Grambling vs Texas Southern Odds, Pick & Prediction

In a rematch of last year’s title game, the No. 1 seed Grambling State Tigers will face the No. 3 seed Texas Southern Tigers for the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) Tournament title.

So far, Grambling State has been on cruise control in the first couple of rounds of the SWAC Tournament, taking out No. 8 seed Alabama State and then gliding past No. 5 seed Bethune-Cookman.

Texas Southern has clawed its way to the title game after defeating No. 6 seed Jackson State and then No. 7 seed Alabama A&M.

As we head into the SWAC postseason Championship game, the story to watch is that of Texas Southern head coach Johnny Jones.

Behind the stewardship of Jones, Texas Sothern has been a force in the SWAC, going for its fourth consecutive postseason title today and has five NCAA tournament appearances in the last seven years.

However, Grambling State has a star coach of its own in Donte Jackson, who made the Tigers one of the most competitive teams in the league. Jackson has led Grambling State to a top seed this season after eclipsing the 100-win mark during his seven-year tenure at the helm.

These two schools clinched two times this season, and the series was evenly split after both teams secured a victory on the road. Both games were decided by three points or less, speaking to how evenly matched these teams are. The game today has all the makings of being a thriller as these two programs meet for the third and final time of the 2024 campaign.

Speaking of evenly matched, the Grand Poohbah of college basketball, KenPom, has Texas Southern and Grambling State ranked as the 268th and 279th teams in the nation, respectively.

If you spend a lot of time in the minutia of the college basketball world, you know that the ranking differential this far down in the standings is negligible at best.

When we dive into the efficiency sub-metrics, namely ADJOE and ADJDE, again, they are nearly right on each other, with Texas Southern ranking 308th and 183rd with Grambling State ranking 313th and 188th, respectively.

You probably wondering what the angle is at this point. With two evenly matched teams that are extremely well-coached, I think we have to hunt for the value another way.

Similar to how the two regular season games went this season, with both being decided by a total of five points, this game is truly toss-up.

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My model projects the fair value for the spread of this game to be inside 0.5 points.

Given how tight these teams match up, this makes perfect sense. What doesn’t make sense is that you can get Gramling State at plus money.

I think there is too much value on No. 1 seed Grambling State, especially north of +120.

It is hard to bet against a Jones-led Texas Southern squad in crunch time, but I believe we are adequately compensated and then some for backing Grambling State.

I recommend betting Grambling State at +100 or longer on the money line as they look to avenge last year’s tournament championship loss to Texas Southern and punch a ticket to the big dance.

Pick: Grambling State ML +124

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