, which has been dreadful. When you’re running a pace that results in nine or 10 possessions per game, your defense has to make stops consistently.
Second-year defensive coordinator Jim Salgado has some serious issues to deal with. The Ragin' Cajuns lost their top five tacklers from last year, which hasn’t helped.
Jordan Lawson and Cameron Whitfield return on the edges after accounting for over 11 sacks last season, but aside from that pass rush, the defense will struggle mightily.
Looking at the numbers, it’s brutal across the board: 132nd in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, 125th in contested catches allowed, 121st in Finishing Drives, 131st in pass rush and 124th in tackling. That’s coaching, which falls on Salgado.
The defense is just not getting it done. It’s either time for a big adjustment, or we might see a shuffle in the defensive coaching staff before long.
Schedule-wise, it isn’t exactly a nightmare. From a strength-of-schedule standpoint, it’s one of the easiest in the conference.
They’ll host Texas State and Southern Miss, and their only potentially tricky spot is a back-to-back six-day rest game at South Alabama. That’s a game to watch, especially since the Jaguars run an offense that could exploit any weakness in the cornerbacks.
After that, they get a bye week before taking on James Madison at home — a tough matchup, but it comes with a break beforehand.
Louisiana is a co-favorite to win the West Division with Texas State and South Alabama. I’m projecting about 7.4 wins. I’m not interested in betting the win total, but this is the team to watch if you want to play the West strategically.
The offense might be fine, but the slow tempo means the defense has to step up. And right now, that side of the ball is shaky enough to make me a little nervous about betting on the Louisiana team total or taking them to win the division outright.
Pick: Pass
About seven or eight years ago, when the Sports Action app was just starting out, I flew to Vegas and started placing insane bets on Temple at 40-1, 30-1 and 25-1. I knew Matt Rhule was going to take them to the AAC Championship, and sure enough, he did.
Fast-forward to pre-pandemic times, our podcast was all-in on UAB at 35-1 odds. Everyone else was knocking it down to 20-1, but UAB went out and beat Middle Tennessee to snag its conference championship.
That same energy is definitely in the air right now.
Southern Miss' whole defense is stacked with talent, including five of the 11 starters and quarterback Braylon Braxton, who should really be wearing Marshall green.
Head coach Charles Huff brought in his defensive staff, but the real game-changer is Blake Anderson on offense. When he was the head coach at Arkansas State, he ran some seriously electric offenses. After his wife tragically passed from cancer, he left to take a break out West. It wasn’t the best fit, and there were some problems at that program.
Now, he’s back in the Sun Belt but without head coach responsibilities — just focusing on running the offense for what could be the league’s best quarterback.
My power ratings can’t quite get Southern Miss to where it needs to be. I’m projecting four wins, which feels low.
When you combine Marshall’s defense with a top-tier quarterback and Anderson’s offensive wizardry — a guy who has dominated this conference before — no spreadsheet can keep up.
The schedule looks tough, but if you look through old-school eyes with power ratings, there’s a ceiling to what Southern Miss can do. Historically, it's never been able to beat anyone stacked, always hanging around the 130-132 range in team rankings. If you buy into that, you’re limiting this team’s upside.
This team can win the West, make it to the championship game, and yes, probably get hammered by James Madison. But until that happens, let’s enjoy the ride.
That 40-1 was great value. If you can still find 20-1, I'd jump on it.
The 14-1 to win the Sun Belt that's out in the market right now feels low because its season-opening slate looks rough. It'll probably take a loss to Mississippi State (maybe with a cover), then we get to see real action when it faces Jackson State.
After that, the Golden Eagles will dominate Appalachian State, and that’s when everyone wakes up. Anderson will have the offense wired, and suddenly, Southern Miss isn’t the same team. The power ratings will shift dramatically.
Remember, power ratings don’t move much at the end of the season — usually just a point or so in the last four weeks. But early in the season, they can swing four to six points in a single game based on how teams dismantle their opposition.
We’ve seen this story before. People missed the boat on Rhule moving Temple forward and Bill Clark resurrecting UAB with players coming back after sitting out two years.
This is the same kind of under-the-radar situation. That’s why the opening line was nuts and why 20-1 is still a steal.
If you’re sitting on 14-1, that’s fine too — just be ready for Louisiana because that’s going to be a tough game. Currently, power ratings peg it as a 14-point game, but by mid-October, it could be a whole different story.
So get your futures locked in and build a plan: Prepare for Louisiana, then hedge for a potential James Madison beatdown. That one might sting, but it’s going to be one wild ride getting there.
Pick: Southern Miss to Win Sun Belt (+2100)
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Arkansas State’s offense looks pretty bleak heading into the season. I’m projecting the Red Wolves at just 3.7 wins. There’s just not much to like here.
The one bright spot? Jaylen Raynor coming back — he has to carry this offense because the rest isn’t inspiring much confidence.
They do bring Corey Rucker back after he commanded 113 targets a year ago with 2.3 yards per route run.
The offensive line returns 33 starts, but it’s not the kind of unit that’s going to open up holes or give Raynor much time. It feels like they’re just going to get pushed around.
And to mix things up, they’re running at the 17th-fastest pace nationally. That means Raynor either needs to throw quickly or start running himself. That’s really going to define their offense.
On defense, the switch to a 4-2-5 scheme with Griff McCarley taking over doesn’t exactly inspire optimism either. This could end up being the worst defensive line and secondary in the Sun Belt, so I’m not counting on much improvement there.
If you’re someone who plays the market or digs into second-order win totals, this team should raise a red flag. The Wolves finished last season with six games decided by one possession, and that variability signals downward pressure on their win total.
Plus, their schedule includes tricky matchups, as Texas State and Southern Miss both come into Jonesboro off bye weeks, and the cross-division games against Georgia Southern and App State won’t be easy.
