The Tennessee State Tigers take on the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville, TN. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on SEC Network+.
Tennessee is favored by -32 points on the spread, and the total is set at 157.5 points.
Here’s my Tennessee State vs. Tennessee predictions and college basketball picks for November 20, 2025.
Tennessee State vs Tennessee Prediction
My Pick: Tennessee -32
My Tennessee State vs Tennessee best bet is on the Volunteers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Tennessee State vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread
| Tennessee State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+32 -110 | 157.5 -110 / -110 | OFF |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-32 -110 | 157.5 -110 / -110 | OFF |
Tennessee State vs Tennessee NCAAB Betting Preview
Nolan Smith, famous for playing basketball at Duke and somehow not understanding analytics (Google it), took over as head coach of Tennessee State following an illustrious career as an assistant to Kenny Payne at Louisville, among other stops.
That track record has led some (me) to want to fade Tennessee State whenever possible despite its considerable roster talent.
To Smith’s credit, his Tigers are 1-1 against the spread and they gave an impressive effort against Nashville rival Belmont a couple weeks back.
But Tennessee is no Belmont.
The Vols are famous for bludgeoning inferior competition, especially inferior competition stupid enough to play up-tempo against them. This season, Tennessee has beaten mid-major foes by 15, 39, 30 and 25, scoring over 90 points in three of those four games.
That’s par for the course for Rick Barnes and the Vols the past few years – they routinely stomp the little guy by 20, 30, 40, even 50 points.
On Thursday, Tennessee State is the little guy.
The obvious matchup advantage for Tennessee in this game is the offensive glass, where the Vols lead the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Tennessee State severely lacks size and has no chance against the Vols on the boards.
Stopping Tennessee in the paint will also be a challenge, as Tennessee State ranks among the bottom in the country in field goal attempt rate allowed at the rim and in the paint and in field goal percentage allowed at the rim and in the paint.
This is despite the fact the Tigers have played just Western Kentucky and Belmont, two teams that are less physical and paint dominant than Tennessee.
On the other end, how will Tennessee State score points consistently? Its only potential avenue is in transition, where Tennessee has been slightly mortal this season (though … not really).
But more transition equals more possessions, and more possessions is bad news for the team with the talent disadvantage.
In the half-court, Tennessee State doesn’t have a ton of shooters, and Tennessee is consistently one of the most difficult teams to score on in the paint on an annual basis. There will be no second chances against the nation’s fifth-best defense (per KenPom).
Tennessee State has talent — guys like Dante Harris have played at the highest level, and second-year Division I players Aaron Nkrumah and Travis Harper II are off to a blazing start.
But Tennessee is a different beast, one that has a track record of dominance and can’t simply be beaten by one or two individual creators.
Expect the Vols to open this one up and win handily.
My Pick: Tennessee -32
