The Connecticut Huskies take on the Butler Bulldogs in Indianapolis, IN. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on Peacock.
UConn is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -360. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here are my UConn vs. Butler predictions and college basketball picks for December 21, 2024.
UConn vs Butler Prediction
My Pick: LEAN UConn -8
My UConn vs Butler best bet is on the Huskies spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
UConn vs Butler Odds
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -108 | 144.5 -110 / -110 | -360 |
| Butler Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -112 | 144.5 -110 / -110 | +285 |
- UConn vs Butler spread: UConn -9.5
- UConn vs Butler over/under: 144.5 points
- UConn vs Butler moneyline: UConn -360, Butler +285
- UConn vs Butler best bet: LEAN UConn -8
Spread
I'm not betting on this game. But if I had to, I would lay the points with the Huskies.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the total, although my initial inclination would be to take the under.
My Pick: LEAN UConn -8
UConn vs Butler College Basketball Betting Preview
The situational spot screams Bulldogs.
Butler has to be motivated coming home following four consecutive tough losses, including two on the road to KenPom top-10 teams (Houston, Marquette). This is a massive opportunity for the Bulldogs to earn a much-needed win against a Quad 1 opponent.
Meanwhile, UConn might be in a letdown spot after bouncing back off the Maui debacle. The Huskies have won five consecutive games, knocking off Baylor, Texas and Gonzaga during the stretch.
More importantly, they are likely gassed after Wednesday’s overtime win at home over the Zach Freemnatle-less Xavier Musketeers.
Stylistically, these two play very similar. Both feature secondary-based motion offenses that rely on spacing and shooting and elite catch-and-shoot denial defenses that either switch on the perimeter or play drop coverage.
I immediately look toward the under when two catch-and-shoot offenses play two catch-and-shoot denial defenses.
The problem is that neither team can stay in front of the dribble.
Butler has a borderline-elite trio of spacing-and-shooting wings in Jahmyl Telfort, Patrick McCaffery and Pierre Brooks II. But they all struggle to defend ball screens, so opponents can quickly, effectively and efficiently spam middle pick-and-rolls for 40 minutes.
For example, Wisconsin’s bigger wings scored 40 points on 35 ball screens against Butler, suitable for a whopping 1.143 PPP.
While Dan Hurley prefers to run his pattern-motion stuff, his system is still read-and-react — i.e., the Huskies can seamlessly slip into pick-and-roll sets if the stagger screen shooters don’t get open.
UConn has the same problem on defense, especially given that Hassan Diarra, Liam McNeeley and Aidan Mahaney are easily exploitable defenders on switches. I also don’t trust Samson Johnson or Tarris Reed Jr. to defend in space.
It’s worth mentioning that Johnson is in concussion protocol and is questionable for Saturday.
Like UConn, Thad Matta would prefer to space the floor and shoot the lights out, but you can mostly trust Brooks, Telfort, Kolby King or Finley Bizjack to mix-and-match ball screens in the half-court. I suspect UConn will struggle to stop Butler’s sizey, versatile scoring wings.
Also, the Huskies can’t stop fouling, ranking 334th nationally in free throw rate allowed (43%). Butler should drive endlessly and live at the line, given the Bulldogs rank sixth nationally in free throw rate (48%).
All that said, I think the key to this game is regression.
UConn is among the country’s best 3-point denial defenses, ranking 24th nationally in 3-point rate allowed (32%) and second in catch-and-shoot jumpers per game allowed (11). But opponents have shot a whopping 39% from deep against the Huskies, a wholly unsustainable mark — ShotQuality projects that mark closer to 34% based on the “quality” of attempts.
Meanwhile, Butler allows a few more catch-and-shoot jumpers per game (16), yet opponents have shot only 28% from deep, a mark ripe for regression. ShotQuality projects opponents should shoot 33% the rest of the way based on the “quality” of attempts.
Therefore, while both squads rank around 100th nationally in defensive efficiency, I believe UConn’s defense is undervalued while Butler’s is overvalued. Things should improve for the Huskies but might worsen for the Bulldogs.
Plus, can we really trust Matta? Since he took over the Bulldogs in 2023, they are 14-27 ATS as underdogs, including 3-8 ATS as home ‘dogs and 9-21 ATS when catching points in Big East play.
Altogether, Matta's Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS as in-conference home underdogs.
Meanwhile, Hurley’s Huskies are 72-54-1 ATS as favorites, including 52-42-1 ATS when laying points in Big East play.
Ultimately, it’s Huskies or nothing for me, given the coaching mismatch and looming shooting regression. But Johnson’s status, the situational spot and the general high-variance nature of the game are keeping me away.
