NFL Week 16 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
With three weeks left in the regular season, the sprint for the playoffs is on.
Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 16 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Saturday, Dec. 24, 12 p.m. ET.
1. The Cold Has Arrived
As of now, we have seven Week 16 games with a total under 40 — Some highlights:
- If the Saints-Browns total closes below 32 it would be the lowest total since 2008.
- Last time we’ve seen back-to-back weeks with no totals of 50 or more? Week 13 and 14 of the 2019 season (Packers-Dolphins game currently sits w/ O/U of 50)
- Last week with seven or more totals below 40? Week 17 of the 2011 season.
2. A New Era
The Lions have covered the spread in 7 consecutive games. They haven’t covered 7 straight games since 2011 (covered 7 straight between 2010 and 2011).The last time Detroit covered 7 straight in the same season? 1991, the last time the Lions made it past the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
Dan Campbell's Coach of the Year odds are also on the move. He was 250-1 entering Week 13 (Jags-Lions), 150-1 entering Week 14, 9-1 entering Week 15 and is +175 entering Week 16.
3. Dog Day Afternoon
With Gardner Minshew starting vs. the Cowboys …
The Eagles would be 13th team in December or later to be an underdog with a 90%+ win pct. The previous 12 teams were 2-10 SU in that game. Philly is 8-17 ATS on the road since 2020, the least profitable road team ATS in that span.
4. Sinking Fast
A Seahawks streak a decade-plus in the making. Seattle has lost 5 consecutive games ATS.
- Geno Smith’s first 5-game ATS losing streak of his career (47 career starts).
- Seattle hasn’t lost 5 consecutive games ATS in the same season since 2003.
Every NFL Game For Week 16
Game-By-Game Breakdown
| Trevor Lawrence, JAC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
6-8 ATS 6-8 SU | 11-20 ATS 9-22 SU | 4-11 ATS 2-13 SU |
| Zach Wilson, NYJ | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
5-3 ATS 5-3 SU | 10-11 ATS 8-13 SU | 5-5 ATS 4-6 SU |
+ Trevor Lawrence has only started one game at night with the Jaguars
- Thursday Night Football at Bengals in 2021 as 7.5-point underdogs and lost 24-21.
- This is the Jaguars 5th primetime game since 2016. They are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS.
- Jaguars haven’t won on the road in primetime since Steelers-Jaguars Wild Card playoff game in 2007-08 (6 consecutive SU losses).
+ Trevor Lawrence is 9-22 SU, 11-20 ATS in his career.
- Lawrence is 2-13 SU and 4-11 ATS on the road in his career.
- Lawrence won in Tennessee in his last road start and he’s never won or covered consecutive road games.
+ Jaguars are 5-22 SU when allowing 14 pts or more under Trevor Lawrence (4-7 this season, including 3-1 in their past 4 games in the spot)
+ The Jaguars are 7-15 ATS in their past 22 games.
+ Jaguars are 5-2 to the under at home and 6-1 to the over on the road this season.
+ Jaguars after a SU win under Trevor Lawrence: 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS
- Since 2018, Jaguars are 7-11 ATS after a SU win
- Only time Lawrence has played a game off two straight wins SU came earlier this season in Philly, a 29-21 loss as a 6.5-point underdog.
- On at least a 2-game winning streak over the past 20 years, the Jaguars are 15-28-1 ATS in their next game, losing four straight SU/ATS since the start of the 2018 season.
+ Trevor Lawrence has played four games in his career on the second leg or later of a road trip. Jaguars are 1-3 SU/ATS (just beat the Titans in this spot).
+ Jaguars lose LT Cam Robinson for the season with a right meniscus injury.
His value? 36 QBs have made 10 starts over the past two seasons, Trevor Lawrence is just 11th in times pressured per dropback.
+ As a favorite or an underdog of less than 2.5 pts, Trevor Lawrence is 0-8 SU/ATS.
+ Teams after facing the Cowboys this season are 10-3 ATS in their next game, covering the spread in 4 in a row and 6 of the past 7 games.
+ Robert Saleh has only coached one night game with the Jets
- Thursday Night Football at Colts in 2021 as 10-point underdogs and lost 45-30.
- Jets have lost 7 consecutive games SU in primetime dating back to 2018.
- Jets are 8-22 SU and 11-18-1 ATS in their past 30 games in primetime dating back to the start of the 2011 season.
+ The Jets total is down to 36 — the lowest total for a Jets or Giants home game since Dec. 11, 2011 — Chiefs at Jets — Tyler Palko vs. Mark Sanchez.
+ Sauce Gardner is the (-650) favorite to win Defensive ROY, he opened at +1200 odds.
+ Garrett Wilson is the favorite (-275) to win Offensive ROY, he opened at +2000 odds.
Teams to have both DROY and OROY same season in Super Bowl era:
- 2017 Saints: Marshon Lattimore, Alvin Kamara
- 1967 Lions: Mel Farr, Lem Barney
+ The New York Jets haven’t made the playoffs in 11 years, the longest drought in the NFL. They were +650 to make the playoffs entering the season, they were +105 in Week 14 and are now +350.
+ Zach Wilson vs Mike White this season
- Wilson: 5-3 SU/ATS, 42.4 QBR, -10.5% DVOA
- White: 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS, 49. QBR, +12.5% DVOA
+ Mike White passing yards prop is 3-0 to the over (BUF, MIN, CHI)
+ Over the past 20 years, no Jets coach is above .500 ATS
- Eric Mangini 24-24-1
- Rex Ryan 50-50-2
- Robert Saleh 14-17
- Herm Edwards 21-25-4
- Todd Bowles 28-32-4
- Adam Gase 13-19
| Daniel Jones, NYG | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
10-4 ATS 8-5-1 SU | 29-22 ATS 20-30-1 SU | 16-7 ATS 8-15 SU |
| Kirk Cousins, MIN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
6-7-1 ATS 11-3 SU | 68-67-2 ATS 71-64-2 SU | 32-35-1 ATS 42-26 SU |
+ Giants went over their preseason win total with a win over the Commanders last week, breaking the longest active over or under win total streak. Giants under win total in 5 straight years and 8 of last 9, including 9-1-1 since 2011 entering this year.
+ The under is 33-13-1 (72%) in Giants games since the start of the 2020 season, the most profitable team to the under.
+ Giants are 10-4 ATS this season. Their best ATS start through 14 games since starting 10-4 ATS in 2008.
+ Giants are 6-3-1 SU and 8-2 ATS as underdogs this season, they were 6-10 ATS as underdogs last season (NY is most profitable team this season ATS as underdogs).
+ Giants are the most profitable team SU in the NFL this season. 8-5-1 SU, a $100 bettor up $762.
+ The Vikings are now 11-3 with a +2 point differential, including 10-0 SU in one-score games.
+ Cousins with Vikings: 38-39-2 ATS, 30-28 ATS with Washington.
- 1p ET or earlier: 47-36-2 ATS
- 4p ET or later: 21-31 ATS
+ With their victory over the Colts in Week 14, the Vikings have won 13 consecutive games as a favorite, dating back to last season. That is the longest current streak in the NFL.
