Florida State vs. NC State Odds & Picks for Week 6: Can Wolfpack Bounce Back?
Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: NC State quarterback Devin Leary.
Editor's Note: Florida State vs. NC State has been delayed due to an issue with NC State's stadium lighting.
Florida State vs. NC State Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
Both Florida State and NC State try to rebound from their first losses of the season when they meet in Raleigh on Saturday night.
Florida State probably shouldn't have lost to Wake Forest this past weekend, owning a 52% post-game win expectancy.
Mike Norvell has the Seminoles trending in the right direction, but to continue their upward trajectory back to being one of the blue bloods of college football, these are the types of games they have to win.
NC State hung with Clemson but was unable to finish the game, losing 30-20 on the road.
The Wolfpack had high hopes coming into the season and were one of the dark horses to make the College Football Playoff. If they want to keep their ACC title hopes alive, this game is a must-win.
Florida State Seminoles
Seminoles Offense
The Florida State offense has vastly improved from last season. The Seminoles rank 12th in EPA/Play, gaining 6.6 yards per play. They also come in at 26th in Success Rate.
A lot of their offensive resurgence has to do with the improvement and progression of Jordan Travis as a passer. In 2021, he averaged 7.9 yards per attempt and owned an 82.3 PFF passing grade with 11 big-time throws and six turnover-worthy plays, which are pretty good numbers.
This season he's averaging 9.7 yards per attempt and has a 90.7 PFF passing grade with eight big-time throws and no turnover-worthy plays.
Three touchdowns through the air so far for Jordan Travis today 😎🍢 #FSUpic.twitter.com/rOwriI1aoA
— Tomahawk Nation (@TomahawkNation) October 1, 2022
With that being said this secondary fro NC State is the best he'll face all season.
Florida State's three-back rushing attack has also been very effective, averaging 5.3 yards per carry and ranking 16th in Rushing Success Rate.
While Florida State is able to move the ball up and down the field, it's struggled to cash in on its opportunities. The Seminoles are averaging only 3.26 points per drive that ends beyond the opponent's 40-yard line, which ranks 51st in the nation.
Seminoles Defense
Florida State's defense has been very poor this season. The Seminoles rank 101st in Success Rate Allowed, 91st in EPA/Play Allowed and 128th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
It's almost astonishing how bad Florida State has been at keeping opponents out of the end zone once they get into Seminole territory. Florida State opponents have amassed 21 drives inside its 40-yard line, and the Noles allowed 127 points on those 21 drives (5.09 points per opportunity allowed).
If a team is going to stop NC State's offense, it's going to have to slow down quarterback Devin Leary — something I'm not sure Florida State can do.
FSU ranks 95th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 81st in EPA/Pass and 85th in terms of a coverage grade, per PFF. It's going to be a long night for this Florida State defense.
NC State Wolfpack
Wolfpack Offense
Leary is really not having a very good season. He's averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt, owns a 65.6 PFF passing grade and has seven big-time throws compared to seven turnover-worthy plays. That's really surprising considering his PFF passing grade sat all the way up at 85.1 last season.
The reason for his decline is a mixture of two things.
First, his receivers haven't done him any favors, as they currently have a 9.3% drop percentage, which is one of the highest marks in college football.
Secondly, he hasn't performed well under pressure. The offensive line has done a good job of protecting him because he's under pressure on only about 20% of his dropbacks. But when he is pressured, he's gone 9-for-29 for 138 yards and three turnover-worthy plays.
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Image via PFF
The fact that NC State is struggling to run the ball hasn't done Leary any favors. The Pack rank 76th in Rushing Success Rate, 75th in EPA/Rush and 91st in rushing explosiveness.
However, the offensive line has been getting a good push up front, ranking 35th in Offensive Line Yards and owning the 27th-best run-blocking grade, per PFF.
Wolfpack Defense
NC State was projected to have one of the best defenses in the country coming into the season. It returned 10 starters from a defense that was top-five in Success Rate Allowed in 2021.
It's continued its excellence in 2022, allowing only 4.8 yards per play (28th in FBS) and ranking sixth in Success Rate Allowed. The Wolfpack are also 17th in EPA/Play.
Clemson did gain 5.2 yards per play against NC State last weekend, but that's the first time this season an opponent has averaged over 5.0 yards per play against it.
The Pack have an incredibly experienced front seven that's very stout against the run. They're allowing only 3.5 yards per carry while ranking 18th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 20th in Defensive Line Yards and 16th in Stuff Rate. So, they should have no problem slowing down Florida State's rushing attack.
Travis is in for a rude awakening because this NC State secondary is absolutely elite. The Wolfpack allow only 6.3 yards per attempt and rank fifth in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 13th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Travis didn't play in this game last season, but the Wolfpack held McKenzie Milton to just 5.3 yards per attempt and a 58.6 PFF passing grade.
Florida State vs. NC State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida State and NC State match up statistically:
Florida State Offense vs. NC State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 16 | 18 |  |
| Line Yards | 31 | 20 | |
| Pass Success | 16 | 5 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 92 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 47 | 27 | |
| Finishing Drives | 51 | 37 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
NC State Offense vs. Florida State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 76 | 87 | |
| Line Yards | 35 | 108 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 95 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 27 | 38 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 78 | |
| Finishing Drives | 60 | 128 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 80 | 93 |
| PFF Coverage | 85 | 23 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 109 | 25 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.3 (84) | 26.8 (73) |
| Rush Rate | 56.5% (47) | 46.3% (106) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Florida State vs. NC State Betting Pick
Even though Leary and the Wolfpack offense haven't played to the level everyone expected this season, the most important stat going into this game is Florida State's rank of 128th in Defensive Finishing Drives. On the other side, NC State ranks 60th in Offensive Finishing Drives.
Additionally, the Wolfpack defense should be able to slow down Travis, who hasn't seen a defense this good all season.
I have NC State projected as -6.7 favorites, so I like the value on the Wolfpack at -3 or better.
Pick: NC State -3 or Better
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