Phillies vs. Dodgers Odds, Preview, Prediction: Runs Are in Store Against Zach Eflin, Julio Urías (Tuesday, June 15)
Meg Oliphant/Getty Images. Pictured: Odubell Herrera and Andrew McCutchen
- The Phillies and Dodgers meet in game two of their series on Tuesday night in Los Angeles.
- Zach Eflin takes the mound for the Phillies against Julio Urias of the Dodgers.
- Mike Ianniello breaks down the matchup and makes his pick below.
Phillies vs. Dodgers Odds
| Phillies Odds | +152 |
| Dodgers Odds | -180 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
The defending World Series champions are finally rounding into form, going 7-3 in the last 10 games to pull within one game of San Francisco for the NL West lead.
Philadelphia is also 7-3 in its last 10, winning three straight series and four games in a row prior to dropping Monday’s series opener 3-1. Both of these teams are playing great and have loads of talent on the roster, so who has the edge Tuesday night?
Steady Eflin Gives Phillies A Chance
Just about every time right-hander Zach Eflin takes the mound, the Phillies know they are going to get six innings of work from him. In his 12 starts this season he has lasted at least six innings in 11 of them. Eflin is 2-5 and has a 3.89 ERA and 3.11 FIP.
Eflin’s strength is his command, and he rarely offers a free pass. His walk percentage is just 3.3%, the lowest in the league. Eflin has a wOBA of .321 but has a solid xwOBA of .296.
Offensively, the Phillies have been a bit disappointing, given the talent in that lineup, although they have picked it up lately. Overall, Philadelphia ranks just 15th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+ this season
Over the last two weeks, though, the Phillies rank sixth in wOBA and in wRC+. Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto, Alex Bohm, Andrew McCutchen and Odubel Herrera are all hitting better than .300 over the last two weeks. Segura has been especially good, batting .395 with a pair of walk-offs.
Defending Champs Rounding Into Form
Guess who leads the Dodgers in wins this season? Is it last year’s Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer? Walker Buehler or Clayton Kershaw maybe? Nope, it is 24-year old left-hander Julio Urías with a 9-2 record.
Just like Eflin, Urías has great control and his 3.6 BB% is tied for second in the league. Urías has a 3.56 ERA and 3.18 FIP this season, and his K/9 rate is at 9.77 this year, up from 7.36 last season.
Urías throws his fastball in the high 90s, but it has gotten hit around this season to a .325 batting average and .396 wOBA. However, he has developed a slurve for the past couple of seasons and it has been fantastic this year. His slurve is allowing just a .135 batting average and .164 wOBA and has a 34.3 K%. His changeup as also been great and he uses his two off speed pitches as his strikeout pitches.
The Dodgers' offense has been one of the best in the league as expected. Even without Corey Seager, LA ranks fifth in wOBA and second in wRC+ this season.
What makes the Dodgers so scary is their offense has been great despite not getting typical production from guys like Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger, the latter of whom looks to be heading back to the injured list. Instead, it has been Max Muncy (currently out), Justin Turner, Chris Taylor and Will Smith who have been more productive and lead the way for the defending champs.
Phillies-Dodgers Pick
As good as both of these pitchers are at throwing strikes, they also allow balls to be put in play. Eflin is allowing a .258 xBA and .296 xwOBA this season and Urías is allowing a .242 xBA and .285 xwOBA.
The Dodgers' lineup is one of the best in the league and putting up runs on just about any pitcher in the league. Eflin has been solid, but he doesn’t have the stuff to mow down this lineup.
Urías has been good, but the Phillies are significantly better against left-handers than righties. They are batting .250 with a .728 OPS against southpaws, compared to .236 with a .685 OPS vs. right-handers.
On the other side, the Dodgers are much better against right-handers like Eflin, batting .251 against right-handed pitchers, compared to just .225 against lefties.
The Phillies have been hitting the ball really well recently, and the Dodgers' bats have been great all season, so I am going to side with the offenses on Wednesday night and take this total to go over 8.5.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-112)
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