Vikings last loss as a favorite? December 5, 2021 vs. Lions
+ Justin Jefferson is 341 yards away from breaking Calvin Johnson’s record for most receiving yards in a season (1,964 back in 2012).
+ Cousins is 28-38-2 ATS after a SU win in his career, including 17-30-2 ATS after a SU win since 2017, least profitable QB ATS in the NFL.
+ Teams after facing the Colts this season are 10-2-1 ATS in their next game.
+ Vikings are 1 of 8 teams in the NFL whose games have gone over the total more than under the total this season (CHI, PHI, DAL, SEA, ARI, MIN, JAC, DET).
| Andy Dalton, NO | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
5-6 ATS 4-7 SU | 81-75-6 ATS 80-80-2 SU | 39-37-3 ATS 33-46 SU |
| Deshaun Watson, CLE | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
2-1 ATS 2-1 SU | 31-28 ATS 28-29-2 SU | 13-16 ATS 17-12 SU |
+ Weather alert: 20-25+ MPH winds, under 20 degrees
Last 20 years, we’ve seen 52 games with 20 MPH winds or greater.
- Under is 29-23 (56%), winning 6 in a row dating back to 2020.
- Of the 52 games, 28 had a total below 40 (16-12 to the under).
- Of the 52 games, only six had temperatures of 20 degrees or colder. Those games averaged a combined 28.8 PPG.
- Of the 52 games, 5 of the 8 coldest were in Cleveland. Final scores of those five games: 8-0, 23-17, 21-0, 13-6, 14-0.
Last 20 years, we’ve seen 61 games with temperatures below 20 degrees.
- Over is 33-26-2 (56%), winning 9 of the past 11 games in this spot dating back to 2017.
- In games below 20 degrees in Cleveland though, an average of 23.5 PPG have been scored in four games over the past 20 years.
How over has performed in cold games (under 20°) depending on wind:
- Under 10 MPH: 23-16 to over
- 10 MPH or greater: 10-10-2
+ Andy Dalton in bad weather conditions.
- Cold doesn’t bother Andy. Three games below 25 degrees, his teams average 27 PPG.
- Dalton hasn’t played in a game with over 15 MPH winds since the Bengals 2014-15 playoff game in Indianapolis (lost 26-10).
+ Teams after facing the Falcons this season are 2-10-1 SU in their next game, including 0-9-1 SU in their past 10 games.
+ Andy Dalton career based off of rest leading up to the game.
- Short rest (6 days or less): 9-14-1 ATS
- Normal rest (7 days): 54-42-4 ATS
- Extended rest (8 days or more): 12-16 ATS
+ Saints are 1-5 ATS in their past six road games and they’ve lost five straight road games SU.
Saints haven’t lost 5 straight road games since 2014. Saints haven’t lost 5 straight road games SU in the same season since 2005.
+ Deshaun Watson is 15-7 SU vs. under .500 teams and 9-15 SU vs. teams above .500 SU. Watson is only 11-16-2 (41%) ATS as a favorite since 2018
+ Watson was listed as a home favorite 20 times with the Texans and he finished 8-12 ATS. He’s 1-0 SU/ATS in this spot with the Browns.
+ How Browns performed under Jacoby Brissett: 4-7 SU, 5-5-1 ATS (7-4 to the over)
+ In 11 games with Jacoby Brissett, Browns produced NFL's 5th-ranked offense (EPA per drive). Behind only: Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins, Eagles. Defense (28th in EPA/drive) and bad luck in 1-score games more to blame for 4-7 record.
+ Browns past 3 home games have all gone under the total after starting the season 4-0 to the over.
+ Teams after facing the Ravens this season are 10-2-1 ATS in their next game.
+ Browns beat the Ravens in Week 15. Cleveland is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS under Kevin Stefanski in their past 10 games after a SU win.
+ Browns are 500-1 to win it all as of now, their longest odds this season.
+ Browns can go under their preseason win total (8) with a loss vs. Saints.
+ Stefanski with Browns
- Favorite: 19-8 SU, 10-17 ATS
- Dog: 6-15 SU, 11-9-1 ATS
+ Browns have struggled offensively lately, scoring less than 14 pts in consecutive games. In a teams 8th game or later, when they score 14 pts or less in consecutive games, they are 108-72-5 (60%) against the first half spread since 2005 in their next game.
| Jared Goff, DET | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
10-4 ATS 7-7 SU | 55-45-2 ATS 54-47-1 SU | 27-22 ATS 25-23-1 SU |
| Sam Darnold, CAR | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
2-1 ATS 2-1 SU | 20-31-1 ATS 19-33 SU | 12-13-1 ATS 11-15 SU |
+ Jared Goff is 27-13 ATS when playing in the 1p ET window or earlier, covering 7 in a row in 2022. He is 26-29-2 ATS (47%) in all other games.
+ Dan Campbell's Coach of the Year odds:
He was 250-1 entering Week 13 (Jags-Lions). 150-1 entering Week 14, 9-1 entering Week 15, +175 entering Week 16.
+ Jamaal Williams is tied with Austin Ekeler for the NFL rushing TD lead with 14. Williams was 150-1 to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns in the preseason. Ekeler was 22-1 to lead the NFL in the preseason.
+ Lions have covered the spread in 7 consecutive games, they haven’t covered 7 straight games since 2011 (covered 7 straight between 2010 and 2011).The last time Detroit covered 7 straight in the same season? 1991, the last time the Lions made it past the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
+ Lions are down to 50-1 to win it all, their shortest odds to win the Super Bowl since being 50-1 in Week 4 of the 2019 season.
+ This week, the Lions travel to Carolina and will play outdoors. Not great for Jared Goff.
- Goff career outdoors: 30-32-2 ATS
- Indoors: 25-13 ATS
+ Goff has played four games in sub-35 degree weather: 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS (Points scored: 6, 23, 18, 3)
+ Under Dan Campbell and Sean McVay, Goff is 55-38-2 ATS (59%). Under John Fassel and Jeff Fisher he was 0-7 ATS.
Since 2019, only Joe Burrow is more profitable ATS than Jared Goff.
+ Lions are 1 of 8 teams in the NFL whose games have gone over the total more than under the total this season (CHI, PHI, DAL, SEA, ARI, MIN, JAC, DET).
+ Lions and Falcons are coming off a road game in New York vs. the Jets and in New Orleans vs. the Saints. Teams after playing in L.A., Atlanta, New York, Vegas, Miami and New Orleans, who play on the road again, are 51-82-5 ATS (38.3%) over the past decade.
+ Sam Darnold gets the start for the Panthers. Since Darnold’s first start in 2018, he's ranked 109th of 112 QBs against the spread: 20-31-1 ATS.
+ Coldest temperature games of Sam Darnold's career
- 30 – NYJ/BUF (2018; W, 27-23)
- 32 – NYJ/BAL (2019; L, 42-21)
- 33 – NYJ/NE (2018; L, 38-3)
+ Sam Darnold vs. PJ Walker this season
- Darnold: 2-1 SU/ATS, 47.2 QBR, +28.3% DVOA
- Walker: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 23 QBR, -29% DVOA
Under has hit in 5 of PJ Walker's 7 career starts.
