Wisconsin vs Butler Odds, Picks, Predictions for Saturday, December 14

Wisconsin vs Butler Odds, Picks, Predictions for Saturday, December 14 article feature image
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Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Wisconsin Badgers F John Tonje.

The Wisconsin Badgers take on the Butler Bulldogs in Indianapolis, IN, on Saturday. Tip-off is set for 2:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.

Wisconsin is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a 146-point over/under.

Here are my Wisconsin vs. Butler predictions and college basketball picks for December 14, 2024.


Wisconsin vs Butler Prediction

My Pick: Over 145.5 (Play to 147)

My Wisconsin vs Butler best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.


Wisconsin vs Butler Odds

Wisconsin Logo
Saturday, Dec. 14
2:30 p.m. ET
Big Ten Network
Butler Logo
Wisconsin Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-4.5
-110
146
-110o / -110u
-225
Butler Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+4.5
-110
146
-110o / -110u
+185
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.
bet365 Logo
  • Wisconsin vs Butler spread: Wisconsin -4.5
  • Wisconsin vs Butler over/under: 146 points
  • Wisconsin vs Butler moneyline: Wisconsin -225, Wisconsin +185
  • Wisconsin vs Butler best bet: Over 145.5 (Play to 147)

Spread

I'm passing on the spread, but I would lean toward taking Butler and the points.

Moneyline

I'm passing on the moneyline.

Over/Under

I like the over between two teams that should find easy offense.

My Pick: Over 145.5 (Play to 147)

Wisconsin vs Butler College Basketball Betting Preview

It’s a pretty interesting situational spot for both teams, given Wisconsin is reeling following three consecutive losses while Butler just lost a home game to North Dakota State.

Butler’s jump-shot-reliant offense makes it a higher-variance squad that will be more prone to these abnormal outcomes — for example, the Bulldogs' 68-66 loss to Austin Peay in early November after they shot 7-for-25 (28%) from 3.

Regardless, Butler runs an elite motion-based catch-and-shoot offense. The Jahmyl Telfort-Pierre Brooks II-Patrick McCaffery wing trio can huck it, allowing Butler to run all kinds of mismatch-inducing drive-and-kick, inside-out or pick-and-pop actions.

That should pose an issue for Wisconsin, given Greg Gard runs two-big lineups with Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter, two guys who struggle to defend in space — they're super vulnerable if you move them around. Butler could feast on dribble hand-offs, given the Badgers can’t contain those sets (1.2 PPP allowed, fourth percentile).

I’m becoming extremely worried about Wisconsin’s defense as a whole. The Badgers are struggling against secondary motion-based offenses, and they were just ripped to shreds by three spread pick-and-roll offenses during this three-game losing streak (Michigan, Marquette, Illinois).

What can you do if you can’t defend on-ball or off-ball actions? Wisco can only defend post-heavy offenses, which explains why the Badgers have slipped to 86th nationally in defensive efficiency.

Wisconsin plays mainly through the block on the other end of the court, leveraging Crowl and Winter in post-up sets and their inside-out passing ability when the post gets doubled.

So, the question becomes: Can Butler hold up in the post?

I think so. Butler’s post-up defense has been borderline elite in the early going (.70 PPP allowed, 84th percentile), spearheading a borderline-elite interior defense that ranks in the top 15 nationally in 2-point shooting allowed (42%), free throw rate allowed (22%) and cutting points per game allowed (3.2).

If the Bulldogs can avoid doubling the post, stick with Wisconsin’s cutters and not foul in the process, it will be challenging for the Badgers to run their offense.

That said, the Bulldogs’ defense is still relatively weak (93rd nationally in efficiency) because they can’t stop ball screens. You can throw Telfort, Brooks or McCaffery into a high pick-and-roll almost every time down the court — they allow the fourth-most pick-and-roll ball-handler points per game nationally (15).

That’s not what Wisconsin is most comfortable doing. Still, Max Klesmit, John Tonje and John Blackwell are three interchangeable pick-and-roll initiators who have cooked ball-screen coverages during the non-conference (.97 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP, 93rd percentile).

So, I’m partial toward the over.

Neither defense is that good — I also believe Wisconsin is quickly turning into an offense-first, defense-later squad, which might go against conventional market wisdom — and both offenses have exploitable matchups.

I’m very worried about the pace, as both teams avoid transition like the plague.

Still, KenPom, Bart Torvik and EvanMiya all project the total closer to 148 or 149 than 145. These two offenses should run efficiently, hopefully cashing the over despite a lower-possession battle.

About the Author
Tanner McGrath covers college basketball, college football and Major League Baseball at Action Network. He is a contributor to Payoff Pitch, Action Network’s Major League Baseball betting podcast. He's been working in the space for more than five years with past journalism experience in Canadian collegiate sports, finance and economics. He has an obsession with America East basketball, betting the Miami Marlins and sweating out home underdogs.

Follow Tanner McGrath @tannerstruth on Twitter/X.

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