MLB Prop Picks, Predictions: 5 Best Bets For Dinger Tuesday, Including Shohei Ohtani (June 28)
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Shohei Ohtani
Each Tuesday, FanDuel runs a popular promotion that allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether or not the player you bet on homered, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2021 was 2.44, you will receive an average of $12.20 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop. Even though home runs have been down in the 2022 season thus far, the promotion remains +EV, and there are signs that homers are trending up in the warmer months again.
If you want to learn more on how Dinger Tuesday works, here’s an explainer.
Here are my favorite selections for Tuesday’s slate:
Braves at Phillies, 7:05 p.m. ET
Pick: Kyle Schwarber +350
Kyle Schwarber isn't just one of the hottest hitters in June, but he's fourth in all of MLB in barrel rate this season behind Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Trout.
He's one of four hitters with 20% or better barrel rates and if you look at the prices of the other three hitters on that list to homer, Schwarber is lined cheaper than all of them.
Charlie Morton has been improving considerably for Atlanta in his last few starts, but the aging right-hander has allowed a career high in hard-hit and barrel rate this year.
Philadelphia is a favorable park for homers generally, even if it hasn't quite been so this season. Schwarber hasn't hit curveballs particularly well this year, but he's always mashed fastballs in his career and did perform well against curves in the past, so I don't read too much into small samples on specific pitch types.
White Sox at Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET
Pick: Shohei Ohtani +320
There's a strong wind blowing out tonight at Angel Stadium and that should help provide a home run boost to the game. Add in some mediocre pitching for both sides and this game is prime for homers.
Johnny Cueto has performed admirably at this point in the season with a 3.17 ERA, but his barrel rates and hard hit rates suggest home run regression is coming for him.
The matchup thus is favorable for Shohei Ohtani and I don't need too many other reasons to back one of the best power hitters in the sport at a price over +300 against a mediocre pitcher.
Marlins at Cardinals, 8:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Nolan Arenado +380
Nolan Arenado has five homers in 46 ABs against left-handed pitching this season and has an OPS of .948. Busch Stadium isn't traditionally a big hitters' park, but that has not been the case this season.
I don't know if it's just the small sample, but both the eye test and data suggest the ball is flying a lot more there this year. The price on Paul Goldschmidt isn't good enough for me to get involved, but when you compare across other books, this is clearly +EV when you consider the promo money as well.
Arenado puts a ton of balls in play and so while he doesn't have the best barrel rate, it is the best he's had since 2019 in Colorado.
Dodgers at Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Chris Taylor +370
Coors Field is a must-add for Dinger Tuesday as always, and we've got two southpaws going with Clayton Kershaw and Kyle Freeland.
There's a clear difference in both the starter pitcher quality and the ability of both bullpens.
I know the Dodgers' offense has struggled of late, but I'm looking to them for my Dinger pick. I settled on Taylor because despite his putrid 34% strikeout rate, Taylor is well above average in both hard hit rate and barrel rate.
Freeland is still a pitch-to-contact guy and Taylor should get a few good looks against him on Tuesday.
Orioles at Mariners, 10:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Adley Rutschman +590
Like in Anaheim, there's a strong wind out tonight in Seattle that should help improve the home run potential on both sides.
Robbie Ray has usually had elite strikeout stuff and combined that with getting hit hard when he does make mistakes in the zone. His strikeout numbers have come down this season, though, and the hard contact allowed has remained.
It's difficult for opposing teams to play matchups with Adley Rutschman because he is a switch hitter, which could help him in his at-bats later in the game as well.
He's been better from the left side thus far this season, but Ray has really struggled with giving up the long ball to right-handed bats this year. He's allowed 14 homers and 11 of them have come to righties.
Because the wind is so strongly blowing out, Rutchsman's 7.1% barrel rate may not be elite for a slugger but it's good enough for me to take him as a long shot.
Other picks: Luke Voit SD (+380), Kole Calhoun TEX (+460)
Clear skip games: Detroit at San Francisco, Milwaukee at Tampa Bay
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