+ Panthers are 5-16 SU, 7-14 ATS in their past 21 games. Including 4-10 SU/ATS in their past 14 home games.
+ Panthers accumulated just 21 rushing yards in their home loss against the Steelers last week. Since 2016, teams to rush for fewer than 50 yards at home and then play at home again are just 25-45-1 ATS (35.7%)
+ Panthers SU record by sack total on Sam Darnold.
- 2 or fewer: 5-2 SU
- 3 or more: 1-7 SU
+ Historically, the Panthers have performed well against high octane opponents. Facing teams scoring 24+ PPG and allowing 24+ PPG, Carolina is 29-14-1 ATS over the past 20 years. However, recently they have covered in 6 in a row dating back to 2020 and are 9-1-1 ATS since 2019.
| Joe Burrow, CIN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
11-3 ATS 10-4 SU | 30-14 ATS 25-18-1 SU | 16-7 ATS 12-10-1 SU |
| Mac Jones, NE | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
4-6-1 ATS 5-6 SU | 14-14-1 ATS 15-14 SU | 7-7 ATS 6-8 SU |
+ Bengals are down to +750 to win the Super Bowl, their lowest odds of the season.
+ Burrow career: 25-18-1 SU, 30-14 ATS (+$1,351). Most profitable QB ATS since 2020.
+ Burrow is 18-3 ATS in his past 21 starts.
+ Bengals are 19-3 ATS in their past 22 games. They are the most profitable team ATS in the NFL over the past two seasons, including the playoffs (25-10 ATS).
+ Bengals have won and covered 6 straight games. Last time Bengals won and covered six straight? To start the 1988 season (6-0 SU/ATS), which ended in a loss in the Super Bowl vs. the 49ers.
Last time they won and covered 7 straight? All the way back in 1970 (won and covered 7 straight at the end of the season).
+ Bengals went over their preseason win total with a win over the Buccaneers last week. Cincinnati has gone over its preseason win total in consecutive years for the first time since 2011-15.
+ Burrow is 20-6 ATS vs. teams .500 or above. In the past 20 years, he’s the 6th-most profitable QB ATS vs. team .500 or above.
Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Russ, Ben, Burrow
+ In Joe Burrow’s career, he is 31-12-1 (72%) against the second half spread, including 12-2 this season and 27-6-1 (82%) over the -past two seasons.
+ Burrow is 17-7 ATS away from home, most profitable QB ATS since 2020.
+ Burrow has excelled in cold temperatures
- 50 degrees or less: 10-2 SU, 11-1 ATS
- 40 degrees or less: 5-0 SU/ATS
+ How Patriots have performed by time window since 2018:
- 1p ET: 25-14-1 ATS
- 4p ET: 6-9-1 ATS
- Night: 11-15 ATS
+ Since 2003, Belichick is 29-17-1 ATS on short rest, including 5-6 ATS without Tom Brady in that spot.
+ Mac Jones: 15-14 SU, 14-14-1 ATS career. 6-10 SU, 5-10-1 ATS past 16 starts.
+ Bill Belichick career with Patriots ATS:
- With Tom Brady: 187-127-10 ATS
- W/O Tom Brady: 43-41-1 ATS
+ Belichick is 38-12 SU, 41-8-1 ATS after a loss as either an underdog or under a TD favorite over the past 20 years in the regular season.
- + Belichick as home underdog: 10-10 SU, 13-7 ATS with Patriots.
- + Between 2000-02, he was home dog 10 times.
- + Between 2003-13, he was home dog once (between 2003-2019; three times)
- + Between 2020-22, he has been a home dog eight times.
+ Patriots allowed 30 pts vs. Raiders last week. Over the past 20 years, the Patriots are 39-10 SU, 36-13 ATS after allowing 30 pts or more in previous game.
+ Teams after facing the Raiders are 19-28 SU, 16-31 ATS since 2020, including 4-14 SU in their past 18 games dating back to 2021.
The 16-31 ATS mark is the worst for any previous opponent in the NFL.
Teams after facing the Raiders in Vegas since moving there in 2020: 11-12 SU, 8-15 ATS (2-6 ATS past 8 games)
+ The Patriots are averaging 2.3 points in the first quarter this season, 31st in the NFL.
+ Matthew Judon (14.5) is a full sack behind Nick Bosa (15.5) for the sack lead in the NFL. Judon was 25-1 to lead the category in the preseason.
+ Belichick ATS past 20 years by over/under
- Under 40: 35-12-1 ATS (74.5%)
- Under 42: 53-25-2 ATS (67%)
- Under 45: 94-56-5 ATS (63%)
- 45+: 110-88-5 ATS (55.6%)
| Josh Allen, BUF | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
5-8-1 ATS 11-3 SU | 42-33-5 ATS 53-27 SU | 5-6-1 ATS 9-3 SU |
| Justin Fields, CHI | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
5-8 ATS 3-10 SU | 7-16 ATS 5-18 SU | 3-9 ATS 3-9 SU |
+ Since Week 14, the Bills have been favorites to win the Super Bowl ahead of the Chiefs.
+ Bears are allowing 25.6 PPG this season. Josh Allen has excelled vs. good defenses and struggled against bad defenses in terms of covering the spread.
- Vs. teams allowing more than 24 PPG: 15-15-4 ATS
- Vs. teams allowing 20-24 PPG: 10-13 ATS
- Vs. teams allowing less than 20 PPG: 14-4-1 ATS
+ Allen: 5-0 SU, 1-3-1 ATS vs. teams allowing 24 PPG or more this season (won 8 straight games SU dating back to last season).
+ Since 2020, Josh Allen is 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS in December.
+ The under is 9-3 in the Bills last 12 games.
+ The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 48-29-3 against the second half spread.
In the month of December, Allen is 13-6-1 against the second half spread, covering 8 of the past 11 in the spot since 2020.
+ Bills road games are 7-0 to the under in 2022, going under the total by 9.3 PPG.
Teams to go undefeated to over or under on road past 20 years:
- 2020 Cardinals, 8-0 road unders
- 2016 Cardinals, 8-0 road overs
- 2010 Jets, 8-0 road overs
+ 11-3 Bills face off against the 3-11 Bears. Beware of the record advantages.
Teams with 65%+ win pct vs. teams with 25% win pct or less since 2016: 71-104-3 ATS. Since 2020 those teams are 30-57-2 ATS (34.5%).
+ Bills are 1-6-1 ATS in their past 8 games.
+ Bears are 4-10 against the first half spread this season (2nd-worst in the NFL).
+ Bears/Eagles went under the total last week, but Bears games are 8-2 to the over in their past 10 games. Bears are 9-5 to the over this season, T-best in NFL.
+ Bears have lost 7 consecutive games SU. 2014-15 is the last time the Bears lost 7 straight games at any point and 2002 is the last time they lost 7 straight in the same season (lost 8 straight).
