The Le Moyne Dolphins take on the Dartmouth Big Green in Hanover, NH. Tip-off is set for 11 a.m. ET on ESPN+.
Dartmouth is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -245. The total is set at 148.5 points.
Here are my Le Moyne vs. Dartmouth predictions and college basketball picks for December 18, 2024.
Le Moyne vs Dartmouth Prediction
My Pick: Dartmouth -5 or Better
My Le Moyne vs Dartmouth best bet is on the Big Green spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Le Moyne vs Dartmouth Odds, Lines, Pick
| Le Moyne Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Dartmouth Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | -245 |
- Le Moyne vs Dartmouth spread: Dartmouth -6
- Le Moyne vs Dartmouth over/under: 148.5 points
- Le Moyne vs Dartmouth moneyline: Dartmouth -245, Le Moyne +200
- Le Moyne vs Dartmouth best bet: Dartmouth -5 or Better
My Le Moyne vs Dartmouth College Basketball Betting Preview
This feels like an excellent bounce-back spot for the Big Green, who play their first home game in over a month following three consecutive tough losses to decent teams (92-83 to KenPom No. 140 UMass Lowell, 77-65 to KenPom No. 87 Notre Dame and 69-68 in overtime to KenPom No. 226 UIC).
It’s safe to say that KenPom No. 340 Le Moyne will be a significant step down in competition.
Meanwhile, we can probably fade the Dolphins heading on the road for the first time since Nov. 29, especially after they dominated non-D-I SUNY Delhi over the weekend (106-51 win).
The key matchup on Wednesday is Dartmouth’s perimeter-oriented motion offense battling Le Moyne’s compact zone defense.
The Big Green run shooters off an array of off-ball screens and dribble hand-off sets. They rank in the top-20 nationally in 3-point rate, taking 30 3s per game. They are far from an elite shooting squad, but Cade Haskins, Jayden Williams and Conor Amundsen all shoot better than 30% from deep.
Conversely, Le Moyne packs it in on defense, ranking 277th nationally in 3-point rate allowed. The Dolphins are OK at closing out but not excellent, and because they allow such a high volume of attempts, they are allowing the 26th-most unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers per game (11.5).
They also struggle to defend secondary-based off-ball screening actions (1.03 PPP allowed, 25th percentile).
Dartmouth should be able to run around and shoot to its heart’s content against Le Moyne.
Le Moyne also runs a secondary-motion, jump-shot-reliant offense. But Dartmouth is a tad better in its catch-and-shoot denial, ranking 187th nationally in 3-point rate allowed while surrendering only eight unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers per game.
Contrary to Le Moyne, Dartmouth’s interior defense is far more exploitable. The Big Green allow nearly 40 paint points per game (the 14th-most nationally) and have been gashed at the rim.
That said, Dartmouth’s interior defensive metrics are likely deflated (i.e., undervalued) after tough matchups with the uber-efficient, super-athletic, rim-reliant River Hawks and Fighting Irish over the past week.
Le Moyne can pressure the rim — especially with cuts — but the Dolphins’ interior offense will be considerably more tolerable for the Big Green.
Also, Le Moyne’s rim attack primarily involves drawing fouls (36% free-throw rate, 119th nationally), and I doubt the Dolphins will reach the charity stripe much against Dartmouth’s disciplined defense (27% free-throw rate allowed, 59th nationally).
Ultimately, I expect Dartmouth to win the 3-point shot-volume battle in a game between two jump-shot-reliant offenses, and I don’t think the Big Green’s interior defense will get overly exploited by Le Moyne.
It’s also worth mentioning that Dartmouth will have monster advantages in the rebounding and turnover departments, which will only help it gain a more considerable shot-volume advantage across 40 minutes.
The turnover battle will be key here because both teams like running in the open court and rank far above average in transition frequency.
But Dartmouth is a much better ball-handling squad. It ranks in the top 100 nationally in turnover rate and thus avoids defending in transition altogether, allowing just seven fast-break points per game (84th percentile).
Meanwhile, Le Moyne turns the ball over 14 times per game (17th percentile) and allows 15 fast-break points per game (fourth percentile).
Dartmouth also spends more time in transition (18 possessions per game) than Le Moyne (15 possessions per game) and boasts the more efficient transition offense (1.00 PPP compared to .95 PPP).
The Big Green should handle the Dolphins in the open- and half-court, especially given the situational spot.
I’m all over Dartmouth, even if leading scorer Ryan Cornish misses a second consecutive game (the Big Green played well without him against Lowell, anyway).