I wouldn’t take Arkansas State over 5.5 wins, and I’m ready to take the under at 5.5. When alternates come out, I’ll probably jump under 4.5. My projection sits at 3.7, and frankly, I’d be surprised if they hit that.
Oh — and a quick word of advice for Week 2: when you face Arkansas, just chill. Know your lane, hang out by the Mississippi River, and do whatever it is you do in Jonesboro.
Pick: Arkansas State Under 5.5 Wins
I actually like South Alabama this season. I’m just waiting for the market to drop a bit more.
Ideally, I’d like to see their win total sit around 6.5 so I can take the over. I’m projecting them just under 7.5 wins.
I have the Jaguars favored by double digits in about six games, including a big one against Coastal Carolina and, of course, a strong edge over Morgan State.
They host Southern Miss, but what will the Golden Eagles be by the time this game rolls around? They're also on the road late in the season at Georgia State, which is a tough spot for the Panthers.
There are definitely a handful of games I see as totally winnable for South Alabama.
Zach Pyron came in after missing out on the Minnesota job, but I don’t think he’ll be starting because Bishop Davenport was excellent in the bowl game. Watching him made me think that, even if Gio Lopez leaves, the quarterback situation looks pretty solid.
Plus, Paul Petrino stepping in as offensive coordinator should help, even if the system still heavily relies on Major Applewhite’s style.
On offense, we shouldn’t overlook running back Kentrel Bullock, who ran for 831 yards and seven touchdowns on 5.5 yards per carry.
The offensive line should be decent, as it returns 52 starts. and the team’s starting running back sits around 84th.
Defensively, there are some holes, particularly on the line where the edges are coming in under 250 pounds, which is a bit worrisome. They do have valuable experience returning, though, including the top 14 tacklers from last year.
I have South Alabama favored by at least six points in six games. That tells me if the total gets pushed down to 6.5, I’d be seriously interested in going over.
I’m really hoping to hear Davenport named the starter by around Aug. 20. That would definitely push me more toward pulling the trigger on the over.
Pick: South Alabama Over 6.5 Wins or Better
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I’m going to get my play out of the way here — I'm going to pass on betting Troy for now.
I make the Trojans' win total right around 6, which is over the 5.5 line, but I want to see how healthy this team looks after their Week 2 game against Clemson.
That Tigers' defensive line is going to absolutely feast on Troy’s offense. After that, Troy’s up against Memphis, whose offense will try to run it up and down the field.
So, I’m holding off for the time being. Check back in with me on Sept. 14 once these two games are done.
If Troy’s roster still looks healthy at that point, and if Gerad Parker has his starters ready to go for the whole season, I’d be much more interested in betting on it there.
There's plenty of consistency with this returning roster, as 50 lettermen return with the beef of the talent and experience in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback Goose Crowder still hasn't been named a starter after two concussions had him done for the season by October.
There are a couple of questions surrounding the skill positions on offense after it lost 1,000-yard back Damien Taylor (Ole Miss) and 1,000-yard receiver Devonte Ross (Penn State).
The run defense should be excellent up the middle with nose tackle Luis Medina and middle linebacker Steven Cattledge returning.
However, the secondary is loaded with inexperienced redshirt freshmen who were recruited by Parker after he took over as head coach.
Right now, there are just too many coin-toss games on the schedule for me to get comfortable.
Out of all the games, only Nichols and Georgia State stand out where Troy is a double-digit favorite. The other seven games have spreads of four points or less, and that’s just too close for my taste.
But again, it’s all going to come down to how they fare against Clemson and Memphis and, most importantly, how healthy their roster remains.
If they get beaten badly and still look healthy, I’ll likely be betting them come Sept. 20 against Buffalo. For now, it’s wait and see.
Pick: Wait and See
I make ULM's win total about 5.5. I'd like to go over 4.5, but the offense leaves me with a lot of questions.
That's mainly because Bryant Vincent isn’t calling plays himself, and I’m still scratching my head over who actually is. The coaching staff doesn’t have a clear play-caller, and I'd want that nailed down before I put any money down.
Vincent said he wants to focus his attention on other areas, which is fine, but we really need to know what system they’re running.
Quarterback Aidan Armenta needs development, but Hunter Herring is intriguing when it comes to the wildcat packages.
If there are any reports out of fall camp that say they're going to run the wildcat at the 133rd-fastest tempo in the nation, that means this team is going to go full service academy. Essentially, they’ll be playing to control possessions and trying to capitalize on each one.
But here’s the hitch: the run defense is just terrible, coming in at 134th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate last year. That front line has a bunch of new Juco transfers trying to close those gaps, but it’s going to be a challenge.
On the bright side, pass defense looks to be the strong suit. That secondary might stymie some of the pass-heavy offenses on their schedule, like Texas State and potentially Louisiana with Walker Howard late in the season.
They return David Godsey Jr. at cornerback and Carl Fauntroy at safety, so we’ll see what those two can bring.
Last year, the Warhawks snagged three outright wins as underdogs, catching some people by surprise. However, they covered only one of their last five games after they ran out of gas and opponents started figuring them out.
They also beat JMU as 16-point underdogs, which is a good sign of coaching.
Early in the season, they’ve got a nice setup — a bye week ahead of a winnable game against UTEP, whose coach, Scotty Walden, hasn’t quite brought in what I expected by Year 2. After that, they catch Arkansas State on back-to-back travel and should have a win against St. Francis in Week 2.
I believe the coaching staff will figure things out offensively, and because the pace is slow and there will only be 8-10 possessions a game, the defense just needs to fix a couple of key holes.
I like the over and just want to see the market dip a bit to get a better number before I jump in.
Pick: ULM Over 4.5 Wins