+ Justin Fields is 8-15 ATS as a starting QB, including 7-13 ATS as an underdog.
+ Fields vs. above .500 teams: 1-10 SU, 5-6 ATS (lost 10 consecutive games SU)
+ Over the past two seasons, the Bears are 4-21 SU as underdogs, least profitable team on ML as dogs in the NFL (-$1,100).
+ Bears continue to be the best rushing attack in the NFL. They are 9th in rush offense DVOA.
- 1st – yds/rush
- 1st – rush yds
- 1st – rush yds/game
+ Justin Fields has been sacked a league high 46 times this season.
+ Bears are 1 of 8 teams in the NFL whose games have gone over the total more than under the total this season (CHI, PHI, DAL, SEA, ARI, MIN, JAC, DET).
| Davis Mills, HOU | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
7-5 ATS 1-10-1 SU | 12-11 ATS 3-19-1 SU | 5-6 ATS 2-9 SU |
| Malik Willis, TENN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
1-0 ATS 1-0 SU | 1-0 ATS 1-0 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU |
+ Texans are 9-37-1 SU since the start of the 2020 season.
+ The Texans have lost 9 straight games SU. 7 of those 9 losses have been by 7 pts or more (lost to Chiefs by 6 and Cowboys by 4 past two weeks).
+ Davis Mills is 14-9 against the first half spread in his career.
+ Week 16 is Davis Mills’ 24th career start, all 24 as an underdog (12-11 ATS). Overall, Mills is 3-19-1 SU in his career.
+ As underdogs of over a FG (more than 3 pts) on the road, the Texans are 9-49 SU and 25-32-1 ATS since 2010.
+ Texans were 14.5-pt underdogs vs. the Chiefs last week. Since 2015, teams listed as a 14-pt underdog or higher in their previous game are 37-22 (62.7%) against the first half spread in their next game.
+ Teams after facing the Chiefs this season are 10-3 SU in their next game, including winning 9 of their past 10 games.
+ Titans have lost 4 games in a row SU (0-3-1 ATS).
- Titans first 4-game losing streak under Mike Vrabel.
- Titans last lost 4 straight at the end of the 2015 and start of the 2016 season when they lost 5 straight. They haven’t lost 5 straight games SU in the same season since losing 6 straight in 2015.
+ Titans are 3-10-1 against the second half spread this season, tied for the least profitable team against the second half spread in the NFL.
+ Titans have now gone four straight games without covering the spread (0-3-1 ATS). Under Vrabel, the Titans have never gone five straight games without a cover.
+ The under has cashed in 8 of the past 11 Titans games.
+ Late-season divisional unders in the early window have gone 215-159-9 (57.5%) since 2003 (Dec or later in regular season and 1p ET or earlier).
+ Titans are 10-4 against the first half spread, T-2nd best 1H ATS win pct. in the NFL.
| Geno Smith, SEA | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
6-8 ATS 7-7 SU | 25-21-2 ATS 20-28 SU | 11-9-2 ATS 8-14 SU |
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
4-10 ATS 11-3 SU | 45-41-2 ATS 69-19 SU | 21-23-1 ATS 36-9 SU |
+ Seahawks have lost 5 consecutive games ATS.
- Geno Smith’s first 5-game ATS losing streak of his career (47 career starts)
- Seahawks first 5-game ATS losing streak since the end of the 2004 and start of the 2005 season when they lost 5 consecutive games ATS. Seattle hasn’t lost 5 consecutive games ATS in the same season since failing to cover 5 straight back in 2003.
- Seattle’s last 6-game single-season ATS losing streak? 2000 (Seahawks lost 6 straight ATS).
+ Seahawks have the largest margin to the over of any team in the NFL. Their games are going over the total by 5.3 PPG.
+ Seahawks are 150-1 to win it all, their longest odds since being 300-1 back in Week 7.
+ Geno Smith is 11-8 ATS in his past 19 starts dating back to 2016.
+ Entering the game vs. the 49ers, Geno Smith was -700 to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award (he was -900 the week prior). He is now down to +115, with Christian McCaffrey (+175) and Jared Goff (+225) coming up strong.
+ Teams after facing the 49ers this season are 1-12 SU, 3-9-1 ATS in their next game, the worst record in the NFL.
+ On extended rest, Pete Carroll is 0-6 SU since the start of the 2021 season (lost 4 straight ATS).
+ Seahawks are 1 of 8 teams in the NFL whose games have gone over the total more than under the total this season (CHI, PHI, DAL, SEA, ARI, MIN, JAC, DET).
+ 49ers, Seahawks and Dolphins are all on extended rest this week, facing opponents on short rest. This season, those teams on extended rest vs. teams on short rest are 4-0 ATS. Between 2010 and 2021, those same teams were 39-48-1 ATS.
+ Mahomes leads NFL in passing yards (4,496). He leads by over 450 yards. He was +800 entering the season.
He’s -103 at BetRivers to break the single-season record of 5,477. Needs 982 passing yards to break the record.
+ Mahomes performs better ATS away from home
- Home: 21-23-1 ATS
- Road/Neutral: 24-18-1 ATS
+ Patrick Mahomes career against the spread:
- As favorite of 3.5 or more: 28-35-1 ATS
- As favorite of 3 or less (or underdog): 17-6-1 ATS
+ Mahomes in November and December in his career: 34-5 SU, 17-20-2 ATS
Mahomes had his has 26-game SU win streak in November and December snapped vs. Bengals in Week 13.
+ Chiefs are 6-1 to the under at home this season and 6-1 to the over on the road.
+ The Chiefs trailed the Bengals 14-10 at the half in Week 13 and lost. In Week 15, they trailed the Texans 14-13 at half and won.
Kansas City has won 6 of its past 7 games in which it trailed at halftime. The six straight wins was the longest streak by any NFL team (reg & post) since the 49ers won 7 straight from 1989-90.
+ Mahomes is just 1-9 ATS this season after a SU win and 15-24 ATS after a win since 2020.
+ Patrick Mahomes (-275) is the favorite to win MVP again, ahead of Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. Mahomes MVP odds: opened 8-1, 5-1 Week 4, 4-1 Week 8, 2-1 Week 10, +120 Week 14
+ Under is now 53-37-1 (59%) at Arrowhead with Andy Reid in KC.
When the Chiefs are 7-pt favorites or higher, under is 30-13-1 (70%).
| Desmond Ridder, ATL | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
1-0 ATS 0-1 SU | 1-0 ATS 0-1 SU | 1-0 ATS 0-1 SU |
| Tyler Huntley, BAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
1-1 ATS 1-1 SU | 4-2 ATS 2-4 SU | 2-1 ATS 0-3 SU |
+ Desmond Ridder gets his 2nd career start this week against the Ravens. Rookie QBs are 9-7 SU, 11-5 ATS entering Week 16.
+ After starting 6-0 ATS, Falcons are just 2-6 ATS since.
