2021 PGA Championship Betting Odds & Tiers: Ranking the Field at Kiawah Island From 1 to 156
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Spieth.
KIAWAH ISLAND, S.C. – Value, value and more value. That’s what I see when I look at the board for this week’s PGA Championship here at the Kiawah’s brilliant Ocean Course.
If you came here looking for chalk, perhaps some rehashing of the current odds or replication of the world ranking, I’ve got bad news: You ain’t gonna find it here.
That doesn’t mean I’m completely dismissing the game’s biggest superstars this week. There are a few that I really like to make a serious run at the title, but there are more players in that second tier — those listed anywhere from 30/1 to 70/1 — who really intrigue me here.
With that in mind, let’s get right to the ranking — because let’s face it, you were skipping over this intro to read that part anyway.
1. Marc Leishman (+7000)
How many things can we like about one player? He owns a low ball flight, mashes his long- and mid-irons, can get up and down from anywhere, owns solid form, plays well at majors and has already said this course should suit him well. That should be enough.
2. Viktor Hovland (+2000)
Any ranking of the best players 25-and-under automatically defaults to Collin Morikawa at No. 1 because he’s the only one with a major. As well it should, too, but Hovland is hot on his tail, and a major victory of his own could inspire some debate on this topic.
3. Daniel Berger (+3000)
A popular pick this week — and for good reason, given that his ball-striking numbers were already super impressive, then gained some more steam last week. Berger should find some friendly confines at a Pete Dye course, where his ability to control his shots will be imperative.
4. Rory McIlroy (+1150)
See? Told ya I wouldn’t completely dismiss the big names.
Rory went from an afterthought to the tourney favorite following his Wells Fargo win. Now, he’s the common sense play, fresh off that victory and as the only guy in the field who’s won at Kiawah, but the stars don’t always align like that.
5. Jordan Spieth (+1500)
If he wins this week — a very real possibility — there will someday be documentaries produced on the lightning-speed journey from, “What’s wrong with that guy?” to “Where does he rank among the all-time greats?” as he tries to become the sixth ever with the career grand slam.
6. Cameron Smith (+4650)
It was a big week for “Team Mullet” at the Zurich Classic, as the Aussie duo of Smith and Leishman won in a playoff. This could — and should — be another big week for them, as Smith has been incredibly consistent and rapidly improving at the majors.
7. Patrick Reed (+3500)
Somewhat strangely, Reed has led the PGA TOUR in putting for much of the season while ranking near the bottom in driving distance. I’ve heard, though, that a switch to a new driver has him gaining some much-needed yardage, which could be the relevant puzzle piece for him here.
8. Abraham Ancer (+5500)
There are very few players over the past decade who I believe could’ve skipped right over PGA TOUR winner to major champion, but right now, I’d list Ancer as one of those players. He’s got all the tools; it’s just a matter of time before he owns the trophy to go with ‘em.
9. Justin Thomas (+1450)
Finishes of 26th-13th-21st-42nd in his last four starts since winning The Players Championship sound fine for most mortals, but those results are way below JT’s own expectations for himself. Of course, form or no form, he’s talented enough to show up any week and claim a W.
10. Sungjae Im (+9000)
We always knew he was a ball-striking machine, but Im really got my attention at last November’s Masters, when he seemingly got up-and-down from everywhere. He’ll need that scrambling prowess this week, but I love the combination when he’s got his best stuff.
11. Xander Schauffele (+1700)
If it’s a major championship week, then you know Schauffele is going to show up. When I asked him at the Masters about the secret to playing his best golf at the biggest events, he just laughed, shrugged and said, “I wish I knew.”
He might not know why, but we know to expect it again.
12. Matt Fitzpatrick (+6000)
Not only am I unconcerned about Fitzpatrick missing the cut at last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson, but I actually think it’s completely on-brand. He’s been vocal in the past about enjoying the type of golf where pars matter, so this one should be way more up his alley.
13. Webb Simpson (+4500)
I understand if he burned you with his late WD at the Wells Fargo a few weeks ago, but try to forget about that and instead remember that Simpson leads the PGA TOUR in scrambling this season — the only player to get up-and-down more than 70% of the time.
14. Corey Conners (+7000)
Oddsmakers and the betting public alike might not disrespect Conners exactly, but they’re each treating him like a nice guy on a decent run, not as one of the game’s premier ball-strikers. If he putts even just a tad above average, he should seriously contend this week.
15. Dustin Johnson (+1850)
He owns an unappealing combination of injury (he WD’d with a knee issue prior to last week’s event) and poor recent form (no top-10s in his last half-dozen starts), but there’s still something about the game’s No. 1-ranked player teeing it up in his home state that should get our attention.
16. Collin Morikawa (+3000)
He didn’t exactly sneak up on us last year, but the defending champion certainly won’t go unnoticed this time around.
Fun fact: No player has gone back-to-back at the PGA Championship since way back in 2018 and 2019 when Brooks Koepka did it.
