Sunday NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Jets vs. Falcons Betting Preview for Week 5
Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Cordarrelle Patterson.
- The Jets and Falcons play a standalone game from London on Sunday morning (9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network).
- New York won its first game of the Zach Wilson era last week, while Atlanta has one win as well but continues to sputter in close games.
- Phillip Kall breaks down his Jets vs. Falcons pick below.
Jets vs. Falcons Odds
| Jets Odds | +2.5 |
| Falcons Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 45 |
| Time | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | NFL Network |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
In the NFL's first London game since 2019, the New York Jets take on the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday morning.
The Jets found their first victory last week in a 27-24 overtime victory over Tennessee. Making the difference for New York was its defense. The Titans scored on their first three drives of the game, but they were crucially just a field goal each time, giving the Jets' sputtering offense time to get going.
Atlanta, meanwhile, looked set to cover their 1.5-point spread last week until J.D. Mckissic burst through and busted Falcons backers. The good news is Atlanta’s offense found a bit of a rhythm as they scored 30 points and produced 374 yards. Now they have to try to build on that success without star receiver Calvin Ridley.
Let’s see if we can find an angle we like to make waking up Sunday even more exciting.
Jets Finally Show Signs of Life
After two weeks of being blanketed by opposing defenses, the Jets showed signs of life offensively against the Titans.
New York's offensive line held up relatively well and only allowed quarterback Zack Wilson to be sacked once. He paid off the line’s success by posting his highest completion percentage and yards per attempt of the season. Wilson even sprinkled in a highlight-reel play, directing Corey Davis to go deep himself and hitting his No. 1 receiver for a 53-yard touchdown.
The same rhythm was not found for the Jets running game, though. New York's running backs combined for 20 carries but just 53 rushing yards.
A good run game can provide major relief to a rookie quarterback like Wilson. Atlanta ranks 21st in the NFL in allowing 4.5 yards per carry, which could be a good matchup for the Jets to find their rushing attack.
Defensively, New York has played surprisingly well for a struggling team. The Jets rank seventh in yards per play allowed and are in the top half of yards and points allowed. This could all be thanks to scheduling as their past three opponents have been the Patriots, Broncos and Titans, who were without wide receivers Julio Jones or A.J. Brown.
Fortunately, Atlanta’s offense has looked as lackluster as those three, and the Falcons will be without their top two receivers.
Falcons Find Unlikely Offensive Spark
Losing Ridley will be a major to blow for the Falcons offense. He currently leads the team with 42 targets and their second-most-targeted receiver, Olamide Zaccheaus, has just 13. Fellow starting receiver Russell Gage has also been ruled out.
Ridley's absence will force head coach Arthur Smith to get creative with his offense if Atlanta is to build on last week’s production.
The good news is Smith has two excellent non-receiver options to target.
First is rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. As most rookies do, the No. 4 overall pick has started the season slow with only 3.8 receptions per game. He has been able to produce on limited usage, though, with the Falcons’ second best yards per target of 7.3.
Pitts was expected to be a key contributor given his immense talent. He is now forced into that role sooner than expected.
The second unique pass catcher is journeyman Cordarrelle Patterson.
The Falcons have been able to convert Patterson’s unique skill set into on-field success. He has an absurd 92.2 receiving grade, according to Pro Football Focus, second-highest of all skill players.
With Mike Davis signed during the offseason to be the Falcons' starting running back, we could see Patterson at wide receiver more than usual due to Atlanta’s injuries. He should give them the big play threat they will badly need to keep New York’s safeties off the line of scrimmage.
Defensively, Atlanta was completely gashed by Washington in Week 4, allowing 412 yards and 34 points on its home turf. The Falcons contained the Football Team's backfield to 3.4 yards per carry. However, their coverage unit failed to slow Washington’s passing attack in the fourth quarter.
The Jets passing attack enters the game with bottom-of-the-barrel stats, but it showed big play potential against Tennessee.
Jets-Falcons Pick
For the NFL’s first game in London, it is hard to imagine backing either team.
The Jets have looked impressive for just one half this season, and that was the final 30 minutes last week against the Titans. Even then, Tennessee missed a field goal in overtime to open the door for a Jets victory.
The Falcons, meanwhile, have been outplayed in every game but managed to get things to fall their way against the Giants to get a win.
With neither team proving trustworthy for a whole game, I am instead turning to the first-half spread in this matchup.
In the first half this season, the Jets offense has been atrocious. The New York passing attack averages 5.0 yards per attempt and has zero touchdowns to five interceptions so far in the first half this season. The Jets rushing attack has not been much better, averaging 3.4 yards per carry with one first-half touchdown on the season.
The defense shows a similar struggle. In the first half, the Jets have allowed a passer rating of 103.3 and 8.3 yards per attempt.
All of those struggles have led to the Jets being outscored 55-10 in the first half this year.
New York might make halftime adjustments and come back on Sunday, but I am trusting them to continue struggling early.
Pick:Atlanta 1H -1.5 (play to -2.5)
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