+ 6-0 ATS teams past decade after hot start …
- 2022 Falcons: 6-0 ATS -> 2-6 ATS
- 2021 Cowboys: 6-0 ATS -> 7-5 ATS
- 2018 Chiefs: 6-0 ATS -> 4-7-1 ATS
+ Marcus Mariota started 6-0 ATS and finished 1-6 ATS. His Y/A was 8 in Sept/Oct and 6.5 in Nov/Dec.
+ Falcons are 1-8 SU (4-4-1 ATS) in their past nine road games.
+ Falcons have gone under their team total in their past five road games (less than 20 pts in all five games).
+ Lions and Falcons are coming off a road game in New York vs. the Jets and in New Orleans vs. the Saints. Teams after playing in L.A., Atlanta, New York, Vegas, Miami and New Orleans, who play on the road again, are 51-82-5 ATS (38.3%) over the past decade.
+ Both the Falcons and the Ravens offenses have been struggling lately.
- The Falcons have scored fewer than 20 points in three consecutive games for the first time since 2018.
- The Ravens have scored fewer than 20 points in three consecutive games for just the third time since 2016. The previous two times, they actually lost the next game, averaging just 20.5 PPG.
- Since 2019, teams to score fewer than 20 points in three straight games are 61-40 ATS (60.4%), but when they are listed as an underdog they are 52-29 ATS (64.2%).
+ The under has cashed in 5 of the past 6 Falcons games, including going 8-3 in their past 11 games overall.
+ The Falcons have played seven games in the past 20 years in freezing temperatures (32° or colder). They are 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS, with their last win coming back in 2009.
+ For the Ravens, it's all about motivation. After coming off facing a divisional opponent, as long as they don’t win by double-digits, they are 39-23-1 ATS in their next game. If they beat that divisional team by double-digits, they are 9-11-1 ATS in their next game under John Harbaugh.
+ Lamar Jackson is 46-19 SU and 33-32 ATS in his career. Since his first start in 2018, four other Ravens QBs have made a start — Robert Griffin, Josh Johnson, Joe Flacco and Tyler Huntley. Those QBs are 7-11 SU/ATS.
+ Between 2016 and 2021, John Harbaugh was 63-36-2 against the first half spread. This season, the Ravens are 5-8-1 against the first half spread.
+ Since 2018, Harbaugh has dominated inferior opponents in terms of record. Ravens are 26-6 SU, but just 15-17 ATS in games vs. under .500 opponents.
In that span, the Ravens are 13-1 SU (6-8 ATS) at home. Their only loss? 2019 at home vs. Browns/Baker Mayfield.
+ Ravens scored just 3 points on the road against the Browns last week. Teams to score 6 pts or less are 11-2 1H ATS this season in their next game and 107-73-7 1H ATS (59.4%) since 2014.
+ Ravens haven’t won and covered a home game since November of last season (8 games).
+ Ravens since 2017…
- Home: 21-28 ATS (1-5 ATS this season)
- Road: 30-18-1 ATS (5-3 ATS this season)
+ Ravens WR haven’t caught a TD since Week 3 (Devin Duvernay) and a Ravens WR hasn’t scored a TD since Week 8 (Duvernay).
| Taylor Heinicke, WAS | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
5-2-1 ATS 5-2-1 SU | 13-11-1 ATS 12-12-1 SU | 7-5 ATS 7-5 SU |
| Brock Purdy, SF | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
2-0 ATS 2-0 SU | 2-0 ATS 2-0 SU | 1-0 ATS 1-0 SU |
+ Even after a loss to the Giants, Taylor Heinicke has kept Washington in the hunt. He is 11-4-1 ATS in his past 16 starts
+ Since Week 3, Commanders games are 9-2-1 to the under.
+ Commanders are 6-2-1 SU/ATS in their past nine games.
+ Commanders can go over their preseason win total (7.5) with a win over the 49ers.
- “Taylor Heinicke’s contract, a two-year, $4.5-million deal he signed this past offseason, includes an incentive for each game he wins. The 28-year-old signal caller nets an extra $125,000 for each win that he plays at least 60% of the snaps.”
+ The Commanders have held opposing QBs under their passing yards prop in 8 consecutive games and in 10 of their past 11 games.
+ Road teams traveling from EST to PST have performed well recently, going 63-42-5 ATS (60%) since 2016.
+ 49ers record when Deebo Samuel is involved in the action and when he isn’t.
49ers Record When Deebo Gets at Least One Target:
- With: 32-16 SU
- Without: 6-8 SU
+ Commanders allow 19.7 PPG this season, which ranks in the top-10 in the NFL.
Kyle Shanahan is 15-26-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 24 PPG or more and 37-16 ATS vs. teams that allow under 24 PPG for the season.
+ Shanahan likes to stay west. With the 49ers, he is 21-11 SU, 20-11-1 ATS when San Francisco plays in the Pacific Time Zone after playing in the PST in their previous game as well.
+ The 49ers defense has outscored opponents 87-24 in second halves of their past 7 games.
+ Brock Purdy is 1st QB drafted in 7th round to be favored in first three career starts since Ty Detmer in 1996 and Elvis Grbac in 1995.
Rookie QBs are 9-7 SU, 11-5 ATS entering Week 16.
+ The 49ers are 42-19 straight up and 35-25-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB. With all other QB in that span? They are 11-29 SU and 18-22 ATS.
+ Disadvantage to traveling to Seattle? Teams the week after a road game in Seattle are 27-17-1 ATS since 2017, including 12-2 ATS over the past two seasons.
+ 49ers are 2-30 SU when trailing by 3+ pts entering 4th quarter under Kyle Shanahan.
+ Kyle Shanahan ATS with 49ers by QB
- Garoppolo: 35-25-1 ATS
- Others: 18-22 ATS
+ Defensive POY battle.
- Nick Bosa: -130
- Micah Parsons: +100
Parsons was -500 entering Week 14 and -275 in Week 15
+ Matthew Judon (14.5) is a full sack behind Nick Bosa (15.5) for the sack lead in the NFL. Bosa was 14-1 to lead the category in the preseason.
+ 49ers since getting Christian McCaffrey full time in Week 8: 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS.
- Weeks 1-9 DVOA – Pass: 9th | Rush: 25th
- Weeks 10-17 DVOA – Pass: 1st | Rush: 8th
+ 49ers, Seahawks and Dolphins are all on extended rest this week, facing opponents on short rest. This season, those teams on extended rest vs. teams on short rest are 4-0 ATS. Between 2010 and 2021, those same teams were 39-48-1 ATS.
| Gardner Minshew, PHI | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
0-0 ATS 0-0 SU | 10-12 ATS 8-14 SU | 6-6 ATS 4-8 SU |
| Dak Prescott, DAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
4-5 ATS 6-3 SU | 52-44-2 ATS 60-38 SU | 26-25-1 ATS 35-17 SU |
+ After Jalen Hurts’ injury, he has moved from the -165 favorite to the +450 2nd choice to be the MVP. Mahomes is the -275 favorite.
MVP odds move: May 1 40-1, Wk1 22-1, Wk2 16-1, Wk3 10-1, Wk4 7-1, Wk9 +350, Wk 14 +150, Wk 15 -165
+ If Hurts cannot start, the Eagles will play Gardner Minshew.
