Yankees vs. Mets MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Fireworks in Subway Series (Wednesday, July 27)

Yankees vs. Mets Odds

The second leg of the first half of the Subway Series gets underway Wednesday, with the buzz being palapable.

Max Scherzer will take the ball for the New York Mets opposite New York Yankees starting pitcher Domingo German in a matchup oddsmakers feel should be very good.

So, is there a chance we might see this devolve into a slugfest? Let's take a look and uncover some potential betting value.

New York Yankees

The Yankees are still the best team in baseball judging by record, but they're certainly not the hottest team around by any stretch of the imagination. If you haven't been keeping track, they've now lost a stunning nine games in their last 14, including two to Cincinnati.

For the month of July, though, it has to be said that the Yankees have still been great at the plate. They're first in the game — by a wide margin — with a 143 wRC+, and their strikeout rate of 21.3% is the lowest they've had in a given month to this point. It ranks 12th in baseball and looked great next to a league-best 40 homers and the best walk rate at 10.8%.

Pitching is where it's gotten tricky. The Yankees will send German back to the bump after his disastrous first outing of the season saw him allow five runs on six hits over three innings against the Astros, including three barrels — two of which were homers.

German is coming off a somewhat decent 2021 campaign, however, which saw him pitch to a 4.09 xERA with a solid 23.9% strikeout rate. Still, he did register a .379 xwOBA on contact.

New York Mets

The Mets, for all intents and purposes, are back. They're seated atop the league in the month of July with a 80.6% contact rate and have gone 13-8 to this point after a brutal 13-12 record in June.

New York has made its mark all season long in the contact department and has never produced homers at a high rate. It is just 16th in wRC+ for the month and 13th in longballs, yet the runs have come when they've been needed.

Let's talk about Scherzer for a second here. He's been as good as you could have asked for in 2022 across 12 starts, though there are a few numbers that I'm keying in on for this game.

First would be his 9.8% barrel rate, which is by far the highest of his career and significantly higher than his 6.7% career average. The other would be his .373 xwOBA on contact, which again is higher than league average and a good bit higher than his career mark.

Scherzer has been able to make up for this and then some with an elite 33.8% strikeout rate, but there have been nights — particularly in May — where the strikeouts didn't come and the hits and runs piled up.

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Yankees-Mets Pick

Scherzer has given up two runs in each of his last two outings to worse offenses (Cubs, Padres) than the Yankees. He's had issues with barrels this year considering the sheer volume of them he's given up and the fact that his xwOBA on contact is so high.

The Yankees, as we discussed, are well-positioned to scratch across at least a few off of Scherzer considering they're second in barrels per plate appearances and striking out at the lowest rate they've seen all year.

With that, I love the over here in this latest meeting. German has been a nightmare for years now, and he's never been great at pitching to contact. The Mets will put a bat on just about everything, and judging by German's career 7.4% barrel rate, I like their chances of scoring as well.

Pick: Over 7.5 (+105)