Charlotte vs. Georgia State Odds & Picks: Bet Saturday’s Big Underdog
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- Charlotte heads south on Saturday to take on Georgia State in a Week 3 Group of Five matchup.
- The Panthers enter as 20-point favorites, but there may be betting value on the other side.
- Stuckey breaks down Charlotte vs. Georgia State and shares his top betting pick below.
Charlotte vs. Georgia State Odds
| Charlotte Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +725 |
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
Two winless teams that had high expectations coming into the season will face off on Saturday night in Atlanta. Both are looking to get their seasons back on track before the start of conference play.
Does Charlotte still have a pulse after three embarrassing losses? Who will start at quarterback for the 49ers? Will Georgia State come out flat for this matchup after two tough losses against Power Five opponents? Let's dig in.
Charlotte 49ers
I don't have too many positive things to say about Charlotte after its 0-3 start, which includes three blowout losses to a Power Five team (Maryland), a Group of Five team (Florida Atlantic) and an FCS team (William & Mary) at home.
The 49ers had one of the nation's worst defenses last year, which is why head coach Will Healy brought in a new defensive coordinator in the offseason.
Greg Brown, who has NFL coaching experience, wanted to simplify things on that end to address the multitude of issues in 2021. However, it doesn't seem like much has changed so far this season.
To date, Charlotte has allowed 12.1 yards per pass and 5.9 yards per rush. Both rank in the bottom-five nationally. Yikes.
The offense has also been a bit of a disappointment, but that's more of a result of losing starting quarterback Chris Reynolds, who some thought could be in the running for Offensive Player of the Year in the conference.
However, he went down with an injury in the first half of the season opener, and hasn't played since.
Charlotte then lost its backup to injury, leading to its third-stringer starting last week.
That's even more problematic when you consider Charlotte can't run the ball a lick.
If and when Reynolds comes back (he practiced in full this week), Charlotte should still have a very explosive passing attack with one of the strongest wide receiver groups at the Group of Five level.
Georgia State Panthers
With all of the returning experience they had at their disposal, there was a lot of optimism surrounding the Panthers coming into the season, especially after closing the 2021 season with a 7-1 record, capped off by a 31-point bowl victory over Ball State.
Despite the 0-2 start, I don't think there's reason to panic in Atlanta.
Those two losses came against South Carolina and North Carolina as at least touchdown underdogs.
In the opener against the Gamecocks on the road, Georgia State actually finished with more total yards but couldn't overcome two blocked punt touchdowns (and two other SC 50-plus yard field goals).
Then last week at home against UNC, Georgia State rallied to take a seven-point lead late in the fourth quarter before UNC scored the final 14 to win by seven in a very competitive game statistically.
Georgia State has a run-first offense that starts with dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger. However, Grainger has not seemingly progressed as a passer. He's just 23-of-53 (43.4%) for under 300 yards through two games, but does at least have a 4-1 TD-INT ratio.
Only New Mexico State and UMass have a lower completion percentage among non-service academies in 2022.
Defensively, the Panthers run a 3-4 that excels at generating pressure from the linebackers. However, the secondary is a bit vulnerable in pass coverage with a few question marks outside of safety Antavious Lane.
Charlotte vs. Georgia State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Charlotte and Georgia State match up statistically:
Charlotte Offense vs. Georgia State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 114 | 94 | |
| Line Yards | 130 | 36 | |
| Pass Success | 105 | 62 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 120 | 108 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 51 | |
| Finishing Drives | 115 | 107 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Georgia State Offense vs. Charlotte Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 96 | 131 | |
| Line Yards | 60 | 83 | |
| Pass Success | 106 | 131 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 117 | 111 | |
| Havoc | 63 | 127 | |
| Finishing Drives | 116 | 53 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 46 | 121 |
| PFF Coverage | 131 | 61 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 105 | 48 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.4 (51) | 23.0 (19) |
| Rush Rate | 44.2% (109) | 63.9% (18) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Charlotte vs. Georgia State Betting Pick
This is a tough spot for Georgia State on paper. After losing two hard-fought games against Power Five opponents, it will host lowly Charlotte prior to the start of conference play.
There's a chance the Panthers come out a bit flat here and potentially won't be too concerned with running this one up late — although the Panthers shouldn't face too much resistance using their rushing attack to move up-and-down the field.
Charlotte has been dreadful in every facet across the board to start the season, but didn't look bad in the first half of its opener against Florida Atlantic before its starting quarterback (and team leader) went down with an injury.
I think there's a good chance Reynolds plays this weekend after everything I've read, which would make Charlotte a play here at +20 or better.
Charlotte's potent passing attack should have enough success against a vulnerable Georgia State secondary to stay within the number, and/or sneak in the backdoor if necessary.
Pick: Charlotte +20 or better
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