- Minshew is 8-14 SU and 10-12 ATS in his NFL career.
- Minshew is 5-11 SU as an underdog, losing his past 7 starts SU as a dog (1-6 ATS, losing six straight starts SU/ATS as a dog).
- In October or later, Minshew is 5-11 SU/ATS in his career, including 1-9 SU/ATS when facing teams allowing 25 PPG or fewer.
+ With Minshew starting, Eagles would be 13th team in December or later to be an underdog with a 90%+ win pct. The previous 12 teams were 2-10 SU in that game.
+ Jalen Hurts has performed much better at home vs. road ATS in his career.
- Home: 11-4-1 ATS
- Road: 6-12 ATS – He’s been under .500 ATS on the road each of his 3 seasons in the NFL.
+ Eagles are 8-17 ATS on the road since 2020, the least profitable road team ATS in that span.
+ In December or later over the last 20 years, teams with a 90%+ win pct are 26-54-1 ATS (32.5%).
When those teams play away from home, they are 9-33-1 ATS (21.4%)
+ Eagles and Cowboys are 2 of the 8 teams in the NFL whose games have gone over the total more than under the total this season (CHI, PHI, DAL, SEA, ARI, MIN, JAC, DET).
+ Dak Prescott has thrown an interception in 4 straight games and in 6 of his past 7 games.
+ Dak Prescott is 26-6 SU and 23-9 ATS vs. NFC East in his career.
Dak’s 23-9 ATS mark is the 4th-most profitable vs. divisional opponents in the past 20 years: Rodgers, Ben, Brady, Dak.
+ Cowboys can go over their preseason win total (10) with a win vs. Eagles. Cowboys went over last season, too. Dallas hasn’t gone over its win total in consecutive years since 1994-95.
+ Micah Parsons is no longer the favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year Award. He was -275 last week and -500 the week prior. Nick Bosa is now the favorite at -130.
+ Dak Prescott is 52-44-2 ATS (54.2%) in his career.
24-11-2 ATS (69%) vs. opponents below .500 SU
- +$1,177 – 2nd to Brady since 2005
15-24 ATS (39%) vs. opponents above .500 SU
- -$982 – 239th of 246 QBs since 2005
+ The over has cashed in four straight Cowboys home games. Prior to that, the under had cashed in six straight Cowboys home games. December home overs have cashed in 7 straight games for Cowboys and are 8-1 since 2018.
| Derek Carr, LV | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
7-7 ATS 6-8 SU | 68-72-2 ATS 63-79 SU | XX ATS XX SU |
| Kenny Pickett, PIT | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
5-4 ATS 4-5 SU | 5-4 ATS 4-5 SU | 2-2 ATS 2-2 SU |
+ Derek Carr is just 12-13 SU, but 14-9-2 ATS playing in night games
Carr is only 1-7 SU on the road in his career in night games (lost 5 straight)
+ Raiders are 2-6 SU on the road this year and 2-7 SU in their last 9 road games overall.
+ Derek Carr is 19-29-1 ATS on the road since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (116 of 116 QBs).
+ Raiders are 0-4 this season when leading by double digits at halftime. They are first team since at least 1930 to lose 4 times in a season when leading by double digits at the half.
+ Josh Jacobs leads the NFL in rushing (1,495). He leads by almost 200 yards over Derrick Henry. Jacobs was -165 to lead the NFL in rushing in Week 14 and was 40-1 to lead the league in the preseason.
+ Raiders can go under their preseason win total (8.5) with a loss vs. Steelers.
+ Davante Adams has gone over his longest reception prop in 6 of his last 7 games.
+ Davante Adams has caught a touchdown pass from Derek Carr in 17 of 23 games together, dating back to their Fresno State days.
+ Derek Carr is facing a defense allowing more than 21 PPG on the season with the Steelers – he is 31-51-2 ATS in games vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or more. Of the 252 QBs in Bet Labs database over the last 20 years, Carr is the least profitable ATS in this spot.
+ Raiders played at home vs. Patriots in Week 15. Last decade, MST/PST teams coming off a home game to playing on road in EST are 80-59-3 ATS (57.6%).
+ PST and MST teams on the road in EST are 59-33-2 ATS (64%) since 2019, including 7-3-1 ATS this season.
+ Steelers now have to go 3-0 down the stretch to avoid Mike Tomlin's first losing season in his 16 years as head coach of the Steelers: Las Vegas, at Baltimore, Cleveland.
+ December has been a tough month in Pittsburgh. Steelers are 10-17 ATS in December since 2017, the 2nd-least profitable team ATS in December in that span.
+ With T.J. Watt in action since drafting him in 2017, the Steelers are 56-26-2 straight up, without Watt, they’re 1-10 straight up.
+ Opposing QBs have gone over their completions prop vs. Raiders in 11 of their last 15 games dating back to last season (not including Rams game).
+ Mitch Trubisky vs. Kenny Pickett this season
- MT: 2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS, 57.5 QBR, +3.3% DVOA
- KP: 4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS, 45.2 QBR, -12.2% DVOA
+ Tomlin on short rest: 22-19-1 SU, 19-20-3 ATS
- As favorite == 17-8-1 SU, 11-14-1 ATS
- As underdog == 5-11 SU, 8-6-2 ATS
| Aaron Rodgers, GB | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
6-8 ATS 6-8 SU | 137-99-5 ATS 156-84-1 SU | 64-56-1 ATS 63-58 SU |
| Tua Tagovailoa, MIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
7-5 ATS 8-4 SU | 19-13-1 ATS 21-12 SU | 12-4 ATS 13-3 SU |
+ When it comes to Rodgers’ passing yards, 260 seems to be a key number. Dating back to last season, he’s been under that number in 15 of his last 16 starts (over vs. Lions). He’s gone under 250 yards in 9 of his last 10 starts.
+ Rodgers is 4-9-1 against the second half spread this season, 4th-least profitable QB against the 2nd half spread in the NFL. He’s 5-13-1 2H ATS in his last 19 games overall.
+ Packers opened season -450 to make playoffs, they are +650 now.
+ The Packers have won 14 consecutive games in December, tying the second-longest such streak in NFL history. The only team with a longer streak of December wins was the Chargers, who won 18 straight in the calendar's final month in 2006 to 2009.
+ Dolphins can push the over on their preseason win total (9) with a win vs. Packers.
+ Dolphins are back to 35-1 to win it all, their highest odds since Week 7.
+ Dolphins are 16-7 SU in its last 23 games.
+ Tua prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 12-4 ATS at home and 7-9-1 ATS away from home in his career.
+ Dolphins are 5-1 to the under at home this season and 6-2 to the over on the road.
+ 49ers, Seahawks and Dolphins are all on extended rest this week, facing opponents on short rest. This season, those teams on extended rest vs. teams on short rest are 4-0 ATS. Between 2010 and 2021, those same teams were 39-48-1 ATS.