17. Will Zalatoris (+5500)
Speaking of no longer flying under the radar, Zalatoris went from a non-member top-20 machine to everyone’s favorite young player with his runner-up finish at last month’s Masters. Perhaps the best thing about his game is that he shows up with consistency nearly every single week.
18. Gary Woodland (+10000)
It’s been a bit of a roller-coaster season for Woodland, who lost weight, dealt with some injuries and missed time due to a positive COVID-19 result. He’s shown signs of trending in the right direction, though, and his combo of length and trajectory should be on display this week.
19. Keegan Bradley (+7000)
Ten years ago, Bradley shocked the world with a PGA Championship victory in his rookie season. The very next year, he finished T-3 here at Kiawah. Throw in the fact that he’s currently playing some of his best golf in years, and he should be a not-so-sneaky prop play.
20. Si Woo Kim (+13000)
We know he can win on Pete Dye courses, and we know he can win against a world-class field. Quite frankly, I’m very surprised at Si Woo’s odds this week, as he holds more value as an outright play than most others in the same price range.
21. Matt Wallace (+8500)
22. Billy Horschel (+11000)
23. Matt Kuchar (+17500)
24. Tommy Fleetwood (+7500)
25. Sam Burns (+6000)
Following his first career PGA TOUR victory at the Valspar Championship and a runner-up this past weekend at the AT&T Byron Nelson, Burns is firmly entrenched among the game’s best young players and is a guy who will be a popular mid-tier play this week.
26. Harris English (+9000)
27. Scottie Scheffler (+3500)
28. Tyrrell Hatton (+5500)
29. Patrick Cantlay (+4500)
30. Jon Rahm (+1450)
If there’s one pick on this list destined to doom me to the punchlines of Twitter trolls, it’s this one. I’m a huge fan of Rahm’s game and believe he’s going to win a major sooner rather than later, but his recent form has me skittish about placing him any higher on the list than here.
31. Brian Harman (+9000)
32. Shane Lowry (+10000)
33. Jason Kokrak (+13000)
34. Joaquin Niemann (+7000)
35. Sergio Garcia (+11000)
This is a truly astonishing stat: Since the 2017 PGA Championship, Garcia has played a dozen majors and missed the cut in 10 of them. (Plus, he failed to finish inside the top 50 in the other two.) At some point, that’s gotta change for the better.
36. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+17500)
37. Bubba Watson (+7000)
38. Cameron Davis (+22500)
39. Max Homa (+16000)
40. Rickie Fowler (+17500)
I know what you’re thinking — and yes, this is indeed the same Rickie who’s fallen outside the world’s top 100 and needed an exemption for this event. That said, I think the necessity for creativity should spark a little jump in his game at this course.
41. Louis Oosthuizen (+5500)
42. Chris Kirk (+20000)
43. Hideki Matsuyama (+3500)
44. Russell Henley (+22500)
45. Bryson DeChambeau (+1650)
Many people will try to add 2+2 this week, assuming that the game’s longest hitter should own a healthy advantage on the game’s longest golf course. Perhaps, but this week it’s less about how far it goes and more about where it winds up once it gets there.
46. Paul Casey (+5500)
47. Tony Finau (+4000)
48. Charl Schwartzel (+15000)
49. Adam Scott (+11000)
50. Brooks Koepka (+5000)
Yeah, I know — somebody just tape this to Koepka’s refrigerator now. Or maybe he can tweet it out with a GIF of some bully beating up a nerd or something.
I never doubt Brooks’ work ethic or motivation, but I do question how much that knee injury will hamper his game this week.
51. Ryan Palmer (+12500)
52. Victor Perez (+30000)
53. Wyndham Clark (+30000)
54. Kevin Kisner (+30000)
55. Stewart Cink (+12500)
A two-time winner already this season and a guy who played superbly at the Masters, this ranking might admittedly be too far on the low end of the spectrum for Cink, who just keeps plugging along and should at the very least be sticking around for the weekend.
56. Robert Macintyre (+17500)
57. Cameron Tringale (+11000)
58. Matt Jones (+17500)
59. Emiliano Grillo (+11000)
60. Justin Rose (+10000)
What a strange year it’s been so far.
Rose WD’d while in contention during the third round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, took five weeks off, then was the 36-hole leader at the Masters before finishing solo seventh. Since then, he’s played once and missed the cut.
61. Branden Grace (+22500)
62. J.T. Poston (+22500)
63. Danny Willett (+30000)
64. Carlos Ortiz (+17500)
65. Zach Johnson (+22500)
As we’ve seen over the years, lengthening world-class golf courses is hardly daunting to the game’s best players, but if there’s one guy who’s ruing a near-7,900 yard setup, it might be Johnson, whose lack of length should hurt his chances mightily here.
66. Thomas Pieters (+17500)
67. Talor Gooch (+20000)
68. Brendon Todd (+20000)
69. Lee Westwood (+11000)
70. Phil Mickelson (+30000)
He’s no longer one of the world’s best players, but on any given week, Lefty can show signs of the player who held that honor for a quarter-century.
