Purdue vs. Maryland Betting Odds & Picks: Expect Both Offenses to Shine
Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images. Pictured: Charlie Jones (Purdue)
- The Purdue Boilermakers and Maryland Terrapins meet for a Saturday Big Ten college football matchup in Week 6.
- The Terrapins enter as short favorites at -3, but we see betting value on the total.
- Check out Alex Hinton's full betting guide and pick for this Big Ten battle below.
Purdue vs. Maryland Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
Purdue and Maryland will both come into this weekend's game while riding a wave of momentum following big victories last week.
Purdue went into Minnesota and not only covered as 9.5-point underdogs, but also pulled off the outright win to knock off the previously undefeated Golden Gophers, 20-10.
The Boilermakers improved to 3-2 overall and 1-1 in the Big Ten.
Maryland bounced back from its eight-point loss at Michigan by beating up the Wolverines’ in-state rival. Maryland defeated Michigan State, 27-13, and covered as 7.5-point favorites in the process.
The Terps improved to 4-1 for the second straight season and are now 1-1 in Big Ten play.
This will be the fourth meeting between Maryland and Purdue all-time and the third as Big Ten members. The Terps lead the series 2-1, but the Boilermakers won the last meeting, 40-14, in 2019.
This year’s matchup features two of the nation’s better passing attacks. Could that lead to a shootout?
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue caught a break last week with Minnesota's star running back Mohamed Ibrahim unexpectedly out of the lineup.
However, the Boilermakers deserve credit for holding Minnesota to 47 rushing yards on 1.8 yards per carry and 304 yards of total offense.
Purdue picked off three Tanner Morgan passes as well, with safety Cam Allen coming away with two of them. For his efforts, Allen was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week.
The Boilermakers were also boosted by the return of quarterback Aidan O'Connell. He did not post the best stat line (27-for-40, 199 yards and two interceptions), but he delivered some timely throws when his team needed him.
This season, O'Connell is completing nearly 65% of his tosses with 1,199 yards passing, eight touchdowns and three interceptions.
Purdue ranks 27th in passing yards per game and 54th in Passing Success Rate. Few teams put the ball in the air more than Purdue, which throws on nearly 60% of its offensive snaps.
While Maryland has an edge in Passing Success Rate defensively, O'Connell likely will not be under much pressure. The Terrapins are 121th in Pass Rush Grade.
Last week, Purdue got more than we have come to expect from its rushing attack. The Boilermakers ran for 160 yards, led by freshman Devin Mockobee's 112 yards and a touchdown.
Mockobee also leads the team in rushing with 249 yards on 6.7 yards per carry, and is tied for the team lead with three touchdowns.
Purdue just ranks 77th in Rushing Success Rate, which favors Maryland. However, Purdue will have the edge in both Line Yards and Havoc.
O'Connell's top target has been Iowa transfer Charlie Jones, who has been a revelation this season. Jones is second in the country with 47 receptions and seven touchdowns, and is third with 588 yards.
Tight end Payne Durham has 21 catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns. He will contend for All-Big Ten honors.
Considering the opponent, Purdue turned in its best defensive performance of the season last week. The Boilermakers now rank 36th nationally in scoring defense, 16th in yards per carry allowed and 27th in yards per play allowed.
Purdue is also sixth in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
However, Purdue ranks just 85th in Pass Coverage Grade, and it could be in for a long day against the Maryland passing attack.
Maryland Terrapins
Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa is quietly putting together one of the best seasons in the nation. The junior is completing 75.5% of his passes (second nationally), has thrown for 1,416 yards (20th nationally) and has eight touchdowns to four interceptions.
In 11 home starts in his career, he has averaged 302.4 passing yards per game.
Tagovailoa distributes the ball to his playmakers as well as any quarterback in the country. Through five games, six Terrapins already have double-digit receptions.
Wide receiver Rakim Jarrett leads the team with 20 receptions for 249 yards and two touchdowns. Wide receiver Jeshaun Jones is just behind him with 19 receptions for 253 yards and two touchdowns, as well.
Tight end Corey Dyches has nearly already matched the numbers from his freshman campaign with 18 receptions for 216 yards.
Maryland has a thunder-and-lightning running back tandem in freshmen Roman Hemby and Antwain Littleton II.
Hemby leads the team with 369 yards on 6.5 yards per carry and three touchdowns.
Littleton II has 267 yards on 6.8 yards per carry and a team-leading six touchdowns. He has scored a touchdown in six straight games dating back to last season.
The diversity of Maryland's pass rush has been an early storyline this season. The Terrapins have nine different players who have recorded a sack this season, led by Henry Chibueze with two.
However, the Terrapins are just 69th in sacks, 121th in Pass Rush Grade and 108th in Havoc.
Safety Beau Brade leads the team with 40 tackles and one interception, while linebacker Jaishawn Barham is turning in a great freshman season. He is second on the team with 29 tackles (fourth nationally among freshmen), is tied for the team lead with 2.5 tackles for loss and has a sack this season.
Purdue vs. Maryland Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and Maryland match up statistically:
Purdue Offense vs. Maryland Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 77 | 64 | |
| Line Yards | 57 | 91 | |
| Pass Success | 54 | 42 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 66 | 121 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 108 | |
| Finishing Drives | 45 | 14 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Maryland Offense vs. Purdue Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 62 | 6 | |
| Line Yards | 23 | 36 | |
| Pass Success | 57 | 40 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 22 | 32 | |
| Havoc | 46 | 46 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 24 | 32 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 115 | 22 |
| PFF Coverage | 82 | 50 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 104 | 6 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (39) | 26.8 (76) |
| Rush Rate | 41.1% (126) | 48.3% (96) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Purdue vs. Maryland Betting Pick
Maryland averages 35 points per game and has scored at least 27 points in seven straight games.
I like Maryland's chances to score 30+ this week. It might not have a ton of success running the ball, but Purdue ranks 82nd in Pass Coverage Grade and 115th in tackling. A few missed tackles could turn into big plays with the Terrapins' skill players.
Purdue averages nearly 33 points per game and is top-40 in tempo. O'Connell should have a ton of time to throw against this Maryland defense. He could have a big day distributing to his receivers, particularly Jones.
This is a game in which the ball should be in the air a ton, which could lead to quick scores and the clock stopping on incompletions.
With the total at 58.5, I have to take the over, as I expect this game to hit 60 points. I would play it up to 62.5.
Pick: Over 58.5
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