Saturday College Football Odds, Picks for Texas Tech vs. Kansas: How to Bet This Big 12 Game (Oct. 16)

Texas Tech vs. Kansas Odds

Texas Tech heads to Lawrence, Kansas, this weekend as it looks to continue its long-standing dominance against Kansas. Historically the Red Raiders have had success against the Jayhawks, winning 13 of the last 14 contests.

Texas Tech comes into the game in a tough spot, with this being its third road game in the last four matchups. The Red Raiders are 4-2 this season with convincing wins against Houston and West Virginia.

Kansas is 1-4 with its most recent loss being a thumping from Iowa State, 59-7.

Texas Tech is 3-3 against the spread so far this season, failing to cover the spread in its two losses to Texas and TCU and in a win against Stephen F. Austin. The Red Raiders have hit the over three times this season and only one of those games was a win.

The Jayhawks have yet to cover the spread this season. The only outing of the season they were favored in was against FCS competitor South Dakota and they failed to cover as 11-point favorites. They have hit the over in four of six games this season, with all of them being losses.

Will Texas Tech be able to cover against a Kansas defense that is one of the worst in the nation?

Texas Tech will look to rely on its offense to exploit the lowly Kansas defense as it tries to right the ship after a big loss to TCU last week.

Saturday, Oct. 16

4 p.m. ET

ESPN+

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech Offense

The Texas Tech offense has been plagued by injuries in recent weeks. The Red Raiders are missing their starting quarterback, running back and wide receiver.

They haven’t thrown for a touchdown in back-to-back weeks even though they rank ninth in the nation in Success Rate. Instead, they have been relying on the run game, tallying six rushing scores over the last two games.

With QB Tyler Shough out for a long period of time due to a broken collarbone, they have turned to senior Henry Colombi to run the offense.

Running back Tahj Brooks (questionable) has been replaced by the committee of SaRodorick Thompson and Xavier White for the time being as he recovers from a leg injury.

Expect the Red Raiders' offense to continue their ground-and-pound approach against a Jayhawks' defense that has had massive problems against the run.

A soft Kansas defense will be a good matchup for Colombi to build confidence as he fills in at quarterback.

Texas Tech Defense

The Red Raiders' defense hasn’t been without its own injury problems. However, they haven’t been as systemic as the offensive injuries.

They are without defensive back Marquis Waters for the season and defensive back Malik Dunlap remains questionable for Saturday’s game.

The Texas Tech defense has left a lot to be desired, ranking 113th in Scoring Defense and allowing 34.3 points per game this season. This has led to poor average starting field position for the offense throughout the season as the defense has had a hard time getting stops early in drives.

From a Havoc standpoint, they have been relatively successful, ranking in the top 50% nationally. This mitigates some of the large tallies they have given up to opposing offenses.

The Texas Tech defense has faced some stiff challenges with a relatively difficult schedule so far this season.

Facing a Kansas team that ranks near the bottom of the barrel in total offense should present an opportunity for the Red Raiders to get back on track as they position themselves for bowl eligibility.

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Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas Offense

The Kansas offense has had a very hard time getting things going this season. They rank 122nd in the nation in scoring offense, putting up only 17.2 points per game.

When the offense does get the chance to score, they haven’t had success. They rank 117th in the nation in points per opportunity, which measures their ability to put points on the scoreboard when they are inside the opponents' 40-yard-line.

Dual-threat quarterback Jason Bean leads the team in both rushing and passing yards this season. Bean is seventh in the Big 12 in offensive yards per game, averaging 228.

True freshman running back Devin Neal has been getting traction with the offense in recent weeks, averaging 5.9 yards per carry in the last two games.

The bright spot for Kansas has been the offensive line in recent weeks. The line is developing chemistry with the same starting unit appearing the last three games in a row. They have allowed only one sack in the last three games after giving up six sacks against Coastal Carolina in the second game of the season.

There is still plenty of room for improvement as Kansas ranks in the bottom quartile in both rushing success and pass blocking this season.

Kansas Defense

The Kansas defense is going to be the lynchpin to the analysis here. They rank second-to-last in FBS scoring defense, allowing over 43 points per game.

In defensive Havoc, they also rank second-to-last in all of the FBS, reflecting their inability to disrupt opposing offenses.

The spider chart below comparing the Texas Tech offense to the Kansas defense does an excellent job of capturing how overmatched this Jayhawks' defense will be.

While they do matchup from an explosiveness standpoint, I would heavily discount that because explosiveness has the least statistical significance of the five factors.

The Jayhawks are going to be very overwhelmed by the Red Raiders. Passing defense has been the bright spot for Kansas but Texas Tech comes into this game as a reformed rushing team.

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Texas Tech vs. Kansas Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and Kansas match up statistically:

Texas Tech Offense vs. Kansas Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	57	123
Line Yards	57	127
Pass Success	32	130
Pass Blocking**	71	106
Big Play	45	128
Havoc	32	126
Finishing Drives	34	128
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Kansas Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	107	114
Line Yards	97	82
Pass Success	108	68
Pass Blocking**	117	74
Big Play	110	49
Havoc	96	84
Finishing Drives	116	129
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	117	81
Coverage	84	122
Middle 8	95	42
SP+ Special Teams	11	96
Plays per Minute	62	107
Rush Rate	50.% (90)	60.5% (32)

Texas Tech has a large advantage in the statistical matchups on both sides of the ball.

There are a couple of items worth noting, though.

The Kansas defense is better against the pass. This will reinforce the Red Raiders' run game that has been established the last two weeks.

With Texas Tech exhibiting more emphasis on the run and Kansas rushing on 60% of plays, I have ruled out a bet on the over even though my model is projecting 72 points to be scored.

Texas Tech vs. Kansas Betting Pick

Texas Tech has been dealing with injuries but has been able to adjust accordingly by focusing on the run game.

As Colombi settles into directing the offense, he should be poised to break the two-game passing touchdown drought as the Red Raiders prepare for a tough back half of their schedule.

This matchup heavily favors the Texas Tech offense given how bad the Kansas defense has been this season. Lay the points here.

Pick: Texas Tech -16.5