+ Dolphins homefield advantage: 35-19 SU, 33-18-3 ATS since 2016 .. the best ATS team in the NFL. The biggest impact? Later in the season, in November or later since 2016, Miami is 23-7 SU, 22-6-2 ATS at home.
| Russell Wilson, DEN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
5-7 ATS 3-9 SU | 95-84-7 ATS 116-69-1 SU | 46-43-4 ATS 49-43-1 SU |
| Baker Mayfield, LAR | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
2-5 ATS 1-6 SU | 27-40-1 ATS 31-37 SU | 11-20-1 ATS 19-13 SU |
+ 11 of Denver’s last 14 games have gone under the total this season, the most profitable team to the under this season.
Dating back to the start of last season, the under is 23-8 (74%) in Broncos games, the best % in the NFL.
+ Since Peyton Manning left Denver at the end of 2015, Broncos are 19-28-2 ATS when listed as a favorite, failing to cover the spread in 7 of their last 8 games (beat Cardinals last week).
+ Broncos are 2-9 SU in their last 11 and 4-14 in their last 18 games overall.
+ Broncos have lost games where their opponent scored 10, 12, 16, 17, 17, 19 points this season.
- Broncos have failed to score 17 pts in ten games this season
- Broncos have lost 4 games this season where they led in the 4th quarter
+ Broncos have scored 21 total TDs this season, fewest in the NFL (next fewest is 23 by Texans & Colts).
+ The Broncos currently rank last in scoring and 3rd in points allowed. That's virtually unprecedented in the 32 team era. In fact, the last NFL team to finish with the fewest points scored and fewest points allowed was the 1946 Steelers.
+ Russell Wilson threw for 3 TDs in the loss to the Chiefs in his last start. In Wilson’s last 26 starts, here are his pass TD breakdowns. Under 1.5 in 15 of 26 games. Under 2.5 in 22 of 26 games.
- 0: 7
- 1: 8
- 2: 7
- 3+: 4
+ Baker Mayfield is 27-40-1 ATS in his career. In the last 20 years, 268 QBs have started a game, Mayfield is the 263rd ranked QB ATS.
+ Rams are 5-10-1 ATS in their last 16 games dating back to last season.
+ Rams are 4-10 SU this season. A $100 bettor would be down $685 betting L.A., the 3rd-least profitable team on the moneyline this season.
+ Rams were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 15 against the Packers. Los Angeles was +200 to miss the playoffs in the preseason.
+ The Broncos/Rams total is down to 36.5.
Lowest Totals in Dome Since 2008
- 35.5 – SF/STL (2011; 34-27)
- 36.5 – DEN/LAR (2022)
- 36.5 – CHI/MIN (2019; 21-19)
- 36.5 – SEA/ARI (2014; 35-6)
+ Sean McVay is 10-6 SU/ATS on short rest in his career as a coach, winning and covering 6 of their last 7 games on short rest. Since 2019, McVay is 9-3 ATS on short rest, the 3rd-most profitable coach on short rest in the NFL.
+ The Rams have tied the 1999 Broncos for the most losses by a defending Super Bowl champion (10).
+ Teams off a road game in Lambeau Field are 91-66-3 ATS (58%) in their next game, covering 6 of their last 8 games in the spot.
| Tom Brady, TB | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
3-10-1 ATS 6-8 SU | 212-154-11 ATS 278-93 SU | 95-77-3 ATS 116-57 SU |
| Trace McSorley, ARI | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
0-0 ATS 0-0 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU |
+ Tom Brady is 8-9 SU, 2-15 ATS in his last 17 starts at night (2-12 ATS at night with Bucs).
+ Over the last 20 years, Brady is 45-25-1 ATS (64.3%) after a SU loss. In 2022, he is 0-6-1 ATS.
Tom Brady's record when being up 17+ points at home: 89-1 (lost to Bengals).
+ Over the last two seasons, Brady is 0-2 SU/ATS in MST/PST. Between 2016 and 2020, Brady was 6-0 SU/ATS in MST/PST.
+ Fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year? Bucs with just 1,040 yards. The 2nd-fewest is the Chargers with 1,172 rushing yards.
+ Bucs team total unders are 12-2 this season.
+ Bucs road unders are 5-1 this season, going under the total by 10.6 PPG. One of the main reasons? Bucs points: 7, 17, 3, 18, 20, 19
+ Bucs are 30-1 to win the Super Bowl. They were as low as +700 entering Week 3.
+ Sports Odds History has midseason Super Bowl odds dating back to 2008. Brady has never been 30-1 or higher to win the SB prior to this week.
+ Buccaneers are failing to cover the spread by 6.3 PPG this season, worst ATS margin in the NFL.
+ Brady is 25-27-1 ATS with the Bucs, including 3-10-1 ATS this season.
- Brady’s worst ATS start to a season in his career.
- Brady and the Buccaneers are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games
+ In the first half, the under is 12-2 in the Buccaneers 14 games this season, best 1h under win pct this season.
+ Tom Brady threw 3 TD in the loss to the Bengals. In Brady’s last 16 starts for the Bucs, here are his pass TD breakdowns. Under 1.5 in 10 of 16 games. Under 2.5 in 14 of 16 games.
- 0: 1
- 1: 9
- 2: 4
- 3+: 2
+ Brady has lost 4 straight road games SU and ATS, the first time he’s done that in his NFL career.
+ Trace McSorley gets his first career start for the Cardinals against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
- Only one QB has defeated Tom Brady in his first career start. Brock Purdy, just two weeks ago.
- Prior to the matchup vs. Purdy, there were six quarterbacks who made their first career starts against Brady and lost — Luke McCown, Matt Flynn, Tyler Palko, Jake Locker, EJ Manuel and Luke Falk.
- Rookie QBs are 7-24 vs. Tom Brady in his career.
- The seven rookie signal callers to lead their teams to victories over a Tom Brady-led team include Brock Purdy (2022), Kenny Pickett (2022), Geno Smith (2013), Russell Wilson (2012), Colt McCoy (2010), Mark Sanchez (2009) and Ben Roethlisberger (2004).
- Kenny Pickett snapped Tom Brady’s 12-game SU winning streak when starting against a rookie QB. The last rookie to ever beat Brady was Geno Smith in Week 7, 2013 prior to that.
+ Cardinals are 5-9 against the 1st half spread this season, but they’ve won two 1st halves in a row against the Patriots, Chargers and Broncos.
+ Cardinals face a struggling offense in the Bucs this week. Kliff Kingsbury is 10-4 SU/ATS in 14 career games vs. teams scoring fewer than 20 PPG, including 2-1 SU/ATS this season (lost vs. Broncos last week).
+ Cardinals are 30th in DVOA this season according to Football Outsiders, the only teams worse? Texans and Colts.
+ Historically, the Cardinals have faded away after a loss this late in the season. They are 3-9 SU/ATS under Kingsbury after a loss in December or later.
+ Looking for parlay material? DeAndre Hopkins has accumulated 50+ receiving yards in 15 of his last 18 games, including 5 straight and 8 of 9.
+ Cardinals are 1 of 8 teams in the NFL whose games have gone over the total more than under the total this season (CHI, PHI, DAL, SEA, ARI, MIN, JAC, DET).
| Justin Herbert, LAC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
7-6-1 ATS 8-6 SU | 24-21-1 ATS 23-23 SU | 13-9 ATS 10-12 SU |
| Nick Foles, IND | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
0-0 ATS 0-0 SU | 30-32 ATS 33-29 SU | 15-17 ATS 18-14 SU |
+ Justin Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite
- Underdog: 11-6 ATS, 15-2 in 6-pt teasers
- Favorite: 13-15-1 ATS, 19-8 in 6-pt teasers
+ Herbert and the Chargers haven’t performed well off close wins. They are 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS this season after a win by 3 pts or less in their last game.
+ Chargers can go under their preseason win total (10.5) with a loss vs. Colts.
+ Justin Herbert is 12-30-4 (29%) against the second half spread in his career.
Herbert 2H in 2022: 3-9-2 ATS
+ Chargers O/U result under Brandon Staley based on what the total is.
- Under 50: 11-6 to over
- 50 or more: 9-5 to under
+ Herbert career: 23-23 SU, 24-21-1 ATS.
+ Herbert by time zone
- EST/CST: 11-4 ATS
- MST/PST: 13-17-1 ATS
+ Justin Herbert is 5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS in night games.
Herbert is 1-9-1 against 2H spread in primetime in his career – least profitable QB against 2H spread in primetime over the last decade.
+ Chargers are 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS on road this season. They are top-5 in road ATS profitability this season.
Chargers have finished .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 consecutive seasons, including this year.
+ Chargers played at home vs. Titans in Week 15. Last decade, MST/PST teams coming off a home game to playing on road in EST are 80-59-3 ATS (57.6%).
+ PST and MST teams on the road in EST are 59-33-2 ATS (64%) since 2019, including 7-3-1 ATS this season.
+ Jamaal Williams is currently tied with Austin Ekeler for the NFL rush TD lead with 14. Williams was 150-1 to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns in the preseason. Ekeler was 22-1 to lead the NFL in the preseason.
- Nick Foles gets the start for the Colts this week. Foles is 3-10 SU in his last thirteen starts dating back to his playoff loss with the Eagles against the Saints.
In Foles' only start last season, he beat the Seahawks in Seattle as the Bears starting QB. Chicago was a 7-point underdog.
+ Colts are 3-11 against the first half spread this season and are 3-13 in their last 16 first halves ATS dating back to last year.
In the second half this season, the Colts are 9-5 2H ATS
+ Colts 9-5 to the under this season – Colts under 14 of last 19 games.
+ In the first half, the under is 10-4 in the Colts 14 games this season, 2nd-best 1h under win pct this season behind the Bucs.
+ Colts are 7-7 on a 6-point teaser this season, T-the worst record of any team in the NFL.
+ The Chargers defense hasn’t lived up to expectations this season, allowing over 24 PPG. But recently, allowing less than 20 in consecutive games they’ve been in better form. Matt Ryan is 0-4 SU/ATS since 2019 when facing a “hot defense” – allowing less than 20 in consecutive games.
+ Both the Chargers and Colts allow 24+ PPG this season. Since 2016, when both teams allow 24+ PPG in December or later, the under is actually 44-34-5 (56.4%).
Market Movers
For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.
Biggest NFL Week 16 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 15; not including Thursday Night Football)
(-2.5) |
| 76% of bets at Panthers |
(-3) |
| 71% of bets at Patriots |
(-3.5) |
| 67% of bets vs. Texans |
Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 16
(The most popular bet games for Week 16; not including Thursday Night Football)
(+2.5) |
| 55,000 betting tickets |
(+8.5) |
| 52,000 betting tickets |
(+3) |
| 46,000 betting tickets |
Biggest Line Moves in Week 15
Spread Movers (lines compared to lookahead lines; not including Thursday Night Football):
(+4 to -2.5) |
| 6.5-pt move at Panthers |
(-3 to -8) |
| 5-pt move at Cardinals |
(+8 to +3.5) |
| 4.5-pt move at Titans |
The Sharp Report
If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks and historical betting systems.
Eagles vs. Cowboys odds have seen plenty of action early in NFL Week 16 as bettors wonder whether Jalen Hurts or Gardner Minshew will start at quarterback.
However, one of Bet Labs‘ expert systems doesn’t necessarily care who’s under center. Its top prediction for Eagles vs. Cowboys Week 16 was released earlier this week, and the opinion hasn’t changed.
Buccaneers at Cardinals Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
 | Moneyline | Edge |
| ARI +238 | ARI +300 | +4.6% (B- Grade) |
Our model's odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a B Grade 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
Top Props for Week 16: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bet: Under 12.5 rushing attempts (+105)
Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.
How to use the Action Network's PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.
The Big Picture
The Stat Sheet: Every week we will update first quarter, first half, full game and other trends for all 32 teams to help you easily navigate each team's strengths and weaknesses.
Super Bowl Movers: The Lions are on the rise, while the Bucs stay stagnant with three weeks to go.
SB: 50-1 (DET lowest odds since Week 4, 2019)
SB: 30-1 (Brady's longest midseason odds in 15 years)
Super Bowl Futures: Let's look into Super Bowl futures at BetMGM and how they have moved since the beginning of the season.
For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.
NFL Win Total Tracker
Here are your results through 15 weeks:
- Over: Jets, Seahawks, Falcons, Vikings, Eagles, Bengals, Lions, Giants, Chiefs
- Under: Rams, Packers, Colts, Broncos, Saints, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Texans
The Best Have Been The Worst
The 2022 season has been all about underdogs, which means fading the favorites entering the season.
Teams with above a win total of 10 entering this year are 37-57-4 ATS this season.
Teams: Bills, Buccaneers, Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, Chargers and Rams.
Least Profitable Teams ATS Since Oct. 1
- Bucs: 1-9-1 ATS
- Chiefs: 3-8 ATS
- Bills: 3-7-1 ATS
Just An Overreaction
So far this season, it's been profitable to back the inexperienced.
Backup QBs this year are 32-33 SU and 38-25-2 ATS, while rookie QBs are 9-7 SU and 11-5 ATS entering Week 16.
- The Favorites Podcast: This week, Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter make their picks under the mistletoe, hoping to smooch more NFL winners. NFL Week 16 slides down our betting chimney with lots of intriguing matchups for naughty and nice gamblers alike, starting with a surprisingly festive matchup in the Meadowlands on Thursday. But do you recall… the most infamous head coach of all? Embattled coach Kliff Kingsbury and his Arizona Cardinals anchor a Christmas slate against the flailing Buccaneers in a game that could leave gamblers struggling to keep their eggnog down.
- Action Network Podcast: As visions of sugar plums and underdogs dance in their heads, Action Network hosts Chris Raybon and Stuckey deliver their favorite yuletide bets for this special holiday week edition of the show.
Like the illuminated nose of the most reindeer of al, a NFC North underdog leads the way this week in the Sunday Six Pack. Later, under bettors find themselves dancing and prancing in Jingle Bell square, as bitterly frosty air impacts offenses across the country.
For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of 10 different options across eight different sports.
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