The trick, of course, is trying to figure out which week he’ll show those signs. This one might not be it.
71. Francesco Molinari (+14000)
72. Cameron Champ (+22500)
73. Aaron Wise (+20000)
74. Sebastian Munoz (+25000)
75. K.H. Lee (+22500)
Fresh off his first career victory, Lee should feel like he’s playing with house money this week. That momentum could carry him to a solid start, but at some point, he’s bound to hit a wall of mental exhaustion after putting so much effort into that win.
76. Jason Dufner (+60000)
77. Henrik Stenson (+40000)
78. Lanto Griffin (+17500)
79. Kevin Na (+17500)
80. Garrick Higgo (+14000)
I’m excited to watch this three-time European Tour winner, who’s a mere 22 years old, compete on U.S. soil in what will inevitably be the first of many major championship starts. A product of UNLV, Higgo has what it takes to win a big one someday.
81. Dylan Frittelli (+40000)
82. Ian Poulter (+22500)
83. Alex Noren (+10000)
84. Joel Dahmen (+35000)
85. Jason Day (+11000)
What’s wrong with this former world No. 1 who won this major just six years ago? It’s tough to say, but something is amiss. Day's followed three straight finishes outside the top 30 with three straight missed cuts in his last three starts, so clearly he’s struggling right now.
86. Kevin Streelman (+17500)
87. Jazz Janewattananond (+60000)
88. Bernd Wiesberger (+17500)
89. Harold Varner III (+25000)
90. John Catlin (+40000)
An American who has won three times on the European Tour, Catlin came stateside a week early to ostensibly get his game in shape, only to MC at the Nelson. It will be interesting to see how he fares against the game’s best this week.
91. Brendan Steele (+40000)
92. Erik Van Rooyen (+60000)
93. Thomas Detry (+30000)
94. Steve Stricker (+22500)
95. Charley Hoffman (+14000)
96. Tom Lewis (+60000)
97. Harry Higgs (+60000)
98. Chan Kim (+60000)
99. Adam Hadwin (+30000)
100. Martin Kaymer (+40000)
101.Padraig Harrington (+60000)
102. Sam Horsfield (+6000)
103. Maverick McNealy (+25000)
104. Denny McCarthy (+30000)
105. Mackenzie Hughes (+60000)
106. Kalle Samooja (+60000)
107. Tom Hoge (+60000)
108. Antoine Rozner (+40000)
109. Richy Werenski (+40000)
110. Robert Streb (+60000)
111. Kurt Kitayama (+60000)
112. Aaron Rai (+60000)
113.Takumi Kanaya (+60000)
114. Martin Laird (+40000)
115. Dean Burmester (+40000)
116. Byeong Hun An (+60000)
117. Rasmus Hojgaard (+60000)
118. Chez Reavie (+60000)
119. Andy Sullivan (+60000)
120. Hudson Swafford (+100000)
121. Brian Gay (+60000)
122. George Coetzee (+60000)
123. Brandon Stone (+60000)
124. Peter Malnati (+60000)
125. Lucas Herbert (+60000)
126. Jason Scrivener (+150000)
127. Adam Long (+60000)
128. Jim Herman (+150000)
129. Daniel Van Tonder (+150000)
130. Jimmy Walker (+60000)
131. Sami Valimaki (+60000)
132. Rich Beem (+250000)
133. Rikuya Hoshino (+60000)
134. John Daly (+150000)
135. Y.E. Yang (+200000)
136. Shaun Micheel (+250000)
137. Greg Koch (+250000)
As I write every year, it’s time for full disclosure: The worst part about ranking an entire field is having to place guys at the bottom of the list — and it’s even worse for this event, which offers invitations to 20 club professionals, guys who are the lifeblood of the PGA of America.
I’ve put them each at the bottom here, not to embarrass them, but to simply keep them all together and hope there’s no offense taken in the ranking.
Here’s hoping at least a few of these pros are still around for the weekend rounds. I’ve listed them in strictly alphabetical order — except for Koch, the head professional at Ritz-Carlton GC in Orlando, a place that holds a little special meaning for me personally, as a bunch of mutual buddies have told me they’re supporting their pro in multiple ways this week.
138. Danny Balin (+250000)
139. Peter Ballo (+250000)
140. Alex Beach (+250000)
141. Frank Bensel Jr. (+250000)
142. Tyler Collet (+250000)
143. Ben Cook (+250000)
144. Mark Geddes (+250000)
145. Larkin Gross (+250000)
146. Derek Holmes (+250000)
147. Rob Labritz (+250000)
148. Brad Marek (+250000)
149. Tim Pearce (+250000)
150. Ben Polland (+250000)
151. Patrick Rada (+250000)
152. Sonny Skinner (+250000)
153. Stuart Smith (+250000)
154. Joe Summerhays (+250000)
155. Omar Uresti (+200000)
156. Brett Walker (+250000)
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