MLB Props Odds and Picks: Bets for Mitch Keller & Glenn Otto (Wednesday, July 6)
Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Mitch Keller.
- Fourteen MLB games take place on Wednesday, meaning there's almost a full slate of player props to choose from.
- Tanner McGrath has narrowed his picks down to two strikeout totals: one for Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller and one for Texas' Glenn Otto.
- Check out both of McGrath's top player props for Wednesday's MLB games below.
We're going with the top two strikeout props from Action Network's Player Props Tool today. Both of these plays are rated 10/10 based on our internal projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Mitch Keller Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)
| Yankees @ Pirates | |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The effectiveness of Mitch Keller is up for debate. What isn't is his velocity, as his average four-seam has jumped two ticks year-over-year.
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As a result, Keller ranks above the 85th percentile of qualified pitchers in both fastball velocity and fastball spin rate. I think there's some untapped potential for him moving forward.
But whatever happens, Keller has already proven he can cash this number. He's struck out at least four in 10 of his 15 starts this season, a 67% hit rate that would imply -200 odds to the over.
If Keller can't get the heater past a batter, he'll throw a half-decent slider that has forced a whiff rate north of 30%.
The Yankees are the scariest, hardest-hitting lineup in the league. But they strike out at a league-average rate against RHPs (21.4%), and their wRC+ is down about 4% over the last month.
As a result, I'll take a shot with Keller today against the Yanks, especially when our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects him for 5.1 Ks on Wednesday.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-130)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Glenn Otto Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-125)
| Rangers @ Orioles | |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Glenn Otto hasn't been the top prospect we expected him to be, but that can be normal for a rookie trying to cement himself.
While he's striking out only 6.8 batters per nine innings this MLB season, Otto has eclipsed 10 K/9 in every stage of the minors coming up with the Yankees and Rangers.
His slider has a 36% whiff rate. He's proven he has the stuff to strike out professional batters.
For example, he took on these Orioles last season and struck out seven of them over just five innings and 81 pitches. He also cashed over 3.5 Ks in 10 of his first 14 MLB starts before being held to just one strikeout in his last two starts against the Nationals and Mets.
But those two teams rank among the bottom-three MLB teams in strikeout rate this season. Baltimore, meanwhile, has struck out at the seventh-highest rate against RHPs this season (23.6%), and that number has only jumped over the last month (24.6%).
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Otto for a whopping 5.3 Ks on Wednesday, giving us a 22.2% edge over the line being offered on DraftKings.